Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 11th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Chargers. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Chargers’ Passing Defense
According to DraftKings Josh Allen is currently +2500 (#5) to win MVP, Stefon Diggs is +450 (#2) & Cole Beasley is +10000 (#19) to lead the league in receiving yards, and the Buffalo Bills are +2200 (#10) to win the Super Bowl. All of this represents a stunning turn of events for a team that has not finished top-10 in Passing Offense since 2002 and just a few years back was dealing with a 17-year playoff drought. With a remaining schedule consisting of teams with a combined record of 31-29 (.517) and an average Pass Defense DVOA of 4.0% (~ #13) it’s looking good for the Bills to win their first division title since 1995 led by one of the best passing attacks in the NFL.
This week the Bills will play the Los Angeles Chargers who currently rank 17th (10.1%) in Pass Defense DVOA. Looking at the Chargers depth chart and one could ponder why this team is in the bottom half of the league instead of closer to the top of it. Underperforming. It starts up front with a duo of DEs in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram who between 2016 and 2019 combined for 72.5 sacks & 5 Pro Bowls. When healthy and in form these two have the ability to completely disrupt opposing passing attacks but thus far in 2020 have combined for just 4.5 sacks. It ends in a secondary with a core group of Michael Davis (CB), Casey Hayward (CB), Rayshawn Jenkins (SS), and Nasir Adderley (FS). Just a few years back Hayward would have headlined this group as a ball hawk, shutdown corner, but at 31 seems to have lost a step in 2020. This means that the focus may be on CB2, Michael Davis, who is quietly supplanting Hayward as the #1 CB. Still, whatever way you slice it this once dangerous secondary no longer is deserving of such a moniker.
If this game does turn into a shootout the Bills look to be playing the inferior pass defense. Diggs quickness and speed are something that Hayward should not be able to match. The best WR2 the Chargers have played is Robby Anderson, who still managed 5 catches for 55 yards on 5 targets, which means one of Cole Beasley, John Brown, or Gabe Davis should find success throughout Sunday. Of course, this is all dependent on the Bills pass block protecting the edge and giving Allen time to throw. Doing that will require slowing down a pass rush that is getting to the Quarterback among the best in the league at a 11.1% (#7) Hurry Rate and an 8.5% (#13) but struggling to bring QBs down with just 17 (#24) sacks.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Chargers’ Rushing Defense
While the Bills have seen a massive increase in Passing Offense, they have also seen a gigantic reduction in ability to run the ball. Ranking 27th in the NFL with just 97.6 rushing Y/G the Bills are averaging nearly 40 less yards on the ground per game this season compared to 2019. HC Sean McDermott is even quoted as saying, about the Bills’ run game, “It’s a legitimate concern. We’ve got to get it figured out”. This has resulted in some odd moves including the possible benching of Mitch Morse who by all measures has been playing at a Pro-Bowl caliber this season. Still, something is not quite right with the rushing attack with the root cause more correlated to the OL than the RBs.
We’ve already covered the DEs in the passing section of this post but the rest of the front seven does have some talent sprinkled throughout it. In the middle of the DL the Chargers use a 3-man rotation of 32-year-old Linval Joseph, 3rd year pro Justin Jones, and 2019 1st round pick Jerry Tillery. These 3 behemoths consistently plug the interior of the line for the #15 ranked rush defense that is currently giving up 115.3 yard per game. Rookie Kenneth Murray stars in the middle for the Chargers where in his first season he is on pace for 99 tackles. Next to him is Kyzir White who is currently on COVID IR and questionable for Sunday’s game. Losing Kyzir would be a massive blow for an already thin LB group.
McDermott and Daboll insist that they have a good plan moving forward to get the running game back on track. Does this mean more Josh Allen runs? Could this mean more traditional ISO instead of zone reads? Could this mean they are about to flip the OL upside down? Frankly I have no idea what the plan is but if I am going to speculate here is a little “out there” prediction. Josh Allen under center, Reggie Gilliam at FB, and Moss/Singletary at HB. The problem to me seems to be the RBs getting hit in the backfield prior to getting past the LOS. With Gilliam in the backfield, who initially was meant as a FB replacement for Patrick DiMarco, the expectation would be that he takes the initial attacker and give a player like Singletary the extra step needed to move to the next level. Will this happen? Who knows? Regardless it will be interesting to see where the Bills go with the run game on Sunday.
EDGE: Chargers 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Chargers’ Passing Offense
Coming off the Bye Week the Sean McDermott led Bills are 3-0 but are giving up 387 yards and 23 points per game to their opposition. The hope coming out of this bye week is that improved health can help the Bills further improve their defense who have played better over recent weeks but are still a shadow of their 2019 selves. The Bills should get back DBs Levi Wallace (CB), Josh Norman (CB), and Dean Marlowe (S) suring up a secondary which has struggled to stay healthy and stop opposing passing attacks all season long. In just 10 games this season the Bills have given up more than 295 passing yards 4 times, compared that to a group that from 2017-2019 only had 5 such games and there isn’t much more that needs to be said about the Bills play against the pass in 2020.
And it won’t be easy to correct it this week with a rookie QB named Justin Herbert, who is lighting up the league, coming to Buffalo. In Herbert’s first 9 starts he has just one game throwing for under 260 yards. That one game came against the Miami Dolphins where Herbert threw for just 187 yards and was picked off by Xavien Howard when Herbert tried to fit a pass into double coverage nearly 20 yards down field. Herbert is extremely talented but still makes rookie mistakes, as a rookie, from time to time. He is obviously helped by a talented trio in Mike Williams (WR), Hunter Henry (TE), and Keenan Allen (WR). Mike Williams was the #7 overall pick in 2017, Hunter Henry has been groomed since 2016 as the heir apparent to Antonio Gates, and Keenan Allen may just be the most underrated WR in the NFL.
Yes, the most underrated by far, and possibly the most underrated player in the entire NFL. Allen leads the NFL in receptions through 10 games reeling in an incredible 81 passes, on pace for 130 through the end of the season. He is also far, and away Herbert’s go to target as he has targeted Allen an astounding 104 times in 9 games, where no other receiver has been targets more than 60 times. This is the key to the entire matchup, if Buffalo can find a way to shutdown Keenan Allen, whether through consistent double teams, pressure at the line, or even having Tre White follow hum, it should make Herbert uncomfortable enough to a point where the Bills may actually have a chance of winning this matchup.
EDGE: Chargers 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Chargers’ Rushing Offense
While it did take a Hail Mary for the Cardinals to beat the Bills that’s not the main cause of the loss. When as a team you give up 217 rushing yards on just 35 attempts with a long of only 28 yards it means you are getting gashed consistently play after play by all different players. It’s the consistency of running that is the biggest concern as Cardinals RBs rushed for 5+ yards on 15 out of their 24 carries. The Next Gen charts are telling of the issue, both Drake and Edmonds found nearly all of their success when attacking the C gaps. This means one of two things, either the DEs are driving to far up field or the LBs are not breaking down and making plays at the LOS. Or the problem is both. But whatever is going on the Bills need to figure this out sooner than later or any hope of a deep run in the playoffs will be stopped short.
Injuries for the Chargers may end up helping the Bills correct their run defense woes. RB1 Austin Ekeler, likely not playing. RB2 Justin Jackson, on injured reserve with a knee injury. RB3 Kalen Ballage, questionable with an ankle injury. All of this could leave the Chargers with just 2020 4th round pick Joshua Kelly and career journeyman Troymaine Pope, who has only 36 career carries, as the lone healthy RBs on the roster. None of these RBs should strike fear into the hearts of the Bills defense but with the likes of Darrell Henderson (LAR), Frank Gore (NYJ), and Damien Harris (NE) all having success against Buffalo who knows what to expect from this group.
This means the key to this matchup is not the RBs but the trenches where Bills, whichever rotation they choose to use, will need to compete with a solid OL. 3-year starter Sam Tevi is at LT, injury riddled but highly touted Forrest Lamp is at LG, Guard Dan Feeney fills in for injured Center Mike Pouncey, Ex Bills-South and 5-time Pro Bowler Trai Turner stands in at RG, and longtime GB RT Bryan Bulaga covers the right side. These well known names make for a solid OL, that has been playing well in 2020, meaning that if the Bills are not prepared for a rushing attack on Sunday HC Anthony Lynn may surprisingly choose to use what appears to be his offenses biggest weakness, as a strength.
EDGE: Wash
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Chargers’ Special Teams
Andre Roberts leads Pro Bowl voting for return specialists. Makes sense for a player that is 4th in both kick and punt Y/R and has consistently flipped the field for the Bills in 2020. Corey Bojorquez will continue with punting duties and is having a solid campaign even though he has had a handful of bad punts. Perfect example is the Cardinals game where Bojo had punts of 60, 61, and 53 but also had a 12 yarder which resulted in 3 points for the Cardinals. At kicker Tyler Bass is rounding into form as a professional punter and just drilled 54, 55, and 58-yard field goals against the Cardinals. Even future HOF Justin Tucker would struggle if called upon to do that, dare I say impressive?
For the Chargers, two players handle returns. Rookie Joe Reed handles KR where he is averaging 22.1 Y/R this season. Reed has good speed with a 4.47 40 which is even more impressive seeing as though he dials in at 224 lb. For punt returns rookie K.J. Hill is averaging 7.2 Y/R after taking over return roles from Desmond King in early 2020. Ty Long who kicked some and punted some for the Chargers in 2019 handles the punting duties in 2020 where he is having a solid campaign but has been blocked an astounding 3 times. Last is Michael Badgley who kicks for the Chargers where he has missed 5 FGs, 3 in the 40-49-yard range, and 2 XPs.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Bills are coming off a bye week which means they should have the advantage over the Chargers going into Sunday. But let’s assume that Bye week is akin to halftime and is it possible that the Bills could come out slow and sluggish like they have done for the most part in the 3rd quarter in 2020? The offense should have a good script for the first couple series but if they are even a tad rusty this underperforming defense does have the tools to force a turnover or two. Broken record I know, but turnovers prove to be the difference time and time again in Bills’ losses.
On the other side of the ball the Charger’s QB, Justin Herbert, is improving week by week. More complete as a prospect Herbert is currently playing somewhere between 2019 Josh and 2020 Josh making him one of the more dangerous QBs in the league. He has weapons across the field, but Keenan Allen is the one to watch, as is tradition, as he tends to bully DBs and then make plays on the ball with exceptional hands. The run game may be inconsequential Sunday but if the Chargers find any consistent success on the ground all that will result in is more open lanes for Herbert to shred the Bills’ secondary.
Why We Will Win
Sean McDermott does not lose coming out of the Bye. I think we all view McDermott as a good balance between the militaristic style coach and the players champion, but when push comes to shove, I expect him to drill into his team. I also think when McDermott has 2 weeks to do just that, he has an innate ability to correct deficiencies that have been plaguing his team all season. What does this mean on the defense? Expect the Bills to look different when it comes to fundamentals on Sunday. Better form tackles, tighter Palms defense, and better containment could all mean that the Bills average 2020 defense rounds into a good one.
If that happens, they will be paired with one of the best offenses in the NFL, that has been unable to run the ball. If McDermott and Co can fix the defense it would be a boon for the entire team, if they can fix the run offense the Bills quickly rise up the board of Super Bowl hopefuls. But this week, regardless of what happens to the run, the Bills passing attack should be able to carry the load. Consistent first downs all game should be found by the Bills abusing a weakened secondary with their stable of highly talented pass catchers. The Bills do this, they could run away with this one.
Prediction: Bills 28 – Chargers 24
The Chargers record is not demonstrative of their level of play. At 3-7 with losses of 3, 5, 7, 3, 1, 5, and 8 the Chargers have competed in every single game against some of the top teams in the NFL. They can beat the Bills on Sunday. But with 2 weeks to plan and a team that does have more talent, this is a game the Bills should win, and could win by double digits. Sill, I look for a close game here that is ultimately decided by one score meaning Bills Mafia may need to wear their heart monitors to make sure their gravy laden hearts don’t beat out of their chests.

