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Official r/NFL Week 14 Power Rankings

Welcome to the week 14 Official NFL Power Rankings! With circus catches and beatdowns alongside great games, there was plenty to discuss even before a MNF Scorigami that might already be airing on ESPN classic. 32/32 Reporting
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Chiefs -- 12-1 The Dolphins gave the Chiefs all they could handle in the first quarter of Sunday's game, but the Chiefs once again proved that when they are focused, they are the most dangerous team in the NFL. Travis Kelce, the NFL's leading receiver currently, had another monster game showing why he's a future hall of famer. However, after having five 10+ point wins in the first eight weeks of the season, the Chiefs last five wins have all been won by one score. Will this trend ultimately matter come playoff time? It's hard to argue with results, as the Chiefs 12-1 record is the best record through 13 games in franchise history. The ultimate barometer for the Chiefs is this week as they travel to play the Saints, hopefully with Drew Brees. Many questions will be answered in this clash of two top five teams.
2. Packers +2 10-3 There always seems to be one Lions-Packer game a year that ends up being some kind of adventure. Rodgers and Adams were as good as ever but the Lions kept on lingering throughout the game. Mason "Silver Fox" Crosby nailed an insurance 58 yard field goal with 3:30 to play and made a touchdown-saving tackle on the immediate kickoff. Aside from Crosby, the special teams really leave a lot to be desired, especially after the hands team almost allowed a onside kick recovery (c'mon y'all I don't need Bostic flashbacks). Packers officially won the division game and are now the projected 1 seed, which is pretty neat ngl. Onto a Saturday game I guess?
3. Bills +2 10-3 For a team that was searching desperately in 2019 for a signature win, the 2020 Bills have found them everywhere they turn. This team has had one of the toughest schedules in the league, but except for a couple games they've shown up every time they've had to. This is the second-best team in the conference. The Bills bandwagons are circling now. Josh Allen's extending his baseball glove-sized hand. He says "get in nerds, we're goin' to the Super Bowl."
4. Saints -1 10-3 This loss = Hurts. Dennis Allen seemingly had no answers for the rookie QB and then Miles Sanders piled on as well. "All the things we didn't want to allow happen, happened in that game." This was Sean Payton's post-game assessment and it's fair. Taysom Hill had an acceptable statline but it hides how sloppy he looked on the field. The defense struggled with its assignment to contain Hurts and keep him from getting outside the pocket - a worrying sign considering the next QB on the schedule.
5. Steelers -3 11-2 The Steelers schedule has been insane. 6 days between NYG and DEN. 14 days between HOU and PHI. 10 days between JAX and BAL. But with that BAL game, the Steelers played them, WFT and BUF in 12 days. 3 games in 12 days. The team is out of LBs and OL. This has been a challenging season for everyone, but this is unprecedented. The Steelers have 8 days until CIN, then 6 days until IND. 10 out of 16 games played with an irregular schedule? You can argue the drops are kicking their ass, but this schedule has been brutal. No wonder they've lost 2 straight.
6. Rams -- 9-4 Imagine only scoring 3 points in a game.
7. Colts +1 9-4 Kenny Moore is a player underrated by national media but massively valuable to the Colts. GM Chris Ballard made re-signing him a priority after his breakout 2018 season. Moore has been a reliable performer throughout his tenure as a Colt and added an exclamation point with his insane one-handed interception on Sunday.
8. Titans +1 9-4 Derrick Henry had his second 200+ yard 2 TD game against the Jaguars on Sunday. The performance made Henry the 7th player to rush for 1,500+ yards and 14+ TDs through 13 games.
9. Seahawks +1 9-4 Nothing cures suicidal thoughts losing like playing the Jets, baby. Sunday was never much of a game, as it was all Seahawks all day. Russell Wilson threw for 4 touchdowns, Jamal Adams broke the single season sack record for defensive backs, and Geno Smith got to play a full quarter against the team that drafted him. What a way to get over a bad loss to the Giants. Up next the Seahawks will take on their final NFC East opponent of the season; Football Team.
10. Ravens +2 8-5 This ranker is a brown man, writing about how Lamar Jackson lost 20 pounds dropping some brown, dropping a TD to Brown, to go ahead against the Browns. They go for two. So in response, K-hunt ties the game, 42-42. In response, the Llama sets up the GOAT to nail a 54-yarder, 16th game winner of his career! To say nothing else of the game -- 9 total fucking rushing touchdowns, tying a record held since two defunct teams played each other before anyone on reddit was born... and Jackson runs for a MNF QB record 124 yards -- but still gets all the clutch plays done with his arm, with this middling group of receivers. The even greater news amidst all this is that the schedule doesn't look so bad in the closing stretch, and inspired play like this past Monday from the offense will ease the burden of the Ravens' gradually depleting secondary. Best wishes to Trace McSorely who made an extremely commendable effort to set them up for Lamar's return.
11. Browns -4 9-4 Did you bet the over? The Browns and Ravens combined for 89 points in an absolute rollercoaster of a game. While they did not win, the Browns have shown they are contenders. With two games to go a real shot at the playoffs is on the table. The Browns will face the Giants in another prime time game.
12. Buccaneers -1 8-5 The Buccaneers pulled off a 26-14 win over the Vikings, bringing their playoff chances to 94%. Vikes kicker Dan Bailey channeled his inner Gary Anderson to win the Bucs' game ball on an 0/3 kicking performance with an additional missed XP. Rookie Antoine Winfield Jr. played a disruptive game against his dad's former team and is looking like he has the potential to be one of the league's next great safeties. With only interim coaches to close out the remaining three games of the season, the Bucs should have smooth sailing into the Wild Card round.
13. Dolphins -- 8-5 There are no consolation prizes in the NFL, but a single score loss to the best team in the league while the backup waterboy is lining up in the slot is about as close to a one as you'll ever get. While he was able to pull off the win, even Patrick Mahomes couldn't keep this ball-hawking defense from getting a hold of the ball, often. And at some point, if people don't start talking about Xavien Howard in the DPOY conversation, he's just going to go intercept the damned award himself. Hopefully, the long, long list of injured Dolphins get well soon.
14. Cardinals +1 7-6 A monster day from Haason Reddick and the defense finally put the Cardinals back on the winning track. Breaking a franchise record with 5 sacks was one thing, but getting all the turnovers was huge. Hopefully the offense feeds off of it and has a good week in preparing for a big game with Philly that has huge playoff implications. It will take a complete team effort to beat Philly with Jalen Hurts starting fresh of a win against the Saints.
15. Raiders -1 7-6 The Raiders looked really bad against the Colts, just like they have for the better part of the last 6 weeks. Luckily Gruden finally made the call to fire Pauly G, something fans have been calling for for the past 2 seasons. Only time will tell if it's too little, too late. Every game from here on out is a must win if the Raiders want to make the playoffs.
16. Washington FT +3 6-7 Washington is finding ways to win instead of finding ways to lose. The offense was not able to score a TD so the defense went ahead and spotted them 14 points. Chase Young notches his first TD and continues to prove his worth as the 2nd overall pick as a game wrecker.
17. Vikings -- 6-7 Dalvin Cook became the first back to rush for over 100 yards against the Bucs in over 20 games, but the Vikings were unable to convert long drives into points as Dan Bailey went 0/4 on field goals and extra points. Couple that with some questionable officiating, the Vikings' banged up front seven generating zero pressure on Tom Brady and plenty of self-inflicted wounds and it all adds up to a real tough loss that knocks the Vikings down from wild card favorites to playoff long shots.
18. Bears +5 6-7 The Bears finally snapped their six-game losing streak by rolling over the Texans without much difficulty. Trubisky attempted one throw longer than 20 yards.
19. Patriots -3 6-7 Los Angeles, is a land of contrasts - In a span of four days the Patriots' hopes for a postseason were revived and then unceremoniously squashed. Run Defense, Offensive Line, Cam and the Receivers, There just are too many holes to cover up with week to week coaching, this team needs some reworking over the offseason. The Pats end the season with the division as always, lets hope to fuck someone’s season or seeding up. And also the Jets.
20. 49ers -2 5-8 The 49ers defense did their job, holding the Washington offense to a total of 9 points, but the offense had two takeaways brought back for touchdowns and could not recover. The team looks to right the ship this week against the Cowboys.
21. Broncos +5 5-8 Drew Lock put up the third-highest passer rating in team history — behind a couple guys you may know. In the battle of 4-8's, the Broncos somehow managed to not blow a sizeable fourth-quarter lead and emerge victorious. Winning the game but losing The Hunt for a Better Draft Pick. Will the team remain in purgatory? Stay tuned.
22. Giants -2 5-8 It’s a real joy to watch the rest of the teams in the up-for-grabs NFC East secure wins, with one being against a top-5 team, all while watching your team play so poorly they start setting franchise records. At least we can say the hype was fun while it lasted, right?
23. Falcons -1 4-9 Outplayed by a team whose most impressive win is a tossup between the Bengals, Jaguars, and Jets? Check. Outcoached by special teams ace Anthony Lynn? Check. Ten point lead blown, two interceptions with under five minutes left, double check. Good thing age is just a number for the 32nd youngest team in the league.
24. Panthers -3 4-9 I'm not sure where the Panthers go from here. Coach Rhule has said that he isn't going to do the team and fans a disservice by beginning to evaluate players, which means that we're going to see more of Teddy Bridgewater (who is 0-7 in one score games this season) crumble at the end of the game. Playing at Lambeau in primetime in December is one of the hardest things a team can do, and it's not going to be an easy test for the Panthers, who so far have shown that they can't win close games, nor can they defend the pass (23rd in passing defense). It's going to be tough sledding, but hopefully Jeremy Chinn can continue his torrid pace and run his way into DROY.
25. Eagles +3 4-8-1 Jalen Hurts delivered the spark the Eagles needed to upset the Saints and spread 'quarterback controversy' all over the city of brotherly love. While the season remains a disappointment, the dual running threat of Hurts and Sanders could be interesting to watch going forward, and the NFC Least remains wide-open with 2 divisional games left on the 2020 menu.
26. Lions -1 5-8 Even with a loss, Interim HC Darrell Bevell showed that his Lions are here to compete. This game was never out of hands, and the Lions kept it close the entire time. There are still plenty of woes on Defense, but the Offense continued to ball out as expected. With two TD's coming from the run game (Swift and Kerryon), there is already something to look forward to next year. Lately the team has been able to trust the run on short yardage and redzone carries and it has helped the team with consistency in the red zone. Unfortunately, Aaron Rodgers is a QB that can carve up a weak secondary... so that didn't go great. There's around a 1% chance of the Lions getting a playoff spot, not unheard of, but it'll be tough if Stafford's injury progresses and we lose him for the season. #DefendTheDen
27. Chargers -- 4-9 First of all, props to Falcons Twitter for this gem before the game, and it played out exactly as expected. Both teams did their best to try giving it away at the end, but the Chargers ended up on the winning side this time around. The Chargers had their hiccups again but there were improvements across the board; Justin Herbert's 81.8% completion percentage is his highest of the season, the defense came away with 3 INTs, and special teams probably had their best day. The Chargers get a short week before a Thursday Night tilt in Las Vegas.
28. Texans -4 4-9 The Texans are lucky that Paxton is the Texas AG, otherwise they would have had the biggest blowout loss in the state this past week.
29. Cowboys -- 4-9 The Red Rifle won his revenge game, the defense forced multiple turnovers, and the Bengals were held to 3.4 yards per carry. All that, and the Cowboys still come out of the week with a top 5 draft pick. Honestly, Sunday couldn't have gone better. Now, the only question is whether this was the team turning the corner and the beginning of a strong finish to the season, or this was just a perfect moment of the Cowboys finding a shittier team with serious injuries issues and just doing what should happen in that scenario.
30. Bengals -- 2-10-1 Giovani Bernard hadn't fumbled since 2013 before his 1st quarter fumble on Sunday. So what does he get for his troubles? A spot on the bench thanks to Zac Taylor. Giovani was one of the only veterans who spoke out in behalf of Taylor and the current coaches when multiple articles were released with "sources" saying that Taylor had lost the locker room last month. You have to question the benching for multiple reasons as the directionless Bengals continue to flounder to blowout losses. Just another reason why this should be Zac Taylor's last season as head coach in Cincinnati.
31. Jaguars -- 1-12 This one felt more as expected. Perhaps it was in former GM Dave Caldwell's plans— no, wait, hear me out. Adjusting tinfoil hat; Based on the moves taken this offseason to seemingly dump talent from the Jaguars in attempt to amass more draft picks, perhaps the former front office of the Jaguars were banking on this season not being played, due to pandemic reasons. Sure, this may sound farfetched, but I'd like to hear a more reasonable explanation for fielding such a disaster as this team, this season.
32. Jets -- 0-13 The Jets have now scored on 7 consecutive opening drives, the longest streak in the NFL. After climbing to an early 3-0 lead, I watched Peter Sawkins make an excellent cranachan custard slice on The Great British Bake Off.
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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 17 Analysis and Picks (Last week of regular season!!!😀 )