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 10th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming game at the Cardinals. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Cardinals’ Passing Defense
Josh Allen is dominating this season. Through 9 games he has 2828 yards, 24 TDs, 68.9 Cmp %, and just 9 turnovers. And to be honest, he hasn’t broken math, he just simply has gotten better. Each game you see something else, one week its pocket presence, the next it’s vision, then it’s pre-snap adjustments, basically every week he adds a new wrinkle to a fold to the point where he is inarguably a top 5 QB in the NFL, at least in 2020. Bills fans have clamored for a franchise QB since Jim Kelly, and for the first time they can say “We got our guy”.
And this week “Our guy” goes up against a defense which ranks 10th in the NFL in Passer Rating against. For context, only the Dolphins rank higher (#8) making this one of the more difficult pass defenses Allen and the Bills have faced in 2020. The Cardinals have accomplished this mainly due to 2 studs in their secondary, Patrick Peterson (CB) and Budda Baker (S). Peterson is in the 10th season of a career where he has made the Pro Bowl 8 times and been named an All-Pro 3 times. A lockdown corner who has consistently shut down opposing #1s, Peterson will likely shade Diggs and should be an incredible matchup to watch Sunday. Then there is Budda Baker, who is a Darkhorse for DPOY. With a similar playstyle to Jordan Poyer, Baker is a safety that is everywhere and anywhere making plays on balls in the air or players in the backfield. As dominant a safety as you will see in the NFL in 2020 Baker is a more complete version of Jamal Adams capable of wreaking havoc at every level.
But I’m not too worried about the coverages that the Cardinals will throw at the Bills however, I am weary of their blitzing. The Cardinals blitz 40% (#5) of the time which is a bit misleading because they play a 3-4 but is still something to monitor. Haason Reddick is their primary blitzer blitzing 15% of his snaps, getting home 5 times for 5 sacks. The Bills will need to account for this unique blitz set and should get a boost there by the return of Mitch Morse (C). Assuming Morse comes back the Bills, for the first time, could have their #1 OL unit on the field. It’s going to be an offensive battle this week so anything will help but regardless of what is on the field, the Bills should take this matchup.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Cardinals’ Rushing Defense
The Bills HAD to rush against the Patriots and didn’t NEED to rush against the Seahawks. 38 rushes for 190 yards against the Patriots turned into 19 for 34 yards against the Seahawks. The stats were not pretty but perfectly encapsulate the Bills’ gameplan against the Seahawks, pass, then pass again, and pass some more. Still the most interesting thing to come from this game was the split between Singletary and Moss. Moss played 56% of the snaps, to Singletary’s 46%, and had 9 rushes to Singletary’s 2. I honestly don’t know what to make of this spread but still believe this will be a 50/50 share moving forward making it a clear Sigfried & Roy situation instead of a Penn & Teller.
But if the Bills WANT to run this week, they should find some lanes. The Cardinals currently rank 25th in Y/A at 4.6, exposed by how much they blitz. I’ve talked about this in past posts that blitzing is a live by and die by mentality. If the blitz hits home a team is golden but if it misses you leave open lanes with 2nd level OL able to break large chunks. The Seahawks game is a great example of this as they were able to put up 200 yards on the ground against this Cardinals’ defense, led by their QB, Russel Wilson, who had 84. Blitzing teams often struggle against mobile QBs because it exposes them to rollouts in the event the blitz misses and while Josh Allen has not run as much this year, we all know he is still one of the premier ground threats in the NFL.
But if Allen isn’t moving with his legs this week, more than last, the Bills will need something from their RBs. And these RBs will run into an old friend in Jordan Phillips who mans the interior of this DL. Phillips frankly is having a mediocre season with only 10 tackles, 2 sacks, and 1 TFL through 8 games but as all Bills’ fans know embraces the “revenge” game as a chance to make his presence known. Still the Bills will need to rely on the interior of their OL to push back Phillips and Corey Peters (DT) to give their RBs space to run. If the Bills can move the ball consistently on the ground, you will see them put up a big score again this week.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Cardinals’ Passing Offense
It is an odd thing to say that your pass defense played incredibly well when they gave up 362 yards through the air, but that’s what I am going to say. MVP front runner Russel Wilson has had a sub 100 passer rating just 2 times this season and the Bills are one of them holding him to a rating of 94.6. There were 3 major causes of this. 1 – Tre White balled out, often shadowing DK Metcalf, giving up a passer rating of just 36.9 while having an interception. 2 – Jordan Poyer continued his dominant season with an interception and 10 tackles, he is on All-Pro watch by the way. 3 – The pass rush was great and constantly pressured Wilson to throw early. While one player deserved shade for most of the season, he doesn’t this week. A.J. Klein was the Defensive Player of the Week regardless of what the NFL says and made a MASSIVE impact this game. Give that man kudos.
And now the Bills go from MVP frontrunner to MVP Darkhorse in matchup with Kyler Murray. Murray is having an exceptional second season already with 2600+ yards and 27 TDs, in just 8 games, the 5’10” Murray is proving why the Cardinals selected him #1 overall in 2019. It also does not hurt that Murray has a three-headed monster at WR that rivals even the Bills trio. Larry Fitzgerald is still hauling in passes at the end of his career continuing to prove why he will be considered a top 5 WR all time. Deep Threat, Christian Kirk, is coming on as of late with 75+ receiving yards in 3 out of his past 4 games. Last is the star of the group, DeAndre Hopkins who I could argue is the most complete WR I have ever seen play football. Combining a physique built to play WR, the instincts & vision of a tactician, and pure talent few possess Hopkins has the ability to turn bad QBs good and good QBs great.
And Hopkins will be ½ of the best matchup of this game, Hopkins vs. Tre White. In the past 2 games where these 2 have been on the field Hopkins has racked up 153 yards, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. In the 2019 Wildcard game Tre White held Hopkins to just 29 yards going into the 4th quarter and in their 2018 regular season matchup held him to just 39 yards in the first 3 quarters. This is an interesting trend which may continue Sunday where Tre gets the better of Hopkins through 3 and Hopkins breaks through in crunch time. A cause for concern, if Micah Hyde is unable to go the over the top coverage will be weakened forcing Tre to play tighter than normal on arguably the best WR in the game.
EDGE: Cardinals 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Cardinals’ Rushing Offense
Bills fans love to talk about comebacks so how about another one. I have been very critical of Tremaine Edmunds through the first half of the season, rightfully so, but his game against Seattle may be the start of something. While I’m not willing to call it a “comeback” just yet I am excited to see what he can do the remainder of the season. The 3rd year LB was all over the field racking up 11 tackles, 1 sack, and 2 TFLs. Edmunds seemed to be dissecting plays much faster and hitting the correct gap quickly allowing him to be a force over the middle. This week he will likely be in a similar role as last, spying Murray on pass plays, and moving forward on runs.
The Cardinals use a 2/3 split at RB with ex-Dolphin, Kenyan Drake, taking 66% of the carries and 3rd year RB Chase Edmunds taking the other 33%. Drake, a highly agile back can make multiple cuts and force defenders to miss. Often used in zone reads the threat Kyler Murray poses with his legs allows Drake to often get free and be 1 on 1 with opposing DBs. When this happens, Drake has consistently been able to gain big yardage. As for Chase Edmunds, while he is primarily a receiving back, he is a solid runner of the football. What stood out to me most watching Edmunds tape is just how good he is at breaking arm tackles. On nearly every play I watched when one defender got just an arm on Edmunds, he was either able to completely break it or fall forward for 3-4 more yards.
Still, as I alluded to, the key on the ground here is not the RBs but instead Kyler Murray. Behind an average at best OL, headlined by LT D.J. Humphries, Murray is often forced to scramble and when doing so has been deadly. Right now, Murray leads the NFL with 7.1 Y/A and is on pace to exceed 1000 yards on the ground. He has a unique ability to make defenders miss with top end speed to break away once getting to the open field. Edmunds will generally be tasked with the spy here but, as is tradition, Bills DEs must play contain. This is a game the Bills would love to have Matt Milano back for but since that can’t happen expect the Bills to almost exclusively play Big Nickel to ramp up the speed on the field in an effort to contain Murray.
EDGE: Cardinals 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Cardinals’ Special Teams
Andre Roberts’ started the Bills Seahawks game with a 60-yard return, oh so close to proving my prediction right and scoring a TD. Roberts is the best return man in the NFL in 2020 and while he hasn’t put a TD on the board his ability to flip the field has been a weapon for Buffalo all season. Another weapon for Buffalo has been their punter, Corey Bojorquez, who is averaging just 2.3 punts per game but is averaging nearly 50 yards per punt. Then there is Tyler Bass who kicked 9 times against the Seahawks and made 8 of them, his only miss? A 61-yard field goal attempt. Live or Die by the Bass I say, but he has been thumping as of late.
The Cardinals use different players a KR and PR. At KR is RB Chase Edmunds who is averaging just 23 Y/R with a long of 42 on the season while WR Christian Kirk is handling PR duties with a long of 10 and a Y/R of just 2.8. Make no mistake, regardless of these players recent struggles they both have top end speed and if the opportunity arises could do damage. Punting for the Cardinals is Andy Lee who is having an awful season with a Y/P of just 43.9, net Y/P of 39.6, and an I20 % of just 13.8 (Bojo’s is 42.9). Last at kicker is Zane Gonzalez, who is 11/15 for FGs and 27/28 for XPs. With more misses under 50 yards (#3) than over 50 yards (#2) Gonzalez has been a liability for the Cardinals thus far in 2020.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
I’d liken the challenge of stopping Murray in 2020 to the challenge of stopping Lamar Jackson in 2019, with one caveat, Murray is a better passer. While the Bills bailed out against the Ravens last year to stop the run, and for the most part held Lamar Jackson in check, they can’t do the same against the Cardinals. Yes, Murray will run the ball and likely pick up big yardage from time to time, but it is his passing ability that will set him apart and he should be able to slice up a secondary which has struggled through 2020. Hopkins will be the focus of the Bills but if they lose over the top protection Murray has shown an affinity to hit the deep ball to Christian Kirk. This could be a long day for Buffalo and a great day for Kyler.
On defense the Cardinals have ball hawks throughout their secondary and big hitters up front. As Bills’ fans saw against the Titans & Chiefs turnovers can be the deciding factor in games, and that could be just what happens here. Budda Baker and Patrick Peterson will both challenge WRs for the ball, but it is the pressure on Allen that has me worried. Reddick will come at Allen on a unique set of blitzes and if able to reach the Bills’ QB will be coached to rip the ball out. At the end of the day though it is the ex-Bill that has me most worried. Jordan Phillips has something to prove here, he wants to prove the Bills should have paid him, and the best way to do that is to wreck this game and push the Bills to 7-3.
Why We Will Win
At this point in the season the MVP order is likely 1 – Aaron Rodgers, 2 – Patrick Mahomes, 3A – Russel Wilson, 3B – Josh Allen. Allen has been the entire Bills’ offense and is finding ways to get everyone of his receivers the ball. Stefon Diggs will challenge an older Patrick Peterson in a fun matchup to watch, John Brown will force an Over Bracket Coverage and should find some success down field, and Cole Beasley will continue to do what he does best and be that pressure release valve for Josh Allen. Sure, the run game could get going but at the end of the day this is Josh Allen’s world and we are all just living in it.
On defense the Bills may finally be jelling as they held the Russel Wilson led Seahawks in check. Success in that game came from the Bills’ stars; Tre White, Jordan Poyer, & Tremaine Edmunds, and from their role players, like A.J. Klein. With this defense slowly rounding back into form they can be expected to get better and better every week. Bad news for the Cardinals because if this Bills’ defense can be 75% of what they were in 2019 the Cardinals may just be running into one of, if not the, most complete team in the entire NFL.
Prediction: Bills 34 – Cardinals 31
As I write this Vegas has the Cardinals at -2.5 which makes this a pick’em (Home field is basically an auto -3). I was wrong last week in picking the Bills to lose and the crow I had to eat was delicious, I won’t be wrong this week. The Bills’ offense is most dangerous when they are spread out into 4 WR threats where Josh Allen is one of the most imposing figures in the NFL. I expect him to have another big game in this shootout and then fully expect talking heads like Nick Wright to say something along the lines of “Well it was just the Cardinals, do it against a team like the Steelers.” The Bills leave the desert 8-2 and get some much deserved rest heading into their bye week.

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 8th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming home game against the Patriots. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Patriots’ Passing Defense
It isn’t hyperbole to say that Sunday’s game against the Patriots is the single most significant of Josh Allen’s career. Of course you could argue other games like the “Leap Heard Round the World”, or Turkey Day 2019, or the “Renegade” Game, or even the “Common Sense” Bowl were integral to the story of JA’s career but something just hits different about Sunday. Sunday presents an opportunity for Josh Allen that a Bills’ QB has not seen this millennium, an opportunity to bury the Patriots. Win this game and the excitement in Western New York may reach levels not seen since the early 90s. Lose this game and the resounding sentiment will be “Same Old Bills”. The fate of this team seemingly rests on a 24 year old QB’s shoulder, so to him, and the rest of the Bills’ roster, are you the “Same Old Bills”?
But passing the ball won’t be easy Sunday. The Patriots are just a year removed from being the #1 DVOA Pass Defense in the NFL and while they come into Sunday ranked 23rd the talent still exists. 2019 DPOY, Stephon Gilmore, headlines this unit and, assuming he plays, will likely be glued to Stefon Diggs for the entirety of Sunday. Outside of Gilmore the now 33 year-old McCourty twins will parole the secondary where they have built solid careers off of their coverage abilities combining for 46 interceptions, 193 passes defended, and even 5 touchdowns. The secondary is rounded out by Jonathan Jones and J.C. Jackson who since 2018 have a combined 312 targets against and are only giving up a 56.1 Cmp%. J.C. Jackson sneakily may be the best DB on the roster right now but regardless talent is strewn about this secondary.
And to counter that talent the Bills NEED John Brown. Since his injury the Bills have not been the same on offense, most notably their inability to hit the deep pass. Brown and Diggs feed off each other with each possessing the moniker of “Deep Threat”. This results in teams being forced to play 2-deep safeties instead of moving one forward and having the other shade to Diggs’ side. Forcing teams into these formations provides the Bills more cushion underneath and with the way that Cole Beasley is playing right now teams will have to pick their poison when it comes to stopping the Bills. If healthy the receiving corps feeds off of each other unlike any unit in the NFL, and if that is the case Sunday it could be a big game for this air attack.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Patriots’ Rushing Defense
This game will be won or lost in the trenches. For the Bills part they are getting a massive boost on Sunday with the return of Jon Feliciano who outside of Mitch Morse is arguably the most important player on the Bills’ OL. Feliciano seems to be the key to unlocking the Bills run game, which has struggled in 2020, as a player who excels in run blocking by mauling defenders in his gaps. If he is as advertised expect a heavy dose of runs to the A and B gap on the right side of the line with both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss getting carries this week. The Bills can seize an opportunity here against a Patriots team which currently ranks 27th in rushing yards against per game.
This Patriots front seven is not as talented as years past, but there are still some good players in this group. Starting LB Ja’Whaun Bentley is a career backup thrust into a starting role by star LB Dont’a Hightower opting out due to COVID. Bentley excels against the run, but struggles against the pass, as a wide bodied upfield LB. Outside of Bentley there is no other LBs of note so the focus shifts to the DL. Here the Patriots have journeymen defenders like DE John Simon and DT Lawrence Guy who have built careers as run first defenders capable of challenging RBs in the backfield. The only other player of note is Chase Winovich who hasn’t lived up to the hype that most Patriots fans’ placed on him after he was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft, but the Michigan standout (43 TFL in 41 Games) does possess all of the physical skills to put out a dominant performance.
The Bills have a chance to make some noise on the ground here especially if they are able to move the ball at all through the air. This game screams Zack Moss as a downhill runner seems more likely to do damage against a secondary which is often in nickel or dime formations. Look for the Bills to pull Mitch Morse often, to the right, in an attempt to get an RB to the edge with an OL in front. And while it isn’t technically a pass the Isaiah McKenzie push pass this week looks to be a massive weapon against an LB group that lacks speed and a defensive line which struggles setting the edge.
EDGE: Patriots 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Patriots’ Passing Offense
It is looking like the Bills could be without key players in the secondary with Levi Wallace (CB), Josh Norman (CB), and Micah Hyde (S) all nursing injuries. Missing all of these players are hits to a defense which has struggled through 2020 but the loss of Hyde could leave a massive void in the Bills secondary. Last week I broke down a play where the Bills’ Palms Zone scheme collapsed and the loss of Hyde makes this significantly more likely to happen on a consistent basis. Hyde is the figurative straw that stirs the drink and while his stats may seem bare this year he is one of the few players that consistently does his 1/11th. It will be interesting to see how the Bills play without their Center Fielder Sunday and is something Bills’ fans should be wary of if they see the Patriots attempt a deep pass.
But in all honesty who would the Patriots attempt said deep pass to? The Patriots top-2 receivers, Edelman and Harry, are unlikely to suit up Sunday meaning the Patriots are left with a top-3 (Based on targets) of Damiere Byrd (WR), Ryan Izzo (TE), and Jakobi Meyers (WR). Byrd has spent the majority of his career on practice Squads or the IR but could compete for fastest player in the NFL as he ran a 4.28, on grass, at his Pro Day in 2015. Ryan Izzo isn’t much more than a 6th lineman at this early stage in his career as he only has 21 targets for 13 catches in 12 games played up until now. And second year WR Jakobi Meyers flashed a bit in 2019 with 6 games of 35+ yards receiving, in a reserve role, but is more well known for breaking Torry Holt’s NC State single season reception record than anything he has done in the NFL. Fact: This is the worst group of receivers the Bills have faced in 2020.
If the Bills struggle to cover this group, even with the injuries their secondary is dealing with, then nothing can be assumed or expected of them moving forward. What Bills’ fans should expect is that the Bills defense leaves Sunday with more interception than they came in with, assuming the Patriots throw the ball once. So far the Patriots’ 3 QBs have combined for 11 Interceptions, better known as more interceptions than Josh Allen has in his last 21 games. Frankly, Newton looks completely lost throwing the ball. When his receivers are able to get separation, though rare, he is often completely missing in wildly different locations. His deep ball looks weak, his accuracy has been poor, his reads have been off, and he is turning the ball over at an alarming clip. The Bills have a massive advantage here and should be expected to dominate this matchup.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Patriots’ Rushing Offense
This is where the Bills win or lose this game. The defensive headlines against the Jets hyped up a team which gave up only 220 yards with 4 of those coming in the second half. Those are great statistics to get excited about but what stood out to me most is Frank Gore’s YPC of 5.5 with runs of; 8, 11, 7, 2, 7, 0, 2, 9, 13, -1, 2. A 37 year old Frank Gore rushing behind a weak OL was consistently producing chunk yardage against this Bills’ team. That’s not good. The problem still seems to be across the board with the DL often getting blown back and the LBs failing to come forward and make plays. But Bills’ fans rejoice, it is looking more and more likely Matt Milano should be full-tilt Sunday, which is a huge boost for this team.
Do any of these names scream STUD to you? Rex Burkhead, Damien Harris, J.J. Taylor, James White. The answer is no. But still, these RBs respectively are putting up Y/C of 3.9, 5.4, 4.4, 4.3, all of which are solid numbers that make up a rushing attack which is putting up 155.0 yards per game, ranked 4th in the NFL. Each of them is under 6’0” and under 220lbs but outside of Burkhead, who is built to run downhill, the other 3 have the ability to take one to the house with sub 4.62 speed. But the highlight of the rushing attack isn’t the RBs, it’s Cam Newton. On the ground Newton may not be his 2015 MVP-self but he is still a threat and used as one. Outside of last week’s game against SF he has 9+ carries in every game and to date has 244 rushing yards, 5 rushing TDs, and is averaging 4.9 Y/C. The Patriots like to get Newton to the edge and this week a heavy dose of that should be expected via Power-Read Options.
So this is it, can the Bills stop the run? I will intently be watching Ed Oliver this week who may still feel slighted by Cam Newton’s comments to him at training camp in 2019. Oliver needs to push the pocket this week and allow the LBs and DEs to focus contain. He will need to do this against solid 5th year starter David Andrews, who could be exposed this week with both flanking guards, Shaq Mason (RG) & Joe Thuney (LG), dealing with injuries. If neither of them, or only one of them play Ed Oliver has the ability to wreck this game. If both of them do play they produce one of the best interior OLs in the entire NFL, which would be bad news for a Bills’ team that has been continually gashed up the middle in 2020.
EDGE: Patriots 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Patriots’ Special Teams
Another game, another set of flashes by the Bills’ return man Andre Roberts. Against the Jets he averaged 40.0 Y/KR and 7.7 Y/PR. Roberts continues to be a game changing weapon that has the ability to flip the field, which will come in use Sunday. Bojo didn’t have a punt but at least this week did a much better job than Dan Marino of holding on kicks. Then there is Bass. Six FGs is an incredible game for a kicker but it’s the 45 and 37 yard miss that still have me concerned. As of now I need to cover my eyes every time he kicks, here is to hoping that changes. One unsung note about Bass, his kickoffs seems to be by design high arching kicks short of the endzone. This is a big reason why the Bills rank 11th in the league for opponents starting field position.
Gunner Olszewski is the main return man for the Patriots but has just 1 PR and 9 KRs on the season. In his two year career he is averaging a solid 9.1 Y/PR and 25.8 Y/KR. At Punter is Jake Bailey who is having a stellar season with in incredible -1.1 difference between Punt Avg. and Net Punt Avg. while dropping 11 of his 15 punts inside the 20 and 0 TBs. At kicker is Nick Folk who is 9 of 11 on FGs with misses from 45 and 51 as well as an XP miss.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Why We Will Lose
The weather report for Sunday plays right into the Patriots hand. Rain and winds of 25-50 MPH will make throwing the ball extremely difficult, which incredibly is the strength of the Bills and weakness of the Patriots. On offense this means that a Patriots’ team that is averaging 31 rushing attempts per game is likely to surpass their season high of 42 (Week 1) on Sunday. Historically the Patriots have beaten up the Bills via running back by committee and this week presents the same challenge. Add in a running QB and the Bills will have their hands full with one of the better rushing attacks they have played in years.
On defense the Patriots’ strength, their secondary, combats the Bills’ strength, their passing game. Of course this assumes the Bills are able to affectively throw the ball in the on-field weather conditions Sunday. If they can’t throw the ball the Bills will be forced to run it which has been a mixed bag for Buffalo this season. Make no mistake, Bill Belichick is well aware of Josh Allen’s fumble issues and has surely coached up his team to attack a wet ball all game in an effort to force multiple turnovers. If this happens, the Bills could fall behind early and struggle to find their way back into this game.
Why We Will Win
When is the last time the Bills clearly had more talent on their roster than the Patriots? Across the board the Bills seem to be better with their biggest advantage at QB. One of the main reasons Josh Allen was drafted was for games like this where his arm strength is able to combat the conditions unlike anyone else in the NFL. Even if he struggles through the air expect JA to use his legs more this week than he has the majority of the season as there should be a slew of running lanes available to him all game. JA, Singletary, and Moss should be able to pick up yards on the ground, and if they can the Bills offense should roll.
On defense the Bills must do the opposite of what they did against the Chiefs, bail out on the run by neglecting the pass. If the Bills can force Newton to beat them through the air this is a winnable game for Buffalo. This means the Bills are likely to be in their base defense with Edmunds, Milano, and Klein together on the field more often this week than at any point this season. You couple that with an injured interior OL and Buffalo has a chance to dominate the run and do something similar to what SF did to NE last week.
Prediction: Bills 21 – Patriots 17
I’ve never flip-flopped so much on a pick. Coming into writing this post I was 90% sure I would pick the Patriots to win this game. They matchup so well with Buffalo and have the innate ability to attack the Bills weaknesses while defending their strengths. Still, something feels different and I have an odd amount of confidence in Josh Allen this week. In games past against the Patriots he has been a wide eyed young QB trying to prove himself against his idol. This week I expect him to take what is given to him, playing a solid game, and lead the Bills to a massive victory against the Patriots. Folks, this isn’t your “Same Old Bills”.