Weeks 15 and16 Recap: Hello! I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas and New Year! The stats in the recap are just of week 15. I did not make a post or any plays on week 16, as I was busy playing an online poker tournament, here in New Jersey. My apologies for slowing down a bit this year, it has been rather busy here. We have one more week to get it in before PLAYOFFS?!., Lets see what value we can find.
Singles (4-4 -1.03u)
Parlays (0u) All Free Bets
Teasers (1-0 +8u)
BBDLS (0-5 -2.7u)
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Sunday Games
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Dallas at New York Giants: Potentially a huge game for either one of these teams. Whichever of these teams wins gets to sweat the Eagles/Washington game and pray for an Eagles win. Dallas has been playing well over the last quarter of the season holding opponents to 24, and their offense has been clicking averaging over 30ppg over that span. Even with the defensive improvement, they are still one of the worst defenses in the league. New York on the other hand has a top 10 defense. It has been doing a fantastic job this year, struggling a bit over the last two weeks but overall is still one of the better defenses in the NFL. Their offense scores a pedestrianly average of 17 ppg but on the bright side seems to have figured out their turnover problem with Daniel Jones. Taking into account full season stats, the algo has this as NY -2. Taking into account only the last 4 games the algo has this as DAL -4.5. The bets the algo favors the most are teasing either team +6.5 or more. It predicts the highest likely game script includes mostly low scoring games due to it being a divisional rematch to end the season and potentially get in the playoffs.
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Pittsburgh at Cleveland: A very important game for Cleveland, not so much for Pittsburgh. Cleveland needs the win to guarantee a playoff birth, while PIT has already punched their ticket. In fact, PIT will be resting Big Ben, in order to have him at his freshest for a playoff run. Cleveland will be returning most of the players that were out due to Covid vs. the Jets. They will still be missing 2 LB and 2 Safetys, but the majority of the key offensive players have returned. For Pittsburgh they will see Mason Rudolph step in at QB, the last team he faced the Browns, him and Myles Garret got into a fight that saw Garret swing a helmet on an unprotected head of Rudolph. The algo loves Cleveland to come in and take care of business, however it only likes a spread of -7/8. It was 4.5 with Big Ben but with the news of him out, it adjusts about a field goal.
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New York Jets at New England: Boy oh boy, what a dumpster fire we have here. Both teams out of playoff contention, and both seeing some of their worst lows. (Although the Jets are more used to this at the end of the season) Jets have had some recent success, winning their first two games and beating two pretty good teams in the process. Now they go for three in a row to close out the season vs the struggling offensively, New England Patriots. They will be sitting Cam Newton and starting Stidham this week. He has looked even worse than Cam, so I don't really know what we can expect out of their offense this week. The algo leans about as close to a pickem as the computer can produce so you can imagine with the Jets catching points and odds on the moneyline, we will be looking their way.
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Minnesota at Detroit: This game is currently on my dog or avoid list. There is to much uncertainty with the Lions QB and who is starting. All we do know is that Dalvin Cook for the Vikings is not going to be playing this game due to a death in the family. With the missing key offensive player and the unknown with Covid who the starters will be, this game is an avoid. (Possibly find value with the dog if Stafford is announced playing right before game time)
With two mediocre defenses (The Lions just giving up) this could be a good game for a same game parlays on some props. Jefferson and Thielen are both close to breaking records. Cook is out so backup RB should get more touches...
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Atlanta at Tampa Bay: This is a tricky one for me. The algo loves TB to take care of business at home and favors them by 6. However, I personally am weary of both this and the Saints game as neither team NEEDs a win and only the Saints can positively change their playoff seating with a win *(and a GB loss). I think it is possible and highly favorable for both teams to rest their key starters in order to give them a makeshift bye week. Because of that, I will mostly stay away from this game and the Saints game.
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Baltimore at Cincinnati: A divisional game that is a "Win and you're in" game for Baltimore. They will be taking on the Bengals, that have actually looked great in their last few games. However, the algo does heavily favor the Raven's to get it done on the road to close out the season. It does think that two TDs might be a bit much though. Because of that I lean Baltimore winning and clinching a playoff birth, but will either look Cincy on the points or stay away from the spread.
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Miami at Buffalo: A VERY important game for Miami. Win, and you're in. Lose, and most likely the Colts are in. Fitzmagic came in in the last 3 mins and gave them the win and this opportunity, however he is out with Covid this game so no Magic to be had. It will be down to Tua vs. whoever Buffalo decides to play. Personally I think the value is on Miami. Who knows who and how long the Buffalo starters will play, given they are already in the Playoffs. But, it would be sweet for them to keep a divisional rival out of the post season. My algo likes Buffalo, but my gut says Miami.
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Jacksonville at Indianapolis: I shouldn't have to talk about this game. Indy knows they need a win and help, and Jacksonville already STUNNED INDY to open the season. It should be a confident grind of a win...but Rivers feeling defeated and needing help to make the post season, this might be a trap game.
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Green Bay at Chicago: Ugh, such a hard game. My algo has GB as -3.5 Favorites (6.5 if they were at home) I think the loss of one of GBs key O-line might have a greater effect on them than one of their star offensive scorers. Rodgers is one of the best when given time, but take that time from him and he starts to crumble. Chicago has been playing as well as they could hope for down the stretch. They need a win or a loss and some help to be in.
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Tennessee at Houston: Henry needs like 223 yards to reach the 2000 yard club. Houston is one of the worst teams in the league at stopping the run? Seems like a recipe for some TEN running and a play action pass or two for some big chunks. EZ$ Tenn
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New Orleans at Carolina: The had NO as -6.5 here, but the loss of Kamara has to be worth at least 3 points right now given NO is already a little shorthanded without Thomas. Carolina has been one of those teams that just hasn't quit. They keep playing and will probably be a good team to bet on next year as they develop. Personally, a divisional game where NO doesn't improve their playoff standings with a win (unless GB loses to CHI) might be a recipe for CAR to have some easy shots at covering, backdoor covering, and maybe just winning outright. Like most of the teams with their ticket punched, there is a good chance they rest starters in the second half just to preserve the health of key players.
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Seattle at San Francisco: Except for the loss to the Giants, Seattle has been on fire in the second half. Their offense hasn't had the firepower it started the season with, but it seems to be adding some more short passing into its game and finding a better balance. While the defense seems to be clicking on on cylinders. They have given up 17 or less in their last 5. As for San Fran: " Shanahan said he doesn't expect Garoppolo (ankle) to return this week. Wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk (ankle) and Deebo Samuel (hamstring), left tackle Trent Williams (elbow), defensive end Jordan Willis (ankle) and cornerback Richard Sherman (calf) have already been ruled out. Kicker Robbie Gould was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list"
I think this is the best odds you are going to get on SEA winning the whole thing. I gave this play out to my premium subscribers a few weeks ago, but I like (and bet) SEA having the best odds/price to make it out of the NFC. If by some lucky chance GB and NO lose today, SEA can still get the number one seed and a first round bye. They are currently +1200 to win it all and have (in my algo's opinion) the best QB in the NFC right now.
🤑🤑🤑 GO GET THAT MONEY 🤑🤑🤑
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Las Vegas at Denver: This is one of my throwaway games. My algo has this as LV -2, however both teams are out of the playoffs and this game leaves the door open for anyone to flop, or try their heart out. Personally I love Derrick Carr and I think the Raiders are primed to make a deep playoff run next given a few additions to defense.
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Arizona at LA Rams: Hmmmm... Kyler Murray is playing(hurtish) Arizona basically needs a win and in. Rams also need a win, but can still make it with a loss. Both teams should be playing their harderst, the biggest variable is going to be the Rams QB. Goff is hurt and will not play. Rams will be going with recently upgraded from the practice squad, Worford. He will be playing in his first NFL game, and I expect the Rams to lean very heavy on the run. Worford IS a mobile-ish QB, so it isn't out of the question for him to take the rams to a good low scoring, defensive win. If he can just make 4-5 good throws on key downs and NOT turn the ball over, I think the Rams come out on top. But if he can't handle the NFL speed and commits even one turnover, then AZ becomes the favorite to win.
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Washington at Philadelphia: Last game of the night! Flexed here because it has massive implications in the NFC East. If Washington wins, they win the NFC East and make the playoffs as the 4 seed. If Philly wins, then the winner of the Dallas/NYG game will be the winner of the NFC East. Washington let go of their rookie QB and Alex Smith will start with a "hurt" calf. Philly has 9 players on the injury report and is expected to reach deep into their reserves to field players for this one. My algo slightly favors Washington to win, but given 3-5 points at home, on primetime, I lean heavy Philly.
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Singles (91-116-1, -30.11u)
Parlays (6-30, +33.96u)
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Teasers (4-4, +34.6u)
BBDLS (0-66, -50.24u)
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Futures plays:
Seattle to win the NFC (100u to win 600u)
Seattle to win the Super Bowl (83.33u to win 1000u)
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Thank you everyone for reading. Good luck to all!!
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