Sure, the Giants had won three in a row, but who had they beaten? A three-point squeaker over Washington, a win over a reeling Eagles team and a two-point nail-biter against a dreadful Bengals team playing without Joe Burrow. That wasn’t the type of win streak that would cause anyone to take notice.
Surely, the Giants would travel to face the NFC West-leading Seahawks on Sunday and be reminded of their place below the top teams in the league, especially with starting quarterback Daniel Jones sidelined by a hamstring injury. Or not.
The Giants’ 17-12 win over Seattle with Colt McCoy at quarterback was the type of victory that is going to shift perspectives.
“As the season goes on, teams either descend or ascend and we wanted to make sure we were one of the those ascending teams who keep getting better week in and week out,” safety Jabrill Peppers said.
The Giants still are only 5-7, but their four-game winning streak not only turned around their season, it’s put them in control of their fate in the woebegone NFC East. The 4-7 Washington Football Team must beat the undefeated Steelers on Monday night to keep pace for first place in the division.
Regardless of Washington’s outcome in Pittsburgh, the Giants enter the final quarter of the season brimming with confidence after their defense completely flustered Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. Seattle entered Sunday averaging 31 points per game. No one could have predicted this outcome for the Giants, who were 10.5-point underdogs. Well, almost no one.
“We walked in here confident, I’m not going to lie,” Peppers said. “Team had a different swagger about them, team had a different juice about them today because we knew if we played our brand of football we knew we could shock a lot of people.”
Here are seven takeaways from the best Giants win in a long time:
1. Every Wednesday morning, players arrive at the Giants facility and receive the game plan for the upcoming opponent. That’s the same time every defensive player knows they’re going to be put in the best possible position to win that week’s game.
Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has done a masterful job all season. The Giants consistently take away what opposing offenses do best while masking their own weaknesses.
“We always joke around about how Pat is like a computer,” defensive lineman Leonard Williams said. “I swear he can remember a play from six years ago that he ran and know exactly where it was in that game. He’ll be like, ‘Play 56 in Year 7 against the Buccaneers.’ I’ll be like, ‘What? How does this guy remember that stuff?’ He’s just a genius to scheming guys and understanding who he has and who he has to go against. I think he just puts guys in great position to play their best and it shows.”
Graham’s genius was on full display Sunday. The Seahawks have an MVP candidate in Wilson and a deadly one-two punch at wide receiver with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Seattle has shredded teams with deep passes all season, which seemingly posed a problem for the Giants since Isaac Yiadom is a below-average No. 2 cornerback and slot corner Darnay Holmes has predictably had an up-and-down rookie season.
But, as always, Graham had a plan. Top cornerback James Bradberry mostly matched up with Metcalf, which was expected. But Graham mixed up his coverages. The Giants mostly played Cover-2 and Cover-3 to take away with the explosive pass plays downfield. They also mixed in Cover-2 man, which kept the outside corners tight on Seattle’s dangerous receivers while providing help over the top.
The result: Metcalf, who destroyed the Eagles for 177 yards on 10 catches last week, had five catches for a quiet 80 yards and Lockett added six catches for 63 yards. Wilson only completed one pass over 25 yards (a 28-yard touchdown to running back Chris Carson).
“You have to account and make sure they snap the ball again and again and not give up those big chunk plays they can make so often,” coach Joe Judge said. “You just have to make sure that they don’t walk by you, you have to stay on top in coverage. There’s different variations of coverage, different ways we can play it, but ultimately, it doesn’t matter what you call, you just can’t let these guys run behind you because that quarterback Russell is really, really good at throwing deep balls.”
The Giants didn’t just sit back in soft zones, however. Though there were snaps when Wilson had all day to throw, the Giants generated plenty of pressure. They often had a spy assigned to Wilson and Williams got one of his 2.5 sacks when rookie inside linebacker Tae Crowder came on a delayed blitz after spying the quarterback.
The Giants sacked Wilson five times, which is particularly impressive considering their edge rusher rotation consisted of journeyman Jabaal Sheard, sixth-round rookie Cam Brown, seventh-round rookie Carter Coughlin and undrafted rookie Niko Lalos. Sheard split a sack with Williams, while Crowder and Peppers each had a sack.
Wilson, who is one of the most cerebral quarterbacks in the game, often held the ball for an eternity and still couldn’t find an open receiver.
“I think schematically, we did a good job making him feel pressure and making him uncomfortable,” Williams said. “He felt like he had a guy on his side and had to hold the ball. I felt like we were coming at him from a lot of angles and it made him a little bit confused sometimes. Overall, he’s the head of the offense being the quarterback and making him uncomfortable is what we needed to do.”
The defense had almost no margin for error considering how limited the offense was without Jones. The defense didn’t blink. After allowing a field goal on Seattle’s opening drive, the Giants forced five punts, a turnover on downs, an interception and a fumble on the next eight possessions (not including an aborted drive at the end of the first half).
The Giants did surrender an 82-yard touchdown midway through the fourth quarter, but they slammed the door after the Seahawks got the ball at their own 20-yard line with 1:48 remaining. Seattle advanced to the Giants’ 46-yard line before a pair of incompletions and huge sack by Williams. Wilson’s desperation heave on fourth-and-18 to Metcalf was batted down by Bradberry to seal the win.
The only bad news for the defense was that linebacker Blake Martinez left in the fourth quarter with a lower back injury. Judge didn’t have an update after the game on the status of the team’s leading tackler.
2. “That dude is a man,” Judge said about Williams.
For so long, the talk about Williams revolved around what he couldn’t do. Williams was mostly a disappointment in the five seasons after getting picked sixth by the Jets in the 2015 draft. But he’s flipped that narrative with a breakout sixth season. He already has a career-high 8.5 sacks this season with four games to play.
“The scheme has been fun,” Williams said. “Guys around me have been helping me play great, the system has been helping me play great, the energy on the team is helping me play great. A lot of stuff comes together that helps players reach their potential. I think it’s just all coming together.”
Trading third- and fifth-round picks to the Jets for Williams at last year’s trade deadline was still a puzzling decision, especially with the sides unable to reach a long-term agreement and Williams boosting his price tag while playing this season on the franchise tag. However, after all of the criticism Dave Gettleman got for the trade, he deserves credit for recognizing Williams’ potential.
Williams’ last sack of Wilson came off after defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson cleared a path to the quarterback with a stunt. Williams dropped Wilson for an 8-yard loss to effectively seal the win.
3. Beyond Graham’s game-plan expertise, the other clear sign of excellent coaching is how veterans like Williams and Peppers are having the best seasons of their careers and every young player is developing.
Lalos had a fumble recovery after a botched snap on third-and-1 in the second quarter. Wilson tried to scoop the ball and lunge forward for the first down, but Peppers prevented the recovery. Lalos dove on the loose ball for his second takeaway in as many games. Lalos, who was elevated from the practice squad for the second consecutive week, has earned a permanent spot on the active roster.
Holmes’ improved play continued with an interception off a pass that went through Carson’s hands and was deflected into the air by Crowder.
Brown had a tackle on a third-and-2 in the third quarter to force a punt after setting the edge firmly on a Carson run. That showed impressive strength from the 233-pounder. Coughlin was active, forcing an incompletion on a Wilson rollout on fourth-and-1 midway through the third quarter.
“Coaches expect big things from us and we as players have a standard that we expect people to play by,” Peppers said. “We don’t care who is out there, that’s the standard and if you’re not going to play up to the standard then guys aren’t going to be out there.”
4. Any illusions that McCoy was going to light up Seattle’s shaky pass defense were dashed early. His first pass was low and behind tight end Evan Engram, and nearly got intercepted. That was an ominous start and things got worse on the Giants’ second possession when a promising drive ended in the red zone on an interception that went through Engram’s hands.
It was clear that the Giants’ plan was just for McCoy not to lose the game. If he could limit mistakes, then the defense would give them a shot. The 11th-year veteran held up his end, completing 13 of 22 passes for 105 yards, one touchdown and the one early interception.
McCoy was blunt about his performance, noting he “played so far from perfect.” But he was also appreciative of the opportunity to get his first win as a starter since 2014.
The Giants understood McCoy’s limitations but also respected how he’s handled his backup role. Judge had McCoy break down the postgame huddle in the locker room.
“I just told them how proud I was to be a part of this, to be with this group of guys, and that’s special to me,” McCoy said.
Jones is expected to return to the lineup next week against Arizona after making far more progress than expected leading into Sunday. Judge said he had to protect Jones from himself by holding the quarterback out of the game. Meanwhile, McCoy gave a sincere endorsement of the Giants young quarterback.
“Daniel Jones is a phenomenal guy,” McCoy said. “He is a great quarterback. He’s the leader of this football team. He knew he wasn’t going to play and from the things he helped me with on the sidelines to during the week, we have a great relationship. The Giants are lucky to have him, 100 percent.”
5. The Giants varied their personnel groupings in the first half and struggled to find a rhythm. They managed just 96 yards of offense in the first 30 minutes and went into halftime trailing 5-0 after having a blocked punt go out of the end zone for a safety late in the second quarter.
The Giants leaned on heavier personnel groupings in the second half, with three tight ends and fullbacks a bigger part of the offense. That change was made in part to account for safety Jamal Adams, who steamrolled running back Dion Lewis on a second-quarter sack.
“I think the O-line felt like they could get some removal in these big personnel packages,” McCoy said. “It also helped us block (Adams). Jamal Adams can ruin a game. Knowing where he was and getting a hat on him really helped our run game and we ended up finding some things there in the bigger (packages).”
The change paid dividends in the third quarter when Gallman ran behind left tackle Andrew Thomas, left guard Shane Lemieux, tight end Kaden Smith, tight end Levine Toilolo and wide receiver Austin Mack for a 60-yard gain. Alfred Morris followed with a 13-yard run and then finished the drive with a 4-yard touchdown plunge to give the Giants an 8-5 lead after a two-point conversion pass to Sterling Shepard.
The Giants stuck with that approach on their next drive after a turnover on downs gave them the ball at Seattle’s 48-yard line. Three Gallman runs picked up 39 yards and then Morris advanced to the 6-yard line. A well-time play-action resulted in an easy 6-yard touchdown catch for Morris in the right flat.
It was the first touchdown reception of Morris’ nine-year NFL career and the first two-touchdown game since 2014 for the two-time Pro Bowler. Meanwhile, Gallman continued to make the most of his opportunity to be the feature back with 16 carries for 135 yards.
The Giants enjoyed the ground success while continuing to rotate the offensive line. Thomas, center Nick Gates and right guard Kevin Zeitler played every snap. Lemieux started at left guard and Cameron Fleming started at right tackle. They played eight of the Giants’ 11 possessions. Will Hernandez and Matt Peart played the other three series at left guard and right tackle, respectively.
The Giants allowed only two sacks, while Thomas continued his improved play. The much-dissected change from Marc Colombo to Dave DeGuglielmo at offensive line coach during the bye week clearly hasn’t slowed the Giants, who had 190 yards on 31 carries against Seattle.
6. If there’s one detractor from the Giants’ good vibes, it’s the special teams play recently. Special teams coordinator Thomas McGaughey called the group’s coverage efforts last week the worst of his lengthy career. Sunday’s performance wasn’t much better.
The Giants surrendered a blocked punt late in the second quarter when Ryan Neal broke through the middle of the line untouched and smothered the ball off of Riley Dixon’s foot. The Seahawks failed to recover the loose ball, however, so they only got a safety when it squirted out of the back of the end zone.
Dixon failed to pin the Seahawks deep when punting from their 42-yard line with just under two minutes remaining. The touchback gave Wilson a better shot at a game-winning drive, but the defense came through.
Kicker Graham Gano made his lone field goal attempt, a 48-yarder to give the Giants a 17-5 lead midway through the fourth quarter, to extend his streak of consecutive makes to 25. But he missed his first extra point of the season after Morris’ second touchdown.
Toilolo and Brandon Williams were each flagged for false start penalties on punts to add to the ugly day in the kicking game.
7. The Eagles lost to the Packers on Sunday to drop to 3-8-1 and further out of the NFC East race. If Washington loses to the Steelers on Monday, the Giants will have a one-game lead in the division while holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over WFT. The 3-8 Cowboys play at Baltimore on Tuesday night.
If the season ended today, the Giants would host the top wild card team in the first round of the playoffs. Right now, that team would be Seattle. Odds are that the top wild card team will be whoever finishes second in the NFC West. The Seahawks and Rams, who beat the Giants 17-9 in Week 4, are tied for the division lead with 8-4 records. The 7-5 Buccaneers, who beat the Giants 25-23 in Week 8, are the other team in contention for the top wild card spot.