r/NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season - #20-11

Welcome to the reveal for players ranked 20-11 for this year’s NFL Top 100 Players for the 2019 Season!

Players whose average rank had them land in places 20-11 are on this portion of the list revealed today. Players are associated with the team they finished 2019 with.
Below you will see write-ups from rankers summarizing the players' 2019 season and why they were among the best in 2019. Stats for each player are from this season and are included below. Additionally, their previous ranks in this long running series are also available for all of you.
Methodology
LINK TO THE HUB POST WITH A MORE DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE METHODOLOGY
  1. A CALL FOR RANKERS just after the Super Bowl.
  2. Rankers for each team nominated players to rank. 10 Games Played Minimum Threshold. Players are associated with the team they finished the 2019 Season with.
  3. The Grind. Utilize ranking threads for individual rankers broken up by positional group. Users were tasked with ranking players within the following tiers based on their evaluation: T-25, T-50, T-100, T-125 based on 2019 regular season only. There were no individual case threads. There were no arbitrary position limit caps. Just questions and rankings.
  4. Users submitted their individual Top 125 list. Ranking out to 125 is new for this year.
  5. User lists were reviewed for outliers by me with assistance from two former rankers. Users were permitted to correct any mistakes found. Once complete, lists were locked.
  6. Reveal the list… right now.
So now, without further ado, here are the players ranked 20-11 in the NFL Top 100 Players of the 2019 Season!

#20 - Danielle Hunter - EDGE - Minnesota Vikings

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R N/R 32
Written By: uggsandstarbux
Khalil Mack. Von Miller. JJ Watt. Those are the names that come up when you mention edge players in the NFL over the last half a decade. Yet none have as many sacks as Danielle Hunter in the last two years. Hunter is continually passed over in the conversation of edge rushers. Even among young edge rushers like the Bosa brothers, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, and Bradley Chubb, Hunter is forgotten. He only received 4 All Pro votes from AP (of a possible 50). He failed to make PFF’s All Pro team. Is it because he wasn’t a 1st round pick? Is it because the Vikings defense was already dominant before his arrival?
Hunter has improved every year he’s gotten into the league (88 pressures this year vs 67 last year vs 55 in 2016). His first couple years in the league, he rotated in behind Everson Griffen and Brian Robinson. Yet he holds the record for most sacks before his 25th birthday and was one of only a handful of players in 2019 with double digit sacks and 15+ TFLs last season. He earned an 89.0 overall grade from PFF and forced 3 fumbles this year.
Beyond the numbers, Hunter is a unit. He came out of LSU as one of the more raw pass rushers in his draft. However, under the tutelage of the mighty Andre Patterson, Hunter has become one of the most athletic, versatile, technical, dominant edge defenders in the game. He can beat you with a pure bull rush, but he can also beat you with his speed and agility. He’s picked up Everson Griffen’s deadly spin move and has the motor to work through double teams. He can win with an inside move, or he can play pure 3T for an entire game (a la vs NO). He’s got a great understanding of the game and is a force to be reckoned with. If you’re placing bets for DPOY in 2020, don’t waste your money on the big name guys like Aaron Donald (+750) or Khalil Mack (+1100). Don’t spend it on young up and comers, lke Nick Bosa (+1300) or TJ Watt (+1500) either. Place it on Danielle Hunter (+2300). He’s going to continue dominating as he gains more recognition and climbs toward stardom.

#19 - Chris Godwin - Wide Receiver - Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R
Written By: MysticTyph00n
At the beginning of the 2019 NFL season Bruce Arians said:
"I think Chris Godwin is going to be close to a 100-catch guy, especially because I think he can play in the slot,"...."He's never coming off the field."
Bucs fans thought this could be very well true in BA's system, especially with the departure of Desean Jackson which only really left Mike Evans as the only other real target on the team.
The 3rd round pick from Penn State showed up big time this year after having two relatively quiet seasons. Through 13.5 games (missing the final 2.5 due to a hamstring injury) he amassed 86 receptions for 1,333 yards, 9 TDs and only one drop(In fact he's only had 2 drops total in 2018 & 2019)He very well could have gone over 100 receptions , 1,500 yards as well as double digit TDs, but that's just projecting right?
According to PFF he was an absolute monster in the slot with an outstanding 96.5 grade, which shows he can line up anywhere on the field and still produce big time for the Buccaneers.
In 2020, I honestly expect Chris Godwin to have close to the same production, and possibly even better with how much he produces from the slot.
Please don't leave us…

#18 - Quenton Nelson - Offensive Guard - Indianapolis Colts

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 70
Written By: Zzyzx8
Selecting a guard 6th overall was a bold movie for second year GM Chris Ballard, even one as highly touted as Quenton Nelson. Casual fans hated it, while draft junkies loved it. Two years later, it’s become clear that the pick was a home run. Nelson’s selection single handedly turned around a unit that was largely responsible for a slew of injuries to Andrew Luck into one of the best units. Nelson’s second year was only better, cementing himself as one of the best guards in the league, a true road grader. He spent the past year terrorizing nfl defensive lineman en route to his second pro bowl and all pro selections. Plus, he pulled off what was by far the best touchdown celebration of the season

#17 - Jamal Adams - Strong Safety - New York Jets

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R 18
Written By: the_fuzzy_stoner robdog1330
I would just like to start with a moment of silence for the fans of the New York Jets after Jamal Adams recently demanded a trade from that inept organization with a dumpster fire of a coach in Adam Gase.
Anyways, after an incredible sophomore season, Adams has kept up with his awesome play in his third season as one of the NFL's best and most versatile defensive players as well as the clear-cut best player on a football team that somehow won seven games. Adams, also known as President 'Mal, recorded an interception (which was returned 61 yards to the house), 7 passes defended, 11 hurries, and 36 stops, but that's not all! Adams also garnered 6.5 sacks (which is amazing for a DB) and forced two fumbles (like this one he returned to the house on my guy Daniel Jones 😔). With his exceptional play, the star safety was named to the 1st Team All-Pro as well as his second Pro Bowl selection (an honor which none of his other Jets teammates got this year).
What makes Adams so special is that he is exceptional against both the running and passing game. Whether he's with Gang Green or another franchise next year, I'd expect another stellar season out of Jamal Adams in 2020 (assuming there is one) and even as a Giants fan who watched him dominate my team this past season, I really appreciate the guy's play.

#16 - Derrick Henry - Running Back - Tennessee Titans

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R N/R
Written By: broccolibush42
DERRRRIIIICK HENRY!!!
This part man part tractor was the plow that turned our barren field into a bountiful wheat field full of Nashville Hot Chicken. This beautiful muscly man with a poop rat tail decimated opponents and General Sherman'd the AFC South. Totaling at 1540 yards and 16 Touchdowns in 15 games, with 6 coming from a slow start in a Mariota lead offense, he caught fire and dragged his nuts all over teams like the Chargers, Chiefs, Jags, Colts, Texans, Raiders and was showing just absolute dominance on the field. (Sadly we arent able to take the playoffs into account otherwise i'd gush over how he embarrassed a couple of scrub one and done teams).
Henry has this certain tenacity and a godlike level of endurance that just makes him an absolute beast in the 2nd half. He is just able to keep going, and going, and going, until finally, players get tired of it and turn into lead blockers for him. He is extremely hard to tackle to. Take a look at this play against the Chiefs in week 10, guys just bounce off him like he's running through toddlers. Derrick Henry is so hard to tackle that, according to PFF, Henry had over 1200 of his 1540 total yards after contact. Like this dude was getting hit at the line of scrimmage and he is just like, fuck this shit, i aint no dion lewis, and keeps going. How is this guy even real???
Another thing about Henry is his speed! Henry is a 6'3" 240 pound dude running 20+ MPH down the field when he breaks the open one. Like look at this speed he gets vs the Browns in week 1. Or this one against the Jags where he outruns guys and stiff arms the ones who barely managed to keep pace. Speaking of stiff arms, Derrick Henry has one of, if not, the BEST Stiff Arm in the league. If I had to pick a way to die, I think I would like Henry to stiff arm me in the face running at me at 21 miles per hour with this face, because there would be no greater honor to a titans fan than death by Henry. That concludes my Henry jerk fest. Here are some more highlights. and here are the real link.

#15 - Travis Kelce - Tight End - Kansas City Chiefs

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/R 84 N/R 28 31 13
Written By: DTSportsNow
Travis Kelce was drafted in the 3rd round of the 2013 draft. He wound up missing his rookie season due needing to receive microfracture surgery on his knee over the offseason and dealing with a bone bruise during the season. Since then he's received 4 All-Pro designations and was named to the NFL 2010s All-Decade team. He's also become the 1st TE in NFL history to have 4 straight 1,000+ yard seasons. Not bad considering how his career got started.
In 2019 he finished his 2nd straight season of 1,200+ yards and 3rd straight season leading the league in deep receiving yards by a tight end (274). He finished top 4 in overall TE grade for the 4th straight year (85.1), and was named to his second 2nd-team All-Pro designation. In the Sunday Night Football contest against the Chicago Bears he caught his 500th career reception, becoming the fastest TE in NFL history to reach that mark.
There's no doubt that Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the game, and winding up in the top 20 proves many believe him to be one of the very best players in the league. Since Gronk's decline it's essentially been between him and George Kittle for the top player at the position. He's a key component of what Andy Reid and the Chiefs like to do on offense, even as stacked as the offence is. With a Super Bowl victory and a few records to his name already his legacy will be decided by how long he can keep up his premier play. His partnership with Patrick Mahomes should take him to a locked up Hall of Fame bust.

#14 - Ryan Ramczyk - Offensive Tackle - New Orleans Saints

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 100 74
Written By: Dahki
In 2017, sb nation wrote an article claiming that Ryan Ramczyk wasn't a first round talent at LT. The site went so far as to say he would benefit from a switch to RT. In short, they ended up nailing that on the head. The three-year vet has spent almost the entirety of his career anchoring the right side of the Saints O-line after being picked at 32 overall, and boy, has it worked out for both the team and the Wisconsin alum.
Ram makes the /nfl top 100 list for two reasons. First, he was really good. Second, we really wanted to hammer in the idea that the Saints O-line as a whole was really good. Most notably, Ram exits the 2019 season with his first first-team all pro, and he was more than deserving of it. Similar to teammate Terron Armstead, Ram refused to allow Brees or Teddy to be touched, giving up no sacks on the season. Even better, Ram kept his QBs almost squeaky clean in the pocket, allowing just one hit on the entire season, good for 2nd best in the league among nominated tackles. And Ram didn't just do well in pass pro; he was PFFs top graded OT when run-blocking, showcasing his power and quickness from his spot. In total, Ram spent the 2019 season as the biggest challenge for opposing D-lines to overcome when facing the Saints.