Before every Bills’ game I spend some time, probably too much time, digging into how the Bills roster stacks up against their opponent’s. While doing this I specifically look at 5 matchups; Bills’ Pass Offense vs. Opponent’s Pass Defense, Bills’ Rush Offense vs. Opponent’s Rush Defense, Bills’ Pass Defense vs. Opponent’s Pass Offense, Bills’ Rush Defense vs. Opponent’s Rush Offense, Bills’ Special Teams vs. Opponent’s Special Teams. After doing all of this I try to come up with reasons “Why We Will Lose” and “Why We Will Win” ultimately leading to a prediction. Below I present 2020’s 4th iteration of this analysis for the Bills upcoming game at the Raiders. Included is a scale to rank the advantage in each matchup from 👏👏👏👏👏 (Massive Advantage) to 👏 (Minimal Advantage).
Bills’ Passing Offense vs. Raiders’ Passing Defense
In just 3 short weeks Josh Allen has gone from one of NFL Media’s favorite punching bags to an MVP favorite that is consistently lighting up opposing teams. At his current pace he would end the season with 64 Total TDs, 5984 Total Yards, and 4 AFC Offensive Player of the Months. Let’s be realistic here, that’s probably not happening, but with the way JA and this offense is playing nothing should surprise us moving forward. More importantly, his play is directly resulting in wins for the 3-0 Bills. Allen currently accounts for 100% of the Bills touchdowns and has led two 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives. The offense is the reason the Bills are winning and they are bailing out their defense, when’s the last time Bills Mafia could say that?
Now the JA led passing attack takes on an injury riddled Raiders secondary which has been surprisingly proficient in 2020. Thus far they have held Teddy Bridgewater, Drew Brees (Without Michael Thomas), and Cam Newton to a combined passer rating of 88.9 which is comparable to Joe Burrow who ranks 25th in the NFL. They are doing this with a unit that is greater than the sum of its parts including freakishly talented, but oft-injured, Jonathan Abram. The 2nd year safety, whose playstyle is similar to Jamal Adams, has only appeared in 4 games but has racked up 25 tackles, 3 PD, and 1 INT. Outside of Abram there is no spectacular talent in the secondary with Erik Harris at the other safety position and Trayvon Mullen & ex-safety Lamarcus Joyner at CB. This secondary may have handled the previous 3 QBs it faced but couple the fact that this unit is lacking in talent with the fact that 19th overall pick Damon Arnette (CB) will miss Sunday’s game and the Bills may have a huge advantage here.
And if the secondary is lacking in talent I am not sure what adjective to use for the Raiders pass rush. It is headlined by its outside rushers in underwhelming 2019 4th overall pick Clelin Ferrell and surprising 2019 106th overall pick Maxx Crosby. Ferrell, who is oddly similar to Shaq Lawson, has not exactly impressed through his first 18 games while Crosby shocked the entire NFL in posting a double digit sack season his rookie year which included a 4.0 sack performance against the Bengals. Dawkins, assuming he plays, and Williams should be able to maintain the edge against these DBs for the majority of the game but where the Bills should be, and seem to be, worried is at RG where Brian Winters struggled last week. Expect Jonathan Hankins to shade that gap with consistent blitzes coming from weakside linebacker Corey Littleton. (For the future the Bills need Jon Feliciano back bad).
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Rushing Offense vs. Raiders’ Rushing Defense
I think at this point it is safe to say that Devin Singletary should be the bell cow RB for the Buffalo Bills. In Zack Moss’ absence Singletary played 89% of the offensive snaps and racked up 126 yards on 17 touches. Yes the dream of a backfield resembling The Thing and The Human Torch was nice but, while still a possibility, our version of The Thing needs more time to grow into his skin. Singletary showed multiple times Sunday why some people (maybe just me?) compare him to a young Shady McCoy by making multiple defenders look foolish. On his 3rd touch of the game he completely broke CB Tory Hill’s ankles turning what would have been a 4 yard loss into a 4 yard gain and then in the early 3rd quarter he did the same to Samson Ebukam turning what should have been a 2 yard loss on a screen pass into a 34 yard gain. Both of these plays showed why Singletary is so dangerous but it was his 4th touch of the game where he broke a 16 yard run and then wrapped the ball up at the end that has me excited. If there was a fumble issue the young RB is cognizant of it and is actively doing things to remedy it.
So this week Singletary and all other runners, including Josh Allen, should be able to pad their stats against a weak Raiders run defense. In each game this season they have given up over 100 yards and are coming off a loss to the Patriots where they were gashed for 250 yards on 38 carries (6.6 Y/A). The majority of problems for the Raiders came from outside runs where the Patriots rushed outside the Left Tackle 9 times for 105 yards (11.6 Y/C) and outside the Right Tackles 5 times for 54 yards (10.8 Y/C). On the majority of these runs the Raiders DEs would get sealed off and the LBs would over commit providing opportunity for quick backs (Hey we have one of them) to break through the second level for large gains. If Gruden has not corrected this going into week 4 the Raiders could be in big trouble against this Bills team.
But will part of that trouble be caused by Josh Allen? I’ve noticed an interesting trend on twitter in the past few weeks where noted JA haters have admitted they were wrong but then justify it by saying “I always knew he would be a good runner but never thought he would be a good passer”. Oh really? You always “knew” he would be a good runner? In college JA averaged about the same number of carries per game as Baker Mayfield and in his final season had about the same Y/C as Gardner Minshew did (2.2 vs. 2.1). In fact, Allen is even quoted as saying “I didn’t really run a whole lot (at Wyoming). I ran when we had to, third and short and things like that, but never had ‘breakaway’ speed…I still don’t think I’m fast”. His running ability surprised a lot of people and is now paired with proficiency through the air resulting in one of the most dynamic playstyles in the NFL, from someone few people expected it from.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Passing Defense vs. Raiders’ Passing Offense
It might not be time to panic but it is definitely time to worry. The Bills’ pass defense has now given up back to back 300 yard passing games for the first time since October 2017. The most worrisome part about this is that the Rams game exposed everyone in the secondary as opposed to just one or two players. Taron Johnson was targeted 7 times for 7 catches, Edmunds 7 times for 5 catches, Levi Wallace 3 times for 2 catches (and an INT), and Tre White 2 times for 2 catches and another TD. This means that thus far in 2020 Tre White has given up 2 TDs which is stunning considering he only allowed 2 in the entirety of 2018 and 0 in 2019. Something needs to change in the secondary and whether it be scheme or personnel (Josh Norman?) it’s something that the defense will need to fix quickly if the Bills intend to compete with the top teams in the NFL.
This week the Bills won’t have a cakewalk in their attempt to fix this as often underrated Derek Carr will be on the other side of the ball. This is the same Carr who, outside of his rookie season, has not had a passer rating below 86. He finished last season with a passer rating of 100.8, good for 9th in the NFL, and in 2020 has a passer rating of 116.4, good for 5th. The most impressive part about this is that he is doing it with little to no weapons in the pass game outside of standout TE Darren Waller, who will be a problem Sunday. His most targeted receiver over the past 2 years has been Hunter Renfrow, who isn’t exactly Calvin Johnson, and Sunday will likely be without his next 2 receivers, rookies Bryan Edwards (3rd Round Pick) and Henry Ruggs (1st round pick). This leaves Carr with Nelson Agholor, who couldn’t catch a baby if he had to, and Josh Allen’s top receiver from his rookie season, Zay Jones.
So we know the Raiders will be very weak at the receiver position but how about when it comes to protecting Carr? From left to right. 3rd year starter Kolton Miller will man Carr’s blindside and is a middle tier LT. Starting LG Richie Incognito is now on IR and in his place is 2020 4th round pick John Simpson. At Center is 10th year veteran and 3 time pro-bowler Rodney Hudson. Right Guard is set by 7th year Raider starter Gabe Jackson. And at RT the Raiders may be without starter Trent Brown and backup Sam Young leaving the only healthy Tackle remaining on the depth chart in 3rd year swing tackle Brandon Parker. All in all it’s a solid OL when healthy and a below average unit when injured.
EDGE: Bills 👏
Bills’ Rushing Defense vs. Raiders’ Rushing Offense
Against the Jets the Bills’ run defense was very good. Against the Dolphins the Bills’ run defense was ok. Against the Rams the Bills’ run defense was horrendous. In these games the top RBs were Frank Gore (Jets), Myles Gaskin (Dolphins), and Darrell Henderson (Rams). The Bills’ run defense is trending the wrong way and continues to be the Achilles heel of a traditionally dominant defense. Is the Bills DL not winning the battle in the trenches? Are the LBs not breaking down and making the tackles they need to? Or are the schemes designed with more focus on the pass than the run? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s all three.
We know there is a problem on the Bills side but they are about to have a bigger problem to deal with and he goes by the name Josh Jacobs. Jacobs just finished his 16th game meaning in a single seasons worth of games he has rushed for 1402 yards, 4.5 Y/A, 10 TD, 40 catches, and 241 yards. Jacobs is far and above the best RB the Bills have played in 2020 combining a thick frame, 4.60 speed, and incredible instincts to punish defenders. The majority of Jacobs big runs come outside the tackles where he breaks one tackle and is off to the races but he also can consistently pound the ball up the middle. This is where the Bills tend to be most vulnerable as demonstrated by the way Henderson continuously gained chunked yards play after play.
The person the Bills need to step up this week is 22 year old Tremaine Edmunds. Edmunds age is astounding for a guy playing at his level but he is struggling mightily in 2020. Through 2 games he only has 8 tackles and is directly responsible for 2 big touchdowns. The first was a well-documented missed tackle against Jamison Crowder that resulted in a 69 yard TD. The second one happened against the Rams on a bubble screen to Robert Woods where Edmunds sniffed out the play but ran to far up field allowing Woods to break to the endzone. Yes, both of these were on passes but these demonstrate the main criticism I have for Edmunds. He often does not set his feet and when that happens, regardless of pass or run, bad things happen to the Bills.
EDGE: Raiders 👏 👏 👏 👏
Bills’ Special Teams vs. Raiders’ Special Teams
All of the Andre Roberts haters seem to be very very quiet lately. Roberts is currently 4th in Punt Return Y/R and 2nd in Kick Return Y/R. I’ll admit I still hold my breath when he takes a kick return out of the endzone but we all need to come to the realization that when he does it our field position almost always ends up past the 25 yard line. At kicker Tyler Bass has made his last 12 kicks and is looking more and more like a well-rounded veteran. And then there is Bojo. I fully understand that he only has 7 punts on the season but 4 of them have been downed inside the 20 and his Net Punt Avg of 46.0 is 3rd in the NFL. Also, that 72 yard punt against the Rams was a thing of beauty, shades of Brian Moorman.
For the Raiders RB Jalen Richard is on kick return duty with 3 returns, averaging 26 Y/R, and a long of 30. At punt return is WR Hunter Renfrow who is averaging 14.0 Y/R on 3 returns but currently has the league high return at 27 yards. At kicker is veteran Daniel Carlson who struggled last year with an FG % of 73.1% and 2 missed XPs. Last is punter AJ Cole who is off to a rough start in 2020 with only 1 of his 8 punts inside the 20 and a Net Punt Avg of 37.6 which ranks 28th in the NFL.
EDGE: Bills 👏 👏
Why We Will Lose
The Bills defense, as whole, looks bad and while the current version of the Raiders are no Kansas City Chiefs they have weapons which will give the Bills problems. Josh Jacobs is going to be an issue and if he can have similar success to what Darrel Henderson had against the Bills then the Raiders could literally run away with this game. Then in the receiving game Darren Waller looms large as an All-Pro caliber Tight End. In 2019 he was the 3rd most targeted TE but reeled in the 2nd most catches for the 2nd most yards. Throwing to him is Derek Carr who a lot of people like to hate on but is not that far removed from legitimately being in the MVP conversation. Don’t underestimate the Raiders’ offense and don’t overestimate the Bills’ defense.
On defense the Raiders are bare of talent but have a few playmakers who could change games. Maxx Crosby is a wrecking ball who can light up an offense and with Dion Dawkins questionable for Sunday may be able to eat up Nsheke. In the secondary Johnathan Abram runs around like a maniac and can consistently deliver hits that jar the ball loose. Dark horse, Lamarcus Joyner, who is not as good as he was on the Rams but still has the ability to make a play here and there. As always turnovers are what hurt the Bills and the Raiders have multiple players capable of forcing a few.
Why We Will Win
This is the 4th week in a row where the Bills are just more talented than their opposition. The Bills secondary has been struggling, yes, but they are also playing a set of receivers this week that is far and away the weakest they have seen in 2020. This should allow the Bills to stack the box and focus specifically on the run with Tre White and the safeties responsible for closing any passing lanes Carr may have. If this happens the Raiders could be forced to punt over and over which against this Bills’ offense is not a winning strategy.
And that offense just has too much skill to be contained in Las Vegas. Stefon Diggs is going to be covered by Trayvon Mullen? Diggs just managed 4 catches for 49 yards and a TD as the primary focus of one of the best corners in the NFL. Even if by some miracle Diggs is shutdown Brown, Beasley, and Gabe Davis are all weapons that the Raiders cannot consistently cover. All of this ignores the weak spot in the Raiders’ offense which is their run defense. If they need to the Bills should be able to run all over this team which could possibly mean Allen does not hit 300 yards (Blasphemy), mainly because he won’t need to.
Prediction: Bills 31 – Raiders 21
The Raiders barely beat the Panthers, handled a bad and injury riddled Saints team, and got stomped by the Patriots. The Bills are better than all 3 of those teams and have an offense that will be the biggest challenge the Raiders have faced to date. If the Bills can jump out to an early lead it will force the ball out of Jacobs’ (RB) hands and into a passing attack devoid of weapons. I’m concerned about the Bills’ defense as a whole but still think they can be one of the better units in the NFL. Assuming this game goes the way it should Buffalo will leave Vegas 4-0 and get ready for a trip to Nashville.