#13 - Julio Jones - Wide Receiver - Atlanta Falcons

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
32 93 23 8 2 21 17
Written By: CokeZ3ro
It's a bird, it’s a plane, no it's Jet Jones! In his 9th season Julio continues to be one of the most dominant receivers in the NFL, and the undisputed best player on the team. He’s a force that defenses must give their full attention, and even then he can explode. Even when he doesn’t get the ball, his influence and abilities still shape the play, and better everyone around him. This past offseason Julio agreed to a three-year contract extension worth $66 million, making him the NFL’s highest paid WR, and extending him to 2023. Even though 2019 was a down year statistically, Julio continued to show why the money is worth it. In a “down year” Julio was 2nd in reception yards, 3rd in Yards/Game, and 1st in Scrimmage Yards/Touch, and made his 6th consecutive Pro-Bowl.
But stats can hardly capture the elite combination of athleticism and skill that makes Julio so great. A combination perfectly captured here where Julio is able to jump over the coverage of CB Leodis McKelvin and then tiptoe to complete the coverage on the way down. Later that same game, with the Falcons against the wall, Julio showed that no man can catch him in a 53-yard burst (shoutout to Jake Matthews for the Pancake Block). Julio utilized his route skills to make CB Pierre Desir eat turf before making a 34-yard reception; which likely would have been much more if Ryan didn’t underthrow it. He’s pretty good at catching too, exhibited as reaches over CB Quincy Wilson and manages to hold onto the ball through tackles from Wilson and SS Clayton Geathers to score. Doesn’t matter who you are, Luke Keuchly, Marshon Lattimore, AJ Bouye; doesn’t matter. bUt hE dOEsn’T gET tOUchDoWnS I hear the Fantasy owners say. Watch this and notice how often in the redzone Julio is serving to support his team (blocks, inside presence, taking double defenders), or is just ignored. He’s open more often people realize.
Even in a disappointing season for the Falcons, Julio continues to shine through as one of the NFL’s premiere combos of athleticism and skill. Julio is and will continue to be an absolute force for the offense.

#12 - Chandler Jones - EDGE - Arizona Cardinals

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/R N/R N/R N/R 60 24 100
Written By: Beehay
In my write up of ChanJo last year, I mentioned that the return to the 3/4 (even if it's under Vance Joseph) will be huge for his stats. And boy howdy was it! At 30 years old and after double digit sack totals for 5 straight years, Jones set a career high of sacks at 19 this year. He had 8 Forced Fumbles, 53 Tackles, and 26 QB hits. Most of his stats improved from 2018, some more drastically than others. His pass coverage marginally improved but why the hell would you really want him to cover guys? (Don't say it Niners fans, DON'T SAY IT)
Chandler Jones is the prototype for edge defenders. He is what all other Defensive Coordinators wish they had. Strong, fast, smart, consistent. Here's a guys opinion and a breakdown. Here's some highlights because not everybody watched all 16 Cardinals games last year and I don't blame them. I think he will rank even higher next year if he stays healthy because he will finally get to settle into a defense again. Even if it's Vance Joseph's.

#11 - Ronnie Stanley - Offensive Tackle - Baltimore Ravens

Previous Ranks
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/R N/R 97
Written By: Letsgomountaineers5
Where to begin with Ronnie Stanley? Oh, how about a nearly minute long clip of him absolutely bullying First Team All Pro and NFC DPOY Chandler Jones. You like that? (Sorry Cards fans, but hey we all know Chandler Jones is a beast). Ronnie Stanley was the best LT in the league. No wait, actually he was the best overall tackle in the league. Actually, Stanley was the best lineman in the league, bar none. I truly believe Stanley was a top 5 player in the NFL last season and even tried (and failed/came to senses) to argue Stanley as a top 2 player. His dominance on the left side of that line was unprecedented.
I know stats don’t paint the entire picture, especially for OL, but I have to start there because his stats were unworldly as a blindside protector facing the best pass rushers the NFL has to offer. Going against the likes of TJ Watt twice a year, Carlos Dunlap twice a year, Myles Garrett, Chandler Jones, Nick Bosa, Shaq Barrett (need I go on), he allowed zero sacks and six pressures on 445 pass blocking snaps. Of tackles with at least 400 pass blocking snaps to allow 6 pressures or less, he was the only one. Wait, the only one? Let’s expand. 10 pressures on 400 snaps? Hmm. Only Ronnie Stanley. 15? Hmm only Ronnie Stanley. 20 and no sacks? Only Ronnie Stanley. Unreal.
So how does he do it? Well for starters, he has an elite pass rusher’s explosion as an offensive lineman. He can pack a pop that will knock the best rushers off line or on their ass without overextending. Just ask Nick Bosa. Refer back to the Chandler Jones lowlight reel for a second and check out how often he simply beats Jones (one of the most explosive and best bending edge rushers in the game) to his spot time and time again. Stanley is out of his stance so fast it looks like he’s false starting and, be it film review/sixth sense/sheer athleticism (my money is on all three), he hits the pass rushers’ marks before they do. Sometimes, he even chips defenders to the ground he doesn’t have a responsibility for. Because of these reasons, he’s basically the only lineman in the game not playing catchup and is tremendously equipped to react to counters. In the run game, he was a driving reason behind that team’s record setting running success. He can be a mauler, but with his speed also can pull like the best guards in the game and lead block for some of the fastest players in the game.
At the end of the day, his dominance in both pass blocking and run blocking makes him a worthy top 15 player, and if not for a tendency to underrate linemen, I believe he should’ve been a shoe-in for the top 10. If you read this far, thank you. Now I need to go puke after that glowing endorsement for a Raven.

LINK TO 2019 POSITIONAL GROUPING TRACKER

LINK TO 2019 RANKER SHEETS

LINK TO HUB

Schedule Change

Unveiling of ranks 10-6 will take place Monday, July 6 instead of Tuesday. Unveiling of ranks 5-1 will take place on Thursday, July 9. Thank you!
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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 10 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks

Week 10 TNF Recap: Whelp! 🙃 The algo was spot on with loving the Colts. However, my adjustments took me off the IND -9.5 Alt line I was going to play and put me on the HT/FT. Unfortunately it took Indy an extra quarter to get their defense rolling and they had a few shitty calls against them in the 1H. However, I did like the Colts to crush so I took a live play when they were down in the first quarter that was able to mitigate our losses. Big week 10 coming up, lets check out the games!
Singles (1-3, -5.05u)
Parlays (u)
Teasers (u)
BBDLS (u)
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Sunday Games
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Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: I have skipped over this game all week. And now, Saturday night, I sit down to write and I still am unsure. My algo has PIT at -7.5. But, Big Ben and a few other have had to miss physical practices all week due to Corona protocols. Cincy is off a HUGE win over TEN (our algo was on that) however they just went into the bye. I would have rather taken them coming out of the bye off a loss. IDK, I think for now we say ride the dog or pass. There are many better spots today.
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Washington at Detroit: Garbage game of the week! Even though both of these teams have playoff chances... Washington is playing musical chairs with their QB over the last few weeks. This week it looks to be Alex Smith again. He looked relatively good vs the Giants last week. If it weren't for some poor WAS special teams play (that gave up 10 points to NY) That would have been a real game.
Detroit is coming off back to back losses giving up 41 and 34, and who knows what is going on there... Are they going to keep the Coach? Galloday? Stafford?! Also, Detroit may be without two starters on the offensive line this week... Detroit has been atrocious against the run this year. I would look at Washington utilizing their pass catching running backs in Gibson and JDM to control this game and take pressure off Smith having to do too much.
My algo has this game as a Pick-em so we are going to ride with the visitors. Another game worthy of a little sprinkle action 😎
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Houston at Cleveland: Here we have an AFC match up that CLE should be picking up if they want to be a playoff team. It is understandable for them to lose to the other playoff teams, but anyone with a losing record is a Must.
They will be facing a Texans team that last week came out of the bye and got their second win of the season... YAY! However, it was against the Jags...Starting a rookie QB...and they almost let the game go to OT after having an 11 point lead in the 4th....
Cleveland themselves is coming out of their bye and it appears to be the best time for them to have had it. They did lose the game going into the bye vs. the Raiders, however 100 mph winds and dropped passes seemed to be the game there. Now, coming out of the bye with 2 weeks of rest, they are returning two key starters on offense. #1 is the obvious Nick Chubb... and #2 is the Guard Wyatt Teller who was injured during the game vs. the Colts. Both look on track to return healthy and take on a Texans defense that is dead-last in the NFL against the run this season, allowing a whopping 159.5 rushing yards per game.
Here is the weather report for Cleveland on Sunday, "Mostly cloudy and windy with rain that should be ending in the afternoon. High 54F. Winds SW at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80%. Winds could occasionally gust over 50 mph. "
With the return of Chubb and Teller, the Texans horrible run defense, AND the weather concerns. I would expect Cleveland to get back to their roots and look to run the ball 60-65% of the time and mix in some play action shots.
My algo has this as 30-24 CLE however with the weather concerns and predicted game script I would lean on a much lower scoring game.
Some extra info to consider: Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games and they are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games as underdogs.
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Jacksonville at Green Bay: Bottom of the barrel Jaguars travel to Green Bay to take on the rested Packers who are off a win 10 days ago vs. the 49ers. This should be a GB game all day. In fact, this is most likely going to be my pick in the $100M Golden Ticket on DK. This does point to a shootout with something like a GB 34-17 repeat performance. However, Just like the Browns game the weather report is dangerous for shootouts. "Cloudy and windy. There will be periods of light rain in the morning. High 41F. Winds W at 25 to 35 mph. Chance of rain 70%. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph." Rain and snow are manageable, but heavy winds make it a running game script more often than not.
My algo has GB 31-20 so I don't think I feel comfortable laying the 13.5. However, JAX is JAX, so I definitely don't feel comfortable laying with them on the road with a rookie QB in bad weather...
This game is most likely a pass for me except for some Aaron Jones props.
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Philadelphia at NY Giants: Battle for the NFC EAST. Wow that sucks, considering these two teams have a combined record 5-11-1. Philly is coming out of a bye and returning a ton of offensive talent. "Alshon Jeffery will make his season debut after not receiving an injury designation, while Miles Sanders will start at running back for the first time since Week 6 (knee). Lane Johnson will start at right tackle after not receiving an injury designation. Jason Peters will start at left tackle. "
The Giants however are starting to come together defensively. Their offense is still meh, but their defense has kept them in their last 5 games (with two wins over WAS and 3 losses by a FG or less each time.
For me this come down to the same thing as the next game. Give me a home team, catching points, in a divisional game that is the second meeting.
Ehhh, during my morning poop I decided that the majority of bettors should be thinking the same thing here. Maybe I shouldn't overthink, but I'm back on the Eagles side. 💩
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Tampa Bay at Carolina: Big game for Tampa Bay here. Losing last week to the Saints was a huge stumble for them, basically giving up control of winning their division. Carolina put up another hard fight and almost gave the Chiefs an upset, losing by only 2! In fact, since that last game vs. Tampa Bay the Panthers are 5-0 ATS when in the underdog role.
Normally, I would be all over Carolina. My algo actually has this as TB -4... Throw that in with TB having back to back poor showings prior and it seems like a perfect spot to take the home dog and the points.
However, when we look closer at when Brady has struggled this year, it's when the opposing team is generating pressure and creating sacks. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, Carolina does neither of those. The Panther have only 10 sacks and 23 QB hits so far this season. They are more of a drop back 7 or 8 and give up short stuff, but don't give up the long balls. Which is perfect for Brady to get back into his comfort zone.
Still even with Brady having more time in the pocket and TB probably righting the ship in the win column, I don't think there is value in the -6. Carolina is one of those pesky teams that is playing close games and this IS the second meeting for these two.
Extra notes: Brady 19-6 ATS after a loss. 7-1 ATS after a 20 points loss....On the other side, Bridgewater is 21-4 ATS in his career as an underdog including 5 straight covers as a dog this season...
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Denver at Las Vegas: Another divisional matchup. This one features the up and down Broncos coming off a loss who are 2-2 since the return of Drew Lock taking on the Raiders who are having an up season starting the first half 5-3. Even though the Raiders are playing at home for the first time in weeks and are allowing fans to this game, my algo is still showing this as only LV -1. It heavily favors the over and likes a lean on the Raiders to win, but the spread is far too high for me to consider Las Vegas.
Could be a spot to look at the Broncos value with some points but Lock has been bad in the first 3 quarters of most of his games, only really getting hot in the 4th when teams are up and drop into prevent D. I could see him starting faster today since he is taking on a Raiders D, however I thought the same thing vs. ATL recently and he stunk it up.
Jerry Judy is my prop look in this one.
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Buffalo at Arizona: Two similar high ceiling offenses meet in this one. At the start of the week I was all Buffalo. In fact, I took them on Thursday in my BBDLS with the Colts and others. However, after running the algo and checking the news my pick has shifted FIRMLY to the Cardinals. First of all, my algo spits this out a 25-28 game in AZ favor. However, with todays news of the Bills TE, two corners, and a safety on the covid list and not traveling for game, That pushes a lean to a strong lean.
Then, we look at each teams strengths and weaknesses. Both teams have potent offenses with mobile QBs and deep threat WRs, so basically a wash there. Defensively The Bills rush defense has been horrrrrible giving up 146 ypg over their last 5 games. On the other team, the AZ rush defense is not all the best, ranking overall 22nd in the league. So slight edge to AZ there. However, when we look at Buffalo losing their deep and edge players due to Covid this week I think we can safely say the edge is on the AZ side.
This is another perfect game to try a Same Game Parlay however I would be weary of the total. 56.5 is rather high. I like the over on 51 and below, but over 51 it loses its value.
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LA Chargers at Miami: This is a game I am excited to watch. My algo really likes Herbert and Burrow so it will be exciting to watch at least one of them in this game. There isn't much to this one. My algo has it as a Pick-em. Miami has placed two starters in the front seven on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Chargers Starting RB is now Bellange, coming home for a revenge game against a weak front 7... Behind him is the best rookie QB we have seen since Patty cakes...
MIA had a surprisingly big win last week but that high emotion leads me to believe they will start this game a little flat. If LA gets a lead, this game is over.
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Seattle at LA Rams: So this one actually hurts to write. I am a big SEA fan this year. I have a future on them to win the NFC and also the SB. However, I am also fond of this LA Rams team this year. I expected them to get over their SB slump (that the 49ers are in right now) and win at least 8/9 games this year.
My algo (as weird as it seems) is spitting out LAR -3.5 in a 27-23.5 style contest. I am still not sure I can place this bet on the Rams. Even tho the algo speaks, the Rams have only really beat the NFC East and the Bears this year. They haven't faced a QB like Russ yet, nor one that has weapons like DK and Lockett.
TBH this seems like the perfect game to middle on. Divisional battle. Possibly take SEA to +8.5 and balance it with some LAR ml or even LAR +3.5.
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San Francisco at New Orleans: Beep Boop Beep Boop! Alert alert. This game is so confusing! I feel like NO could win easy 34-17, or SF could upset win some 27-24 grind out with some trick plays and jets sweeps.
Obviously because of those many possible scenarios, the value is found in SF +10. Seems to be the perfect spot for it too. SF lost a blowout on primetime last Thursday and the Saints won a blowout in primetime last Sunday. Public money should be alll over the Saints. If taking a big dog is too much of a sweat for you there are some decent props to look at in this game. SF is getting back a TON of offensive weapons and I expect them to look for a lot of short completions that allow the receivers a safer way to get yards.
As crazy as this sounds, my algo actually has SF as -1.5 for this matchup... Im guessing it is assuming Jimmy G and Kittle are in, along with Sanders and Thomas being out but still and 11 point difference is the biggest I have seen all year.
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Baltimore at New England: Last game on the slate and it has the scariest feeling. I LOVE Baltimore this year. Outside of the Chiefs, they are my other AFC contender to go against the Seahawks in the Superbowl. The looked good last week bouncing back from their two losses to smack around the Colts team.
On the flip side, NE needed a 4th quarter comeback to beat... THE JETS.... who by the way, put up 30 on them...
Should be a slam dunk Baltimore go go go...
But what's scary to me is 94/93 % of the tickets AND the cash are on the Ravens. And allll week the line has barely moved. Even the Saints vs. the 49ers moved from 7.5-10 throughout the week.
So while I will need a Baltimore win to wrap up all my parlays and teasers on the day, some thing is very scary about those percentages. Vegas RARELY pays out 90 percent of bettors....
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Singles (60-81, -35.26u)
Parlays (6-23, +37.76u)
Teasers (2-2, +27.38u)
BBDLS (0-44, -35.69u)
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CreateYoureReality NFL Week 6 Sunday Games Analysis and Picks (And Week 5 Recap)