1. Introduction

This franchise has been struggling quite a bit since 2008, except for the 2017 season where they rode a stout defense all the way to the AFC Championship Game. During this 12-year time span, the Jaguars have compiled a 63-129 record, which equates to a mediocre 32.8% winning percentage.
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What puzzling is the team does not seem to have a sound plan in place. From looking at their roster, there does not seem to be much hope for short-term, nor long-term success.
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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The million-dollar question is whether Gardner Minshew is a starting NFL-caliber quarterback or not.
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Minshew clearly exceeded expectations that you would normally have for a rookie sixth-round pick. He threw 21 TD passes versus just six interceptions, while racking up 3,271 passing yards and 344 more yards on the ground. His 60.6% completion rate wasn’t great, though.
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All in all, he showed nice flashes, but was inconsistent at times. He did develop a nice rapport with second-year receiver D.J. Chark.
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You can tell that the organization is not 100% sold on him. There were strong rumors that the franchise had a lot of interest in Andy Dalton when the Bengals released him. However, he signed with the Cowboys.
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The backup QB role will be settled through a battle in training camp between Joshua Dobbs and Jake Luton.
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Dobbs was acquired via a trade with the Steelers after Nick Foles went down to an injury in the season opener. He was drafted in the 4th round of the 2017 draft out of Tennessee. He has attempted 12 passes in three years.
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As for Luton, the Jags took him in the sixth round in this year’s draft. He played his college ball at Oregon State, where he mostly played the role of a game manager. He repeatedly completed short passes and he completed a very low percentage of his throws under pressure.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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Leonard Fournette was on the trading block, but the Jags weren’t able to find any suitors. His career got off to a fast start with 1,040 rushing yards, 302 receiving yards and 10 total TDs as a rookie in 2017.
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However, things didn’t go too well for him as a sophomore. His 2018 season was shortened due to an injury and he averaged a dreadful 3.3 yards per rush.
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Last year, he had season-highs in rushing yards (1,152), yards-per-rush average (4.3) and receptions (76). The only problem was that he reached the end zone on only three occasions. For the first time of his career, he stayed relatively healthy by playing 15 games.
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Fournette does not seem like a good three-down back. He is probably best suited as a power back in a committee-approach in the backfield.
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The number two runner last year was Ryquell Armstead. He was a rookie fifth-rounder who had received just 34 touches prior to the season finale. He filled in as the starting RB in Week #17, a game in which he rushed 10 times for 33 yards, while catching 5 passes for 52 yards. He finished the season with a mediocre 3.1 yards per carry average.
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I really like how the team addressed the lack of depth at the position by signing free agent Chris Thompson, who played the first seven years of his pro career with the Reskins. I really liked him early in his career, as he showed great flashes and big-play ability both as a runner and as a receiver. He was a great change-of-pace back.
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However, his production on the ground has dipped many years in a row. Take a look at his yards per carry average since 2015: 6.2, 5.2, 4.6, 4.1 and 3.7. At least his pass catching output has remained consistent, hauling in between 35 and 49 passes in each of those seasons.
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In my own humble opinion, he’s an underrated player who has a chance to revive his career. He’s 29 years old, but he has plenty of gas left in the tank considering the relatively small number of career touches. He has a good burst and nice playing experience. He will be reuniting with OC Jay Gruden who was his head coach in Washington.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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D.J. Chark was the go-to guy in the passing game last year. He really blossomed in his second year after catching just 14 passes as a rookie. In 2019, he posted a nice 73-1008-8 receiving line. He is pretty fast for a 6’4’’ guy. He stumbled a little bit down the stretch, but he was slowed by an ankle injury.
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Starting opposite Chark was Chris Conley. It’s unclear yet whether he can be a good No. 2 WR, but he had a good first season in Jacksonville after spending four years with the Chiefs. He set career marks in receptions (47), receiving yards (775) and 5 TD catches. His 16.5 yards per catch average was very solid.
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Conley is likely to fight with rookie Laviska Shenault for some playing time. Shenault was used in a variety of fashions with the Buffalos. Head coach Doug Marrone said he might also use him in the backfield or as the F tight end. Shenault has been plagued with injuries, so we’ll see how the team uses him if he can stay on the field.
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The starting slot receiver, Dede Westbrook, underwhelmed a little bit last year. His receiving yards and TDs regressed. His 10.0 yards per catch average was fairly disappointing as well. He is still a decent weapon, though.
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Keelan Cole’s time in the NFL could very well be running out. He burst onto the scene as a rookie undrafted free agent in 2017 with 42 catches for 748 yards and 3 TDs. Things have gone in a downward spiral since then. He reeled in just 24 grabs last year and finds himself on the outside looking in, especially after the team drafted Shenault.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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James O’Shaughnessy led all Jags tight ends with 14 receptions, despite playing just five games. It seems fair to affirm the position underperformed in 2019.
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If you project O’Shaughnessy’s numbers into a full 16-game season, you would obtain a 45-490-6.4 receiving line, which isn’t bad. He was on pace for his best season before tearing his ACL. Can he really become a starting TE in this league, considering he has never caught more than 24 passes in any of his first five years?
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The most likely starter is Tyler Eifert, who signed a two-year contract with Jacksonville after a seven-year career that has been marred with injuries in Cincinnati. He showed great flashes, especially in 2015 where he scored 13 TDs on 52 grabs. In the following three years, he has played 14 games and he has missed 34 of them. Unreal!
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For the very first time of his career, he played all 16 bouts last year. His workload was reduced, though. He is a big question mark that could either be a boom or a bust in 2020.
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Seth DeValve and Nick O’Leary both left via free agency, but they didn’t play a big role last year anyway.
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How does second-year man Josh Olivier fit in? He was taken early in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft out of San Jose State. He only caught three passes in four games and struggled to make his mark in limited time.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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Brandon Linder is a much underrated center in this league. He does not get much publicity playing in a small market like Jacksonville, but he has done a phenomenal job at the pivot for six consecutive years for the Jags. Last year’s 75.3 PFF grade was his worst of the past four seasons, and yet he graded as the fifth-best center in the league!
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Minshew’s blindside protector is Cam Robinson. That’s not necessarily good news for the signal caller. Robinson has been among the most terrible tackles in the NFL since he was drafted in the second round of the 2017 draft.
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At the other end of the offensive line, at right tackle, the starter is Jawaan Taylor. He enjoyed a respectable rookie season by finishing 50th out of 81 tackles last year. He slid out of the first round and was a good value pick for the Jaguars during the 2019 draft.
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Left guard Andrew Norwell came out of nowhere and played great in four seasons with the Panthers as an undrafted free agent out of Ohio State. Indeed, his PFF marks during this time frame lied between 73.6 and 81.1, which is well above average. He then signed a hefty contract with the Jags, and his PFF grades dropped to 69.3 in 2018 and 65.5 last year. His pass blocking is very efficient, but he has more trouble opening holes for the running game.
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Right guard A.J. Cann is another guy whose career is going south. He showed promise in his first two seasons as a pro, but has regressed big time in the last three years. Last year, he graded out as the number 60 guard out of 81 qualifiers.
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Will Richardson is ready to step in if an offensive lineman gets hurt. He missed his entire rookie season with a knee injury and was horrendous in spot duties last year.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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The Jags scored the 26th most points in the league last year. Can we expect an improvement in the upcoming season?
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The starters remain the same, except at tight end where the team upgraded with the acquisition of Tyler Eifert. Can the often-injured big fellow stay healthy for the second year in a row?
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The team added depth with running back Chris Thompson and rookie WR Laviska Shenault. Both could provide a boost to a suspect offense. The whole receiving corps is pretty young and likely to improve.
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The entire OL is back, which is good for continuity reasons. Some studies have shown that continuity is a key factor to an offensive line’s success. LT Cam Robinson and RG A.J. Cann are a source of concern, though.
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An offense often goes as far as his quarterback takes them. In Jacksonville, that’s a big question mark.
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Will Gardner Minshew grow in his second year? As a former sixth-round pick, that’s not a gimme. The depth at the position is worrisome as well after Nick Foles left for Chicago, leaving Joshua Dobbs and Jake Luton as the lone alternatives (unless GM Dave Caldwell signs a veteran before the season kicks off).
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On paper, I would normally tag this group as a small upgrade over 2019. However, I find it difficult to project them to finish much higher than last year’s 26th rank. If Minshew goes down, things will get even uglier (again, unless the Jags add another QB).
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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Abry Jones played the most snaps on the interior of the line last year, and he wasn’t great. He graded out as the 82nd DL out of 114 qualifiers based on PFF rankings. He had a subpar season, receiving a 60.1 mark after getting over 70 in each of his previous three seasons. The undrafted alumni from the Georgia Bulldogs has spent his entire seven-year career with the Jags.
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Taven Bryan was pretty solid against the run last year. The 2018 first-rounder has only picked up three sacks in his two years as a pro, but he’s an efficient run-plugger.
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Marcell Dareus played just six games last year; he underwent core muscle surgery during the offseason. He has yet to sign with any team; Jacksonville GM Dave Caldwell is open to bringing him back if they can agree on a deal. Dareus posted 28.5 sacks in his first four seasons in the NFL compared to just nine over the last five years! He has always been a very good run-stopping force, but even this aspect of the game dipped last year. He would be playing his age-31 campaign.
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The team signed former Cardinal Rodney Gunter to a three year deal. His PFF grades have been very consistent year-over-year; he regularly finishes in the middle of the pack among all interior defenders.
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The Cards also acquired Al Woods via free agency. The 33-year-old is an above average player defending the run, but only has 4.5 sacks in 10 years. He is projected to be a rotational player in this defense.
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Another guy who is likely to be a reserve player is rookie Davon Hamilton, who was taken early in the third round last April. He will be groomed for a starting defensive tackle job in 2021. He is extremely strong, but needs to improve his burst in order to become a disruptive force in the big league.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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Ouch. This group took a big hit during the offseason.
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First, stud DE Calais Campbell was traded to Baltimore in return of a fifth-round pick (!!!). This was clearly a cap-clearing move since Campbell finished as the second-best edge defender in the whole league last year, based on the PFF rating system. He has averaged 8 sacks in the last 11 years, which is quite impressive. He is known for his pass rushing skills, but he was an awesome run defender. A big loss for the Jags.
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Yannick Ngakoue has demanded a trade and has been fighting publicly via Twitter with co-owner Tony Khan. No deal has been done yet. It seems unlikely he will be in a Jaguars uniform again. Ngakoue is in his prime years and has recorded 37.5 sacks in four years as a pro. Another big blow to this defense.
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Josh Allen’s rookie season was a success. He led the team with 10.5 sacks. He could improve against the running game and in coverage, though. Overall, he obtained the number 48 rank out of 107 edge defenders.
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Things weren’t as pretty for Dawuane Smoot last year. Sure, he racked up six sacks, but he graded out as the worst edge defender in the NFL. One of the main reasons was his abysmal run defense performance.
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With the 20th overall pick, the Jags selected K’Lavon Chaisson out of LSU. He’s a great pass rusher with elite burst. He still needs development due to his young age, but his raw talent is impressive. A good get for Jacksonville.
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The team also acquired Cassius Marsh, formerly of the Cardinals. Don’t hold your breath hoping he’ll be a star. This is his fifth team in seven years and he has never received very good PFF grades in his career.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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The Jaguars had a putrid linebacking corps last year, and it does not bode very well for 2020 either.
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Sure, they signed Joe Schobert away from Cleveland, who has stuffed the score sheet with at last 100 tackles in each of the past three years. He also plays all downs, but his run defense is suspect. He grades out as an average LB in the NFL.
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Myles Jack’s career is not going in the right direction. His PFF grades have deteriorated in each of the past three seasons, going from 79.2 in 2017, down to 68.1 in 2018 before plummeting to 46.1 last year. Following the signing of Schobert, he will slide to outside linebacker, a move that he is excited about. The young former second-rounder is primed for a bounce back year.
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Quincy Williams had an awful rookie season. The 2019 third-round pick was amongt the worst LBs in the league. So was his teammate Donald Payne. 31-year-old Najee Goode isn’t a viable solution either.
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Jacksonville claimed Preston Brown off waivers late last year after getting depleted by injuries at the position. He has not been good in any of his six years in the NFL, so why would it change in 2020?
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Perhaps Leon Jacobs can provide adequate play? He was taken in the 7th round of the 2018 draft, but he has surprised with strong play as a tackler in limited time. He played just 31% of the snaps last year, but we’ll see if the team gives him a heavier workload in 2020.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Jacksonville made another cap-related trade by getting rid of their No. 1 corner, A.J. Bouye. He had a surprisingly bad 2019 season and he will be looking to rejuvenate his career in Denver.
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In order to compensate for the loss, the Jags took C.J. Henderson with the 8th overall pick in this year’s draft. He is at his best when shadowing the opposing team’s top receiver. He has outstanding athleticism, but his play took a step backward last year.
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A potential starter opposite Henderson is newly acquired Rashaan Melvin, formerly of the Lions. He played every down in the 13 games he played last year. He is great against the run, but struggles in coverage. Overall, he is clearly a below average corner who is joining a 6th team in seven years.
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Let’s not discard Tre Herndon too soon. He played 86% of the snaps last year and picked off three passes last year. He received equally poor PFF grades as Melvin, though.
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D.J. Hayden is the favorite to land starting slot corner duties. After five very ordinary seasons in Oakland and Detroit, he has elevated his game a lot since suiting up with the Jaguars. PFF rated him the 11th-best CB in the league last year, his second straight solid season.
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Fourth-round rookie Josiah Scott might push Hayden for the slot man job, but he is unlikely to supplant him at the moment. He could become the starter next year if Hayden leaves via free agency.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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This is the lone position on defense where no changes were made during the offseason. Finally some stability!
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Jarrod Wilson was undrafted coming out of Michigan. His snap count increased big time last year; after playing 30 snaps in 2016, 89 snaps in 2017 and 222 snaps in 2018, he saw the field on over 1,000 snaps last season. He responded very well by grading out as the number 25 safety out of 87 players. A very nice story. He has done a nice job in coverage throughout his career.
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The other starting safety is Ronnie Harrison. The 2018 third-round pick out of Alabama received a 61.1 PFF grade as a rookie before receiving a 60.9 mark last year. That put him as the 67th-best safety. There is not much hope he will develop into an upper tier safety in this league.
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Harrison missed two games due to injuries; in those contests, Andrew Wingard stepped in to replace him, but he wasn’t very effective. The undrafted prospect out of Wyoming is more of a reserve player.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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The linebacking corps received an upgrade after signing Joe Schobert; he will become the team’s MLB right away. The interior of the line was slightly improved by adding Al Woods and Rodney Gunter, while losing Marcell Dareus who only played six games last year anyway.
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The defense suffered a big hit with the departures of three star players: Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye and most likely Yannick Ngakoue (although his situation is still up in the air). Drafting K’Lavon Chaisson and C.J. Henderson was smart, but you cannot ask them to fill such big shoes in their rookie season.
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At safety, Ronnie Harrison is a perennial below average player, while Jarrod Wilson did a very fine job last year. He’s an unproven guy and I’m worried he might regress significantly this season.
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For these reasons, I expect a moderate downgrade for the Jaguars defense in 2020.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate downgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to win 5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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I'll answer this question via two different methods.
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4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction
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I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Jags' 16 games):
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	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 5 WINS	35%	Pinnacle	+154	-11.2%
UNDER 5 WINS	65%	10Bet	-115	+21.6%

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Tip: Bet UNDER 5 wins
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4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads
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Here is the methodology I used here:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Jaguars won more or less than 5 games.

Here are the results:

	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 5 WINS	38.4%	Pinnacle	+154	-2.5%
UNDER 5 WINS	61.6%	10Bet	-115	+15.2%

Tip: Bet UNDER 5 wins (18th-highest ROI out of 32 teams)
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For your information, here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Jags’ 16 regular season games:
HOME: -1 vs CHI, -1 vs CLE, +1.5 vs DET, +3 vs HOU, +6.5 vs IND, 0 vs MIA, +6 vs PIT, +3.5 vs TEN.
ROAD: +16.5 @ BAL, +3.5 @ CIN, +11.5 @ GB, +9 @ HOU, +10.5 @ IND, +7 @ LAC, +11.5 @ MIN, +11 @ TEN.
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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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Thanks for reading my 32 NFL team previews!
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Professor MJ

Author’s Note: I just wrote 3500 words of gibberish. I’m washed boys. I’ll bold some of the highlights; but don’t punish yourself too much or expect a ton out of it. Reads more like a recap into decision making without a ton of time taken to walk through the individual pieces of that process.
TLDR;

• I'll answer specific questions in the comments
• First 3 rounds of 3 completed rookie drafts
• Top 3 RBs undeniable
• CeeDee makes 4
• Burrow and Tua are indecipherable by my accounts
• Don’t pin yourself down when drafting in the first 30 picks, don’t waste time on players that you are going to make every excuse to avoid drafting. Nut up and call the ball
• CD #6 overall on Dallas’ board, Jones intent on him wearing #88, Amari on team friendly deal after 2021 season, Gallup’s contract is up after 2021 (early guess is Amari gone, Lamb/Gallup)
• Leaned upside on Shenault after months of poo-pooing him. Great value right now in the early second
• Trautman, 4 picks traded for him, top 40 player on the Saints boards
• Measure your expectations—even through the excitement of a perfect draft realize that if you’re lucky you might have drafted a, one, uno, stud OR long-term fantasy player

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2020 Rookie Process to Date:

• Notes on the 2020 Class, August ’19
• 2020 Rankings #1, January ’20
• 2020 Rankings #2, March ’20

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Small side note, I have stepped down as Moderator. When I get passionate about something—well, I tend to go overboard...take a brief look at my post history. Either way summer is fast approaching, and it is just a good time to reprioritize things in life.
Big note. This is not a traditional ranking of players. If that is your expectation, this will not be your cup of tea. This is my cathartic debrief and recap from my rookie draft season; I’ll throw out a few trains of thoughts on a few players, hopefully some interesting nuggets that’ll help people, but I understand if most are displeased.
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Foreword

Another year in the books of discussing and allowing data & historical precedence to carry us through the months. Mentally I am already onto 2021 and will probably put out a “Notes on” soon. But for now, let us work through my final rankings of the 2020 class. Things obviously change, more data is pouring out of teams, the off-season will be unique due to COVID-19 and more information will come as our takes metastasize to our brain.
This post is going to bring most people far less utility. Just the way I’ve written it, for that I am sorry. But I wanted to dig at my mindset while I was drafting less every potential hypothetical that we twist ourselves into knots over with these exercises.
In order to deliver my usual posts it requires more nuance than I am willing to produce currently. Some may think, “why bother?” Well, my rookie drafts are done for the season and I thought it would be nice to have a conversation, and hopefully pull people into a broader conversation. Please bear with me, while I used data to assign tiers, much of the decisions making done within the tiers was done on feelings that emerged from digesting that data.
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Quarterback Rankings

I have Burrow and Tua far closer than most people, they are tiered for me. Especially when there is a major discrepancy in draft value required to secure them, I will prioritize taking Tua.
There is a good argument for Justin Herbert in the conversation, but I have never been high on his tools, and collegiate production. Love enters the conversation as the true definition of a “dynasty investment.”
I would be willing to roster a few other guys; Hurts, Fromm, Eason, Gordon but I would not consider them any sooner than the third or fourth round of rookie drafts.

1. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals [-]
2. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins [-]
3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers [-]
4. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers [-]

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Running Back Rankings

Look at the last 20 years of bell-cow running backs with successful rushing QBs and almost all of them average 100+ scrimmage yards/game. Dobbins will be ranked higher than Taylor by the consensus sooner rather than later.
Taylor is still a safe talent on a very good running team with limited competition (sorry Mack & Hines); but I’m not certain how anyone right now can ignore CEH or Dobbins. Below I’ll rank them in the order that’ll piss off the most people, but I would take the guy you can get for the best value in your draft. Today that might be Dobbins, tomorrow it might be Taylor.
If you’re picking at 1, it’s a tough choice. Kansas City and Baltimore are well run programs. CEH collegiate profile was incomplete, only one year of stud production, but does that mean anything in Kansas City? Dobbins was special at Ohio State, but does that lack of preparation in year 2 seep back in now that he’s in the NFL? Is Taylor more concerned with owning Toppers’ Pizza locations in Madison WI than playing football? We all find our reasons to take our guys.
Cam Akers and D’Andre Swift will share a tier, again take the guy you believe in or the guy you can get for the best value.
Everyone else ranked is in a grab bag tier, grab them where-ever is most prudent, I’ve assigned rough values based on where I’ve seen them go and where I start considering taking them. Anyone not listed is considered a round 3/round 4 guy that I’m not concerning myself with. I may love the Anthony McFarland fit/pick but I am not going to waste more words on it.
Rank change [-] speaks to the change of tiering in this case, not a change in position rank.

1. JK Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens [+1]
2. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts [-]
3. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs [+1]
4. Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams [+1]
5. D’Andre Swift, Detroit Lions [-]
6. AJ Dillon. Green Bay Packers [mid to late Round 2 of your rookie draft]
7. Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers [mid to late Round 2]
8. Antonio Gibson, Washington Redskins [Round 2/3 turn]
9. Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers [Round 3]

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Popcorn time!

Wide Receiver Rankings

1. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys [-]
2. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings [-]
3. Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles [+2]
4. Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars [+6]
5. Bryan Edwards, Las Vegas Raiders [-2]
6. Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts [+1]
7. Denzel Mims, New York Jets [-1]
8. Devin Duvernay, Baltimore Ravens [UR]
9. Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams [UR]

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Am I missing a few guys? Absolutely I am. These are the guys, for the most part that I am targeting. In theory, Jerry Jeudy is my 2nd ranked wide receiver; Henry Ruggs is my 5th ranked receiver. When it comes down to molding a draft board; where I’m seeing Jeudy go I NEED one of my top 3 RBs; hell I’ll move up 1 or 2 spots to make sure it happens. Beyond that I am in the strong lean Akers > Jeudy camp.
To further highlight this, I do like Jeudy. But in this moment..I want, CEH-Dobbins-Taylor-Akers, Burrow-Tua, and CeeDee over him. That means the earliest I am drafting Jeudy is 8 and the board has to fall that way. I'd have to be the Dallas Cowboys to have a pick in that range and also have the board fall that way. I'm just not getting Jeudy.
I want Akers-Swift-Tua-Reagor-Jefferson where Ruggs commonly comes off the board. You should absolutely be considering Aiyuk when he slips into the second, or Claypool anywhere from the mid second on. You’ll figure that out—you’ll have your preferences. I have mine.

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So here is the crux of all of this, three, real, live drafts and the results for them.
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THEORY TO REALITY (LIVE DRAFT RESULTS)

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Teams are color-coated (no color alignment between drafts, bright red in Draft A is not the guy that is bright red in Draft C); my selections, the player’s name is highlighted in orange. Two of the drafts went to 4 rounds, a third to 6; at the time of this screen capture Draft C had just gotten through the third round.
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Draft A

A freshly booted devy superflex league, TE premium, PP1D, draconian QB scoring (+6 touchdowns, -4 turnovers), QB/SF/1RB/1W1TE/5FLEX, 10 teams. Going into it the startup, I went stud-only early and then poured capital into Devy and Rookie picks. My baseline roster of note was Wentz-Wilson-Saquon-Nuk. Devy picks yielded Pickens, Garrett Wilson, Najee Harris.
At 1.05, the pick was always CeeDee Lamb. My flair is Lamb Brigade, I’ve been on Lamb since before the season. The Cowboys’ having Lamb as their 6th rated player, and Jerry requesting that he wears Irvin and Dez’s #88 only solidifies it for me. This is dynasty. Cooper is on a team friendly deal after the 2021 season, Gallup is due for resigning after 2021, I trust Lamb to hit his markers (500+ yards year 1, better year 2). My expectation is a Marvin Harrison-Reggie Wayne or Andre Johnson-DeAndre Hopkins type come up. I’d be lying if I said I didn’t give JK Dobbins a thought—but it was CeeDee ForMe. Let’s be clear, Dobbins is the safer play here. I just have a favorite.
Reading through this I want to further clarify this pick. It was a numbers game for me. I have Lamb >> Jeudy whereas I have Dobbins only > Akers. By counting the picks I liked my chances of getting Akers at 8. Didn't work out that way.
At 1.08, I was originally hoping I might get my first share of Akers. That wasn’t to be and this particularly decision point wasn’t difficult either. I counted out the players I liked, Jefferson, Swift, Reagor, Tua; and asked myself who was going to be there at 2.01. Least likely to be there was Tua because of superflex and positional scarcity. There are absolutely some worlds I take one of the other 3; but not this one.
At 2.01, best of the rest. Reagor was the easy choice for me. Let’s be clear here I am a huge fan of Reagor, had him as my WR2 coming into the 2019 season. Do not get caught expecting him to be a year 1 dynamo. Nothing would surprise me, in the same vein Ertz/Goedert will get there 200 targets and I suspect Alshon and DeSean will be in the gameplan to some degree (over under around 200 targets if healthy). Cap restraints make me reluctant to believe either player gets shipped before the season. There is room to consider Ruggs here instead of Reagor.
At 2.03, this was my first Laviska share. It was perplexing to be honest. If you’ve read any of my work to this point—I think you’re surprised I have two shares of Laviska. Part of it was the post-draft interviews, Jacksonville talking about ‘Viska getting a good medical eval and that they believe his surgeries with good rehabilitation habits have corrected all of his nagging issues; probably a pipedream. There is an air of upside to this guy that I can’t shrug off, he has sink in his routes that are second to none in this class. When I looked around at Mims, Aiyuk, Love, Pittman, Hamler, Higgins, I simply do not feel the same about their profiles. Let’s highlight that, “I did not feel the same.” Toss in Fournette on his way out, myself being a bit of a Jay Gruden-stan, and Jacksonville and Viska hooking up that night to discuss their plans for him. I can’t shake the upside. This is a high-risk pick—but I LOVE this value in the early to mid-second. Even if he is a stud, I promise you I will joke until the end of the time that I expect him to be on my IR at any moment.
At 2.10, my boy, Bryan Edwards. It’s been a long time. Two years of work and we finally made it. My first share of Bryan Edwards. I am led to believe that he was going to put up a great combine at 6-3, 215; he immediately slots in as their iso-X; and Mayock sang so many praises I had to catch my breath. This draft has been all heart for me and the statistical profiles of every one of these guys have my back. I was uneasy with letting Dillon go here. I frantically tried to trade up for him before and after the Edwards pick. Just such a good value for Dillon. I later found out that the 3.02 was insta-drafting either Edwards or Dillon so I was screwed either way and in my heart of hearts I’m glad I have Edwards.
The one problem with this draft, no immediate starters to fill into those FLEX spots for this draft. I was so busy chasing my guys that I am criminally thin at RB on this roster (although I would have gone Akers at 8 to remedy this in the moment—probably not the best choice in hindsight); thankfully I had a good late draft, while people were scooping up third and fourth round rookie picks I was grab DeSean Jackson’s, Marvin Jones types that by week 4 or 5 of the coming season I should be more comfortable with my lineup.

Draft B

A newly acquired league that might be a little softcore for my tastes. I constantly have to remind myself that it’s only 4PT passing TD, 1QB and fairly small starting lineups for 12 teams (QB/2RB/2W1TE/2FLEX). The roster is pretty shallow for my tastes, but I do like the starting lineup, the most notable assets include Wentz-Elliott-Adams-Odell-Andrews.
At 2.06, the board was already light. There were guys there we can convince ourselves of, but I was pretty much down to Edwards-Dillon-Tua-Burrow. The ground swell in the league suggested that a QB was likely going to be there at 2.12, even if I was just stashing Love for the next half decade; who cares it’s 2.12. Knowing that most of the league was aware of my online presence, I decided to go Edwards. Looking back at the move, I probably should have gone with the upside presented in AJ Dillon’s profile—but you’re trying to make the best out of a crap sandwich at this point in the draft, regardless of what anyone is trying to pump you full of.
At 2.08, I lucked out and Dillon was there, easy insta-draft.
At 2.12, I probably played myself. It’s 1QB, I don’t expect to have to start Tua year one, I have a general affinity for him—and let’s be honest; do you really want to bet significant money on who will have a better career? As you can tell—at this point I went full “screw it.” Will I come to regret the pick? Probably. Will it undermine my team in this league—in 1QB, 4pt passing TD, nah.
At 3.10, I traded for this pick. Honestly, I had 3 concurrent rookie drafts running and I was patently sick of them. Waay too many people were running most of their 8 hour clocks and I was tired of waiting. I traded 2, 2020 4ths (became Quez Watkins and James Proche) and a 2021 4th to get up to 3.10 and end my draft. What if I told you the Saints traded not 1, not 2, but 4 picks to move up to get Trautman, and then after that came out and said that he was a top 40 rated player on their board. What if then, after that I told you their only tight end of note is 33 years old. Hi, one Adam Trautman please.

Draft C

This is the coup de grace. This is my Mona Lisa, so much went right, I don’t even know how to react. This league is superflex, ppr, 1QB/1SF/2RB/3W1TE/2FLEX/1DST, 12 teams, 6pt passing touchdowns.
Tua went 1.01 because the 1.01-owner’s team (newly adopted orphan) is legitimately bad, full rebuild, he’s aiming Lawrence next year. He has Tua-Burrow evenly ranked, his hope is that Tua gets redshirted this year and does his team no good.
The owner that selected both CEH and Jonathan Taylor considered Burrow over Taylor but is pretty solid at QB. The 2/3 owner tried literally everything to get 4/5 to acquire CeeDee. At one point he was offering Evans straight up. No dice. He had quite the run of attempts to trade, and they were clear overpays by most people’s standards, no one wanted to budge; he did it all throughout the first and second rounds.
We all assumed Burrow at 4, it’s the only reason an overpay won’t work, right? BOOM, Jeudy. At this point I don’t know what to do with my hands. The #5 owner was planning Dobbins 100% of the way and never expected Burrow to be right there. He’s trying everything to get out of the #5 pick and turn it into gold. The 2/3 owner is throwing everything and the kitchen sink at him—not good enough. I’m sweating bullets for my Lamb share..and finally the #5 relents and takes Burrow.
Examples like this, is why I tell people not to just draft a guy and assume they'll get a kings-ransom elsewhere. Sure 1-3 teams in that superflex league might be interested, but in the moment, at likely his cheapest price no one expressed interest in Burrow. Don't expect that to change suddenly over night. To further that example, If Ruggs some how falls to you at 2.06 and you don't like him, don't suddenly expect that'll you'll be able to turn him for a profit later--the league, or at least the people on the board and active on that day are telling you they really aren't that interested.
At 1.06, I take Lamb. The Draft A and C were running pretty close to one another so when I was on the clock (many shared owners between A & C) in A, I was waiting for my pick in C so that I could ensure I didn’t get sniped for Lamb. Reasons above described why I’m all in on Lamb—past post history just furthers it. Why listen to me when you can listen to the mountains of pundits.
At 1.07, this was the beauty. This was the death blow, I can’t believe I got Dobbins here. Just a stupid bit of luck that the 1.01 owner is getting cute (who knows it may work), the 1.04 owner was glued to Jeudy, and the 1.05 owner felt he couldn’t pass on Burrow.
I attempt to make plays for Reagor and Akers as they fell, no dice anywhere.
At 2.04, at this point I had my first share of Viska in Draft A, this being Draft C; I just followed through on my convictions. I did consider Aiyuk but felt no loyalty to that pick. Taking perceived upside.
At 2.08, again I went heart. In this draft I was quite afraid there were 2 people that would snipe me on Edwards just to mess with me. We are a pretty good bunch and atleast 1 of them is fully aware of my interest in Edwards, the other 1 should have had an inkling after we facetimed through day 1 and day 2. Both picked between 2.04 and 3.04 so I wasn’t going to take the risk. Part of me wishes I would have taken Dillon and risked Edwards for 3.04, but it is what it is.
I did put out offers to try to get Dillon, in hindsight I could have gotten something done at 2.10 if I was a little more forthcoming and persistent, so that kind of sucks.
At 3.04, the original plan was Gibson with the way the board was falling. Didn’t happen that way. I had already taken Trautman in Draft A and was well aware of the boons assigned to his profile, 3.04 was my last pick of note in this draft so while closing my eyes to the availability of Moss-Kelley-Hamler; I see the upside and might regret it again—fatigue of the process and a need in that league for TE drove me back to Trautman.
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RECAP

How did I come to my decisions? A lot of it was based on profile and statistical modeling. Even the best prospects by any modeled outcome have a 50-50 chance of succeeding. Most of your top prospects in any given year it’s about 20%. Try to make good value decisions, try to value more complete profiles, consider all of the intel out there on prospects but at the end of the day; who am I? Who am I to say CeeDee is going to succeed and do it big? I’m not, and I won’t; I just believe based on every piece of data out there that I like my odds of the coin flipping what I call. Same goes with Dobbins, Taylor, Clyde Edwards-Helaire. They just scream “I have a role and I’m going to give you fantasy points.”
We aren’t honest enough with ourselves when we draft these guys. I can speak glowingly of each and everyone one of my guys—hell I can speak negatively about the guys I drafted (Hi Laviska) but none of that matters, what matters is what the board looks like when it is your turn to draft, what it will look like after you draft, and whether any of it matters.
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Tips to Help You with Your Upcoming Draft

1. Go watch post-draft coach/GM interviews. They are fluff, they’ll say things that you’ll wrongly assign value to; there is a good argument that I’ve done that above. But some of them are going to tease to you just how highly they valued a guy (Diontae Johnson, round 1, Bruce Arians miffed that the Steelers sniped him), like Trautman, like Lamb. Will it eventually make these guys more successful? Nah, but it may just tell us how much rope a prospect has..
2. Statistical models aren’t the end all be all—but dismissing them entirely is foolhardy at best, they are built to give you better odds. Problem is people like to make all their decisions on those odds. Does it matter if a model assigns a 22% probability to player A and a 19% probability of success to player B? Generally no, models based on football data do not have that level of viability. As a rule of thumb say a range of predicted success is 1% to 50%. I would consider the margins probably about 10 percentage points, so generally buckets guys between 40-50, 30-40, etc etc. But if one guy is 41% and another guy is 39% I'd say the decision point is muddled and unclear, but if one guys is 41% and the other guy is 29%, then I'd consider it; even then it's roughly 2:5 and 1:3 odds, are they really all that discernible in practice?
3. Understand a players role, watch for yourself, and listen to others. I’d say my evaluation process is about 30% defining for myself, 20% listening to others, 30% statistical models, and 10% bias developed from learning about the player as a person, 10% hype baby.
4. Nothing is the end all be all. I think I’ve highlighted that at every turn. We are going to pin ourselves to X means they’ll be successful. It could be a key/a tell at a player's potential, it likely is not.

1. Introduction

Giants fans had hopes of making a playoff push after rookie QB Daniel Jones won his first two NFL games to bring back the team to a 2-2 record. However, the team underwent a nine-game losing skid, while seeing many good players go down to injuries.
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The team fired head coach Pat Shurmur, and the new leader will be Joe Judge, a member of the Patriots coaching staff for eight years.
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There is optimism around this franchise with young budding stars on offense. After six losing seasons over the past seven years, can the Giants finally turn the corner?
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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Taking Daniel Jones as the #6 overall pick in the 2019 draft was a bit of a head-scratcher. No one is laughing at the Giants’ pick anymore.
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Jones was brilliant during preseason games by going 29-of-34 for 416 passing yards, 2 TDs and no picks. The team still gave Eli Manning the starting nod, but that didn’t last very long. Prior to Week #3, head coach Pat Shurmur announced the Daniel Jones era was about to begin.
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His first NFL game was one to remember. He threw 2 TD passes and rushed for a couple more in a wild 32-31 win in Tampa (thanks to a missed 34-yard chip shot field goal by Matt Gay).
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Jones went on to throw 24 touchdown passes by completing 284-of-459 passes, a subpar 61.9% completion rate. His main issue was turning the ball over too often: he was picked off on 12 occasions, while fumbling 18 times.
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Jones still showed a lot of upside. As a comparison, many considered Kyler Murray’s rookie season as a nice success. Both Murray and Jones threw 12 interceptions, but Jones racked up 4 additional TD passes with three fewer games played.
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Eli Manning retired after an illustrious career, so the team signed free agent Colt McCoy, formerly of the Redskins. Every time I’ve seen him play, he’s been pretty bad as a passer. He can do some damage with his legs once in a while, but that’s about it. He has 29 career TD passes versus 27 interceptions over 10 years. Draw your own conclusions.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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Saquon Barkley’s numbers were down from his rookie season, even accounting for the fact that he missed three games due to an ankle injury. His yards-per-carry average dropped from 5.0 to 4.6, which was still pretty good. He was also targeted a lot fewer in the passing game.
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I’m not worried about him. He is super talented and he will benefit from having a QB that has now more experience in this league. Defenses won’t be able to stack the line because they’ll know that Daniel Jones can be dangerous. Barkley is one of the best in the business at his position.
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Newly acquired Dion Lewis is the favorite to win the #2 role. He had his best year by far in 2017 with the Pats by rushing for 896 yards and reaching the end zone on nine occasions. His next-best season? 517 rushing yards the following year in Tennessee, but his 3.3 yards-per-carry average was really bad. He is more of a third-down back who can catch passes out of the backfield.
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Last year, Wayne Gallman seemed to be Barkley’s main backup. However, the coaching staff didn’t seem to trust him very much. Gallman even ended up being a healthy scratch for a few games.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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Sterling Shepard received the highest marks from PFF among Giants receivers, but one thing causes some concern about the 27-year old pass catcher: concussions. He suffered many of them during the 2019 season.
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Hopefully he can be healthy in the upcoming season because he’s been very good. If you project his 10-game 2019 season into a full 16-game year, his stat line would have been 91-922-5. He has been a consistent producer in each of his first four years in the NFL.
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Golden Tate missed 5 games last season (4 due to a suspension and 1 because of a concussion). He had missed just two contests in the previous eight seasons!
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Much like Shepard, Tate has always been a consistent player. His “worst” season between 2014 and 2018 was 74 receptions for 795 yards and 4 TDs. He will be 32 years old when the season opens, but he seems to have gas left in the tank, as shown by the fact that he was on pace for a 983-yard season last year.
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The team leader in receiving yards turned out to be a surprise: fifth-round rookie Darius Slayton. He caught 48 passes for 740 yards, while hauling in 8 TD passes. You can’t expect much more out of a fifth-rounder, especially playing with a rookie QB!
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Slayton had three games with a couple of scores. All of them occurred on the road, which shows his great character. With Shepard and Tate with a clean bill of health, I’m not sure he can match his 2019 performance, so I’d be cautious if I were a fantasy owner.
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Cody Latimer was thrown into action following the numerous injuries to the Giants receiving corps. He did a decent job, but he is now off to Washington.
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Losing Latimer won’t hurt very much. Having a trio composed of Shepard-Tate-Slayton is nice.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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Evan Engram is certainly an upcoming tight end in the NFL. His main problem has been staying on the field. He missed one game in 2017, then five in 2018 and eight more last year. That’s worrisome.
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He underwent a surgery that requires a lengthy rehab. He is likely to miss many offseason activities.
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Prior to last year’s injury, he was on pace for his best season. If you project his numbers to a full 16-game year, he would have caught 88 passes for 934 yards and 6 TDs. Only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller caught more than 88 passes as tight ends last year.
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Rhett Ellison was mainly used as a blocking TE. He missed a few months with a concussion and decided it was time to hang up his cleats.
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In order to fill the void left by Ellison, the team signed Levine Toilolo. He only caught two passes with the Niners last year and he doesn’t offer much in the passing game. He is expected to be the primary blocking tight end in this offense.
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Kaden Smith was drafted by San Francisco last year, then released and claimed off waivers by the Giants in September. He ended up getting quite a bit of playing time following Engram’s injury. Over the final six games, he averaged 5 receptions for 45 yards. He remains unlikely to be involved very much as long as Engram is healthy since he is limited in terms of talent.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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The team needed to upgrade this position in order to make it to the next level. Other than Kevin Zeitler, all other 2019 starters were either average, or below-average.
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Zeitler had been one of the best guars in the league throughout his first seven seasons in the NFL. His 8th year, which happened to be his first in a Giants uniform, was no different. He was graded as the number 7 guard in the entire league by the PFF rating system.
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The team’s other guard, Will Hernandez, saw his PFF grade drop from 66.7 to 58.4 after being chosen in the second round of the 2018 draft. He finished as the 53rd guard out of 81 players.
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At center, the team relied on Jon Halapio. He played pretty poorly and tore his Achilles’ in the season finale. The team has yet to re-sign him as they plan to check on his rehab during the summer. If he doesn’t come back, Spencer Pulley is the favorite to get the job, but he’s no better.
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Nate Solder protects Daniel Jones’ blindside. He is now 32 years old and is coming off a year where he received his lowest PFF grade over his 9-year career. That’s a source of concern for sure.
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Finally, we are rounding off the offensive line with right tackle Mike Remmers. He was borderline starting material and he did an adequate job last year. However, he left for the Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs.
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Andrew Thomas was taken with the fourth overall pick last April. He is a lock to get a starting job right away. He played RT as a freshman with Georgia, before moving to LT in the next two years. Will he play RT with the Giants, or will they use him at LT while moving Solder to RT? No matter what, he’s very likely to be an upgrade for this unit.
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The intriguing part is whether third-round rookie Matt Peart can crack the starting lineup or not. He played his first two seasons as a LT with UConn before sliding to the RT spot in his final two years. The word on Peart is he has the physical traits required to succeed, but he lacks aggressiveness and strength at the moment. He should compete with Nate Solder in training camp.
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The team signed Cameron Fleming, who has been primarily a backup during his six-year career with the Patriots and Cowboys.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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Will the 2020 Giants offense be better than the 2019 version?
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The first thing that comes to mind is how much this unit suffered from the injury bug last year. Barkley, Tate, Shepard and Engram all missed time due injuries (or suspension). That alone is more likely to diminish than to increase, so this should help the production.
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I see more upside with this offense. Daniel Jones now has one year of experience under the belt. Dion Lewis provides better depth than Wayne Gallman or Buck Allen. The receiving corps is more likely to be healthy.
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The lone question mark concerns the offensive line. They weren’t so good last year. They didn’t address the position in free agency, so all hopes are in Andrew Thomas’ hands (and possibly to a much lesser degree, their 3rd round pick Matt Peart).
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My final conclusion is a moderate upgrade over 2019. The team had the 18th-most points scored last year, and it might go up to the 10th-14th spot.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Moderate upgrade
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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This is an underrated group. They don’t have big names, but they have been pretty effective. Indeed, all four main guys finished among the top 36 DLs out of 114 qualifiers, based on PFF rankings!
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Leonard Williams was traded from the Jets to the Giants last year. He received his lowest PFF mark of his five-year career, but he was still way above-average. He is now looking at a massive contract extension.
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Dexter Lawrence was the 17th overall pick in last year’s draft. He was good in all aspects of the game and finished as the 20th-best DL in the NFL. A great start to his career!
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Dalvin Tomlinson and B.J Hill are two more young guys who have performed at a high level thus far in their respective NFL careers. Both played roughly 50% of the snaps and they finished as the number 16 and 20 interior defenders based on PFF ratings.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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Markus Golden led the team with 10 sacks. That was great, but he is now asking for $10 million per year, which the cash-strapped Giants cannot afford. For this reason, he is unlikely to re-sign with the team, unfortunately.
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The team found a cheaper option with Kyler Fackrell, who is coming over from Green Bay. He clearly had a down year with just one sack, one year after posting 10.5! His run defense is also very suspect.
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After being selected in third round of the 2018 draft out of Georgia, Lorenzo Carter posted 4 sacks and 41 tackles in his rookie season. He slightly increased those numbers in his sophomore year with 45 tackles and 4.5 sacks. He is an above-average, yet unspectacular, edge defender in this league.
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Rookie Oshane Ximines also recorded 4.5 sacks, but his PFF grade was much lower than Carter’s. Indeed, he wasn’t nearly as good against the run, nor in pass coverage.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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Alec Ogletree is more name than game. Most fans know him, but he never obtained a PFF mark above 63.3. His skills defending the run are simply not good. His two seasons with the Giants have been disappointing and he won’t be back with the team in 2020.
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New York signed last year’s second leading tackler, Blake Martinez. He has spent his first four years with the Packers and racked up at least 144 tackles in each of his past three years.
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Don’t be misled too much by the numbers, though. He’s not that great. He does the job, but he’s from being a top-20 linebacker.
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After two mediocre seasons and failing to crack San Francisco’s lineup during the 2019 training camp, David Mayo was an unlikely candidate to become a good LB. He had just 51 tackles in four years. Yet, he surprised many with 82 tackles and two sacks, earning surprisingly high marks from PFF. Still, I wouldn’t hold my breath about him matching his 2019 performance.
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Deone Bucannon has been a major bust as a former first-round pick in the 2014 draft. He started the year with the Bucs before being released, and then signed by the Giants. He played nine games with the team. He’s unlikely to make a big impact.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Last year’s starters were rookie DeAndre Baker and Janoris Jenkins.
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Baker was picked towards the end of the first round in last year’s draft. Coming out of Georgia, he struggled mightily in coverage. PFF graded him as the number 105 CB out of 112 qualifiers. He must clearly up his game in 2020.
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Jenkins was much more solid year on the field, but off-the-field incidents led to his release late in the season. He openly complained about not being used to cover top wideouts, but the icing on the cake was an inappropriate Twitter exchange with a fan.
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The Giants made somewhat of a splash by acquiring one of the top available corners on the market, James Bradberry. He instantly becomes their starting corner opposite of Baker. He has picked up eight interceptions in his first four seasons in the league.
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PFF is not very high on Bradberry, though. He obtained the #68 spot out of 112 CBs last year, and has never received very high marks throughout his career. Don’t expect him to be the savior.
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The team’s depth is great at the position: Sam Beal, Corey Ballentine and Grant Haley aren’t good enough to start in the NFL.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Antoine Bethea played 99.6% of the defensive snaps last year. The team was not satisfied with his play and released him in the offseason. According to PFF, he wasn’t horrible since he ended the year as the #40 safety out of 87 guys.
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The other starter was Jabrill Peppers. The former first-round pick has done an “okay” job thus far in his career. He has one interception in each of his first three seasons.
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With a glaring hole at the position, the Giants picked up Xavier McKinney early in the second round in this year’s draft. He was very productive with the Crimson Tide while playing from different spots on defense (from the slot, as a safety, or in the box). He has great instincts, but he could improve as a tackler.
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Julian Love picked up the slack when Peppers down to an injury last year. He was a 2019 fourth-rounder out of Notre Dame and he also did respectable work.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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Markus Golden is gone; in comes Kyler Fackrell. That’s a net loss for the Giants. I also believe the team was better off with Janoris Jenkins at CB than newly acquired James Bradberry. Also, getting rid of Antoine Bethea may not be a positive for the team when focusing on the 2020 season, although rookie Xavier McKinney could successfully fill his shoes.
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Granted, the team upgraded the linebacking corps by replacing Alec Ogletree with Blake Martinez.
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As of late February, the team had the lowest cap dollars devoted to the defensive side of the ball. You can’t expect great results under such circumstances.
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The team allowed the third-highest number of points last year, so there is not much room for going down further. Still, to me the talent level dropped a little bit overall in comparison to 2019.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small downgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the New York Giants are expected to win 6.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
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I'll answer this question via two different methods.
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4.1 Professor MJ's Prediction
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I won't go into the mathematical details, but here is a summary of my own personal pick (based on my analysis above and my estimated spreads for the Giants' 16 games):
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	Estimated Probability	Best Odds	ROI
OVER 6.5 WINS	24%	+130 (Pinnacle)	-44.8%
UNDER 6.5 WINS	76%	-118 (Sports Interaction)	+40.4%

Tip: Bet UNDER 6.5 wins
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4.2 Based on BetOnline's Point Spreads
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Here is the methodology I used here:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Giants won more or less than 6.5 games.

​
Here are the results:
​

	Estimated Probability	Best Odds	ROI
OVER 6.5 WINS	35.4%	+130 (Pinnacle)	-18.6%
UNDER 6.5 WINS	64.6%	-118 (Sports Interaction)	+19.3%

Tip: Bet UNDER 6.5 wins
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In summary, both analyses recommend betting the UNDER. I do like this play quite a bit, personally. I believe their offense should be exciting to watch, but their defense is atrocious.
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Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Giants’ 16 regular season games:

• HOME: 0 vs ARI, +1 vs CLE, +3 vs DAL, +3.5 vs PHI, +3 vs PIT, +7.5 vs SF, +3 vs TB, -5 vs WAS.
• ROAD: +12.5 @ BAL, +5 @ CHI, 0 @ CIN, +7.5 @ DAL, +7.5 @ LAR, +5 @ PHI, +9 @ SEA, 0 @ WAS.

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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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TOMORROW: The 2020 preview for the San Francisco 49ers (the team whose ROI is the 14th-highest in the NFL)!
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Professor MJ

1. Introduction

Franchise QB Andrew Luck stunned the NFL world a few weeks before the 2019 season began by announcing his retirement at age 29. I really felt sorry for Colts fans; that had to be a devastating blow. The timing also prevented the team from drafting accordingly.
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Indianapolis rolled with Jacoby Brissett and they were right in the thick of the playoff race. They were sitting on a 6-4 record before a four-game losing skid crushed their hopes.
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2. Offensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

2.1 Quarterbacks (QBs)
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After spending 16 seasons with the Chargers (!!!), Philip Rivers will be wearing a Colts uniform in 2020. That’s going to look weird.
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Last year, Rivers had his fourth-highest passing yard output with 4,615, but the problem lied with his poor TD-to-INT ratio. Indeed, 20 interceptions represented the second-most of his career, while his 23 TD passes were its lowest in 12 years.
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Rivers has never been much of a runner. Now in his late thirties, things are looking even worse. He seems to get bottled up easily. Also, he appeared dead armed at numerous times. We’ll see if a change of scenery will rejuvenate his career, but it seems doubtful at this point.
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Jacoby Brissett has to be one of the top backup QB in the league. With Andrew Luck announcing his surprise retirement a few weeks before the 2019 season began, Brissett took over under center.
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Brissett didn’t have a great year. Throwing just six interceptions was nice, but racking up just 18 TD passes just won’t cut it in the NFL. Granted, he didn’t have a lot of weapons at his disposal with the Colts lacking a #2 WR and their top wideout T.Y. Hilton missing six games. He still represents a good insurance policy in case the Rivers experiment doesn’t pan out.
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2.2 Running Backs (RBs)
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After missing to hit the 1,000 rushing-yard mark by 92, Marlon Mack accomplished the feat in 2019 with 1,091 rushing yards. He’s not much of a receiver, though; he caught just 14 passes last year.
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My opinion may not be very popular, but I’m not sold on him. I believe he benefits a lot from the great blocking in front of him. He rarely gets much more than what’s blocked ahead of him. Still, he’ll remain Indy’s top back, while splitting time with a few more guys.
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Jordan Wilkins added a bit over 300 rushing yards by posting a nice 6.0 yards-per-rush average. The year before, that average turned out to be 5.6. Those are great numbers, but the team seems reluctant to increase his workload.
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Nyheim Hines is mainly used as a pass catcher. He might take on an Austin Ekeler-type role with Rivers this year.
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Considering the depth at the position, taking Jonathan Taylor early in the 2nd round of the draft may sound puzzling at first. Perhaps the organization agrees with me about Mack not being as great as he looks. The fact that Mack is set to hit free agency at the end of the year also played a role in the decision as well.
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Taylor carried the ball 926 times for the Wisconsin Badgers. He rushed for at least 1,975 yards in each of his three college years, which is unreal! He is a great runner with cement hands; he fumbles the ball too often and doesn’t catch very well out of the backfield.
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2.3 Wide Receivers (WRs)
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T.Y. Hilton had missed just four games during his first seven seasons in the NFL; he missed six matchups in 2019 alone. He ended with career-lows in receptions (45) and receiving yards (501).
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He stormed out of the gate with 30 receptions, 306 yards and 5 TDs over the first five games. During the next five: 15 catches, 195 yards and 0 TD. He had an injury-riddled season.
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I believe he can revert to his old self. He showed he could still play at a high level early in the season, but injuries got the best of him. We’ll see how his 30-year old body reacts in 2020.
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The undrafted receiver from Old Dominion, Zach Pascal, showed some flashes last year. He led the team with 45 receptions and 5 TDs. I don’t believe he can do much better, though.
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It’s difficult to evaluate Parris Campbell’s first year as a pro. He had a sore hamstring, a sports hernia, a broken hand and a broken foot in 2019. It’s hard to show off your skills under such circumstances.
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The speedy receiver out of Ohio St. will have a chance to prove his worth in the upcoming season. He was selected in the 2nd round of the 2019 draft at the #59 overall spot.
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Another candidate to start opposite Hilton is second-round rookie Michael Pittman from USC. The word on him is he’s a hard worker with a good mix of size and speed. He also does a great job with contested catches and he has reliable hands, as shown by his five drops out of 254 targets in college.
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2.4 Tight Ends (TEs)
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The Colts had a nice combo of pass catching tight ends with Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron. Both finished with similar above-average marks from PFF, but Ebron packed his bags to head to Pittsburgh. His presence will be missed, even though he’s known for his tendency to drop passes.
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Doyle’s numbers decreased last year, but they are likely to shoot up following Ebron’s departure. After catching 59 and 80 balls during the 2016 and 2017 seasons, he missed most of the 2018 season before hauling in “just” 43 passes last year. He struggled down the stretch with just 7 receptions in four contests, but the 6’6’’ guy is likely to bounce back.
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Mo Alie-Cox could see an increased role in 2020. He has only caught 15 passes in two years, but has received great grades as a blocker.
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2.5 Offensive Line (OL)
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This unit has to be one of the strongest in the entire league. They do a great job, both in the running and passing game.
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After pondering about the possibility of retiring, left tackle Anthony Castonzo opted to sign a two-year deal. He graded as the seventh-best tackle in the league according to PFF, but he turns 32 very soon. Keep that in mind.
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Pro Bowler Quenton Nelson has been a star at left guard. The number six overall pick from the 2018 draft out of Notre Dame has not disappointed. He was rated the second-best guard in the league, only behind Brandon Brooks from the Eagles.
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Center Ryan Kelly has been a steady guy during his first four years with the Colts. He’s entering his prime years at age 27. He obtained the #8 spot out of 37 centers based on PFF ratings.
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Braden Smith was a second-round pick in the 2018 draft. After receiving a very respectable 71.8 grade in his rookie season, he improved upon those numbers to reach a 79.8 mark last year. All signs point towards him being a smart selection.
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Right guard Mark Glowinski seems to be the weakest link of the fortress. He was claimed off waivers in 2018 after the Seahawks released him. He has been an average player in his two-year stint in Indy.
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In summary, all five starters are returning which is excellent news for the Colts. Having continuity on the offensive line is critical to success.
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2020 VS 2019 OFFENSE
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The whole QB position received a lift with the addition of Philip Rivers. Whether he’ll be an adequate starter or not remains to be seen, but having Rivers-Brissett has to be viewed as a better alternative than having Brissett-Hoyer, as was the case in 2019.
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The RB and WR positions remain fairly intact with the exceptions of a few backups who won’t be there anymore. The team definitely has good depth in the backfield; the same cannot be said about the receiving corps. However, the WR position is much more likely to see an improvement with Hilton having a clean bill of health and Parris Campbell getting a chance to show what he can do at the pro level (as well as rookie Michael Pittman).
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At tight end, losing Ebron represents a deterioration for the team.
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Finally, how is the 2020 outlook for the offensive line compared to last year? Even though I love the group, you have to expect a downgrade here. These guys played at a high level, and none of them missed a single game last year. Can you really expect them not to miss any game due to injuries in 2020? That seems highly unlikely.
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Therefore, we have an expected upgrade at QB and WR, but a likely downgrade at TE and on the OL. The team finished 16th out of 32 teams in terms of points scored per game. I expect the production to stay approximately the same.
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Stable
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3. Defensive Position-by-Position Breakdown

3.1 Defensive Linemen (DLs)
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The best player on the interior of the defensive line for the Colts has been Denico Autry. After posting 10.5 sacks over his first four seasons with the Raiders, he exploded with 9 sacks with the Colts in 2018, but a disappointing 3.5 last year.
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Still, his level of play has been adequate as he finished as the 32nd-best DL among 114 qualifiers. He was a respectable player in all aspects of the game.
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Considering Grover Stewart was a mediocre player, the team reinforced the position by acquiring a couple of 49ers players: DeForest Buckner and Sheldon Day.
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The Colts sacrificed the #13 overall pick in the 2020 draft in order to get Buckner. That’s a fair price to pay for one of the best interior defenders in the league who is also entering his prime years. He’s been good both against the run and the pass; he has averaged 7.1 sacks per season. What a huge boost for this unit!
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As for Sheldon Day, he’s not nearly as good as Buckner. He’s more of a rotational presence. His PFF grades have been a bit below-average thus far in his four-year career.
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3.2 Defensive Ends (DEs) / Edge Rushers (ED)
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Justin Houston was clearly the most dangerous pass rusher the Colts had in 2019. In his first season with Indy after spending eight years in Kansas City, he led the team with 11 sacks.
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Despite missing some games due to injuries during his nine-year career, he has average 9.9 sacks per season. Now on the wrong side of 30, you need to start being concerned about whether his play will tail off or not.
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Jabaal Sheard was used on more than 50% of the defensive snaps. He regularly gets 4-5 sacks per season, as was the case last year. However, poor tackling has penalized him in his PFF grades, making him the 81st-best edge defender out of 107 players. He has yet to be signed by any team so far.
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Al-Quadin Muhammad played 47% of the snaps and had mitigated success. It was his best season over his three-year career, but nothing spectacular either. He’s not a great athlete and was a former sixth-round pick; he has limited upside.
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3.3 Linebackers (LBs)
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I don’t think the Colts regret picking Darius Leonard in the second round of the 2018 draft. As a rookie, he led the league in tackles with 163 (19 more than any other player!). Last year, he picked up 121 tackles in 13 games, on pace for 149.
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He is the total package. He’s efficient in run defense, in coverage and as a pass rusher. As a matter of fact, he has recorded 12 sacks during those two years.
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That being said, Colts fans have to be concerned about some comments he made last year. He was concussed for three weeks following a big collision with Derrick Henry and he experienced painful headaches for a while. During his absence, he debated his NFL future. If he suffers another concussion, he seems to be thinking already about a potential retirement.
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Anthony Walker’s job could be in jeopardy. He played many more snaps than rookie Bobby Okereke, but the latter is definitely breathing down his neck.
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Walker graded as an average linebacker with the number 42 spot out of 89 players. His grade took a huge hit because of poor run defense.
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Meanwhile, the rookie from Stanford obtained the 9th-highest grade in the league! He was an every-down linebacker in college, and is very likely to get an increase workload in 2020.
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3.4 Cornerbacks (CBs)
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Rock Ya-Sin enjoyed a satisfying rookie season. He is an interesting story. After playing three years at a Divison-2 college, he transferred to Temple for his final year. Despite not being particularly fast, his sheer will helped him earn amazing grades. He yielded a meager 53% completion rate and not a single one went above 20 yards. He finished as an average corner in 2019; with one full year of experience under his belt, he is likely to improve this season.
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Pierre Desir obtained the second-highest playing time among the team’s cornerbacks. He took a step back after a breakout 2018 campaign and the team decided to release him. The Jets signed him the next day.
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It remains to be seen which player will benefit the most from Desir’s departure. The Colts acquired T.J. Carrie and Xavier Rhodes, formerly of the Browns and the Vikings, respectively. Both of them are coming off a very disappointing season.
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Rhodes used to be a pretty solid corner, but his play has deteriorated a lot recently. After receiving 73.8 and 72.4 grades from PFF in 2016 and 2017, he earned a disappointing 58.2 mark in 2018 and a dreadful 47.9 last year. Did injuries slow him down, or is he done?
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Carrie was pretty ineffective with the Browns last year. After a few fairly good seasons with the Raiders, his play took a dip in each of his two years in Cleveland. I don’t have much faith he can rebound.
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Don’t count out Kenny Moore though. He was surprisingly good in the slot last year. We’ll see if he can solidify a starting spot in this now crowded secondary.
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3.5 Safeties (S)
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Malik Hooker and Khari Willis finished the 2019 season with an identical PFF grade: 69.5. That mark put them in the number 37 spot out of 87 safeties.
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Hooker is a former first-round pick out of Ohio State that has picked off at least two passes in each of its first three years as a pro. He has done a fine job and is still very young.
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The Colts traded up to select Willis in the 4th round of the 2019 draft. His first season exceeded expectations as he shared time with Clayton Geathers, who has yet to sign a contract.
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2020 VS 2019 DEFENSE
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Will the 2020 defense be superior to the 2019 unit?
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I love the fortification on the interior of the line with the big-time acquisition of DeForest Buckner, and to a lesser level Sheldon Day.
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The CB position may also see an upgrade with Ya-Sin’s sophomore season coming up and the additions of Rhodes and Carrie (with the hopes that one of them will bounce back after a frustrating 2019 season).
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At safety, Hooker and Hillis could also elevate their play because of their young age and added experience.
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However, as a whole I see a downgrade in the edge / linebacking corps. Justin Houston is not getting any younger, and Jabaal Sheard could be missed. The team must also cross its fingers that Darius Leonard won’t suffer another concussion.
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Overall, I see a small upgrade here. Adding Buckner coupled with young talented guys like Leonard, Ya-Sin and Hooker makes me predict they will finish around the 12th-15th place in terms of points allowed (as opposed to 18th last year).
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Final call (2020 vs 2019): Small upgrade
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4. Regular Season Wins

According to sportsbooks, the Colts are expected to win 8.5 games this season. Should we bet the “over” or the “under”?
​
Here is the methodology I used in order to answer this vital question:

• Use BetOnline.ag’s point spreads on all 256 regular season games.
• Convert those point spreads into win probabilities.
• Simulate each of the 256 games, according to those win probabilities, via the R statistical software.
• Repeat the previous step one million times (you get 1M simulated seasons).
• Count the proportion of seasons where the Colts won more or less than 8.5 games.

​
Here are the results:
​

	Estimated Probability	Sportsbook	Odds	ROI
OVER 8.5 WINS	66.9%	DraftKings	-143	+13.7%
UNDER 8.5 WINS	33.1%	Sports Interaction	+180	-7.3%

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Tip: Bet OVER 8.5 wins
Return On Investment (ROI): +13.7%
Rank: 20th-highest ROI out of 32 teams
Minimum odds required to bet (i.e. ROI = 0%): -202
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Here are BetOnline’s point spreads for the Colts’ 16 regular season games:

• HOME: +2.5 vs BAL, -9 vs CIN, -2.5 vs GB, -4.5 vs HOU, -10.5 vs JAX, -2 vs MIN, -6.5 vs NYJ, -3 vs TEN.
• ROAD: +1.5 @ CHI, +1 @ CLE, -1.5 @ DET, +2 @ HOU, -6.5 @ JAX, -2 @ LV, +2.5 @ PIT, +2.5 @ TEN.

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Note: The “Best odds” from the table above were obtained after looking at 13 well-known online sportsbooks on May 18th, 2020.
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Woohoo! You made it through the whole article, thanks for reading my friend! Tomorrow, we'll talk about the Philadelphia Eagles!
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Professor MJ