Week 5 Recap: Look at us, putting in another solid card, right on que. As I have said in previous years, weeks 1-4 are usually a little high variance, but weeks 5-14 are where the data collection yields it's fruits. Thursday was fantastic, we picked the underdog upset and went 4-0 on the night. Sunday was also a positive day. We were VERY close to some big boy daddy long shots. I feel confident that they will show a return eventually, they are just a long term play. Our teaser was 1 off, that tends to happen with teasers over 3/4 picks so nbd. Overall a good building week. Let's keep this train rolling!
Singles (9-8, +5.6u)
Parlays (2-1, +19.6u)
Teasers (0-1, -5u)
BBDLS (0-8, -6.8u)
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SUNDAY GAMES
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Chicago at Carolina: Bears coming off a win over the Bucs and some extra days rest. Carolina also coming off a win (3 game win streak) where they were underdogs. At the beginning of the week when the lines were released I jumped on the Bears +3 And the Ml +120 for 2u and 1u respectively. However, the more research that was done, the more I like Carolina. Neither of these teams are proven winners yet as all of their wins have come against losing teams. Carolina is like TEN in that they aren't flashy, they just are well coached, execute properly and do their best to minimize mistakes while forcing the other team to WIN the game. As we have seen when they face a team that can win, that team does win. But if they face teams that have trouble getting the win...Carolina out executes them and wins comfortably. The main problem I see Carolina having when losing is they settle for too many field goals in the red zone. (27th in red zone efficiency, scoring touchdowns on just 10 of its 20 red zone trips) Unfortunately for them, this is the Bears defensive strength. They are currently No. 1 in the red zone and No. 2 on third down.
A side story I am looking at in this game is running back Mike Davis returning to CHI (the team that drafted him and then let him go). He has been running as an unstoppable force these last 3 games and I look for it to mostly continue. I do think against this bears front he is more likely to get his action through receptions and YAC than through handoffs.
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Detroit at Jacksonville: This one should be simple (I feel like I say that a lot for Detroit write ups) Detroit is coming off a bye and this is the perfect time to put together some wins. They have a VERY favorable schedule coming up but to have any shot at catching Green Bay or Chicago need to take care of the easy ones. This week and next week are those games.
Jacksonville is coming off another loss, this one to the previously winless Texans. Their main problem is defense. They have given up 30+ to every team in their losing streak and the only team they beat was, IMO a bad QB. (Late age Phillip Rivers in a season opener with no preseason) Bad news for them, as mentioned, the Lions are coming off a bye week and have now returned previously injured players. Look for Adrian Peterson to have a day and keep an eye out for the return of Kenny Galloday.
My algo likes this game for an over and so I put in a Same game parlay on Fanduel for half a unit. It is a BBDLS to win +150u. There are a few games to look at same game parlays on, and with the way both of these two teams have played defensively, this is definitely one of those games.
Side note, this was a pretty detailed video explaining why the Lions will defeat the Jags: https://youtu.be/7RVcmu3fHeM
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Atlanta at Minnesota: Failcons blew another one. They started out exactly as I predicted, leaning heavy on Gurley and blitzing Teddy B, getting a lead... but then they just stalled. Now... Quinn is gone.
Minnesota played a hell of a game week 5 and gave themselves every opportunity to win. They just didn't convert in a key spot and gave Russ the chance to win it...and that's what he did. Based on team vs team matchup, we would expect the Vikings to take this one. Cousins has had a rough first few matchups, but a shitty Falcons D could be his elixir back to at least an average form. Cook is out, but Mattison is a very capable backup that has replaced Cook well. The key to this one will be MIN D. It was able to slow Russ down last week, finally showing signs of cohesion, but once crunch time came, they fell apart. Can they keep climbing, back to a normal form? Or will Matt Ryan look to prove it was Quinn and his leadership that held him back and come out and win this one.
Personally I am a huge fan of betting on a team when they get an interim coach. We took Houston last week, and they rolled nicely. Here is what interim coach Raheem Morris had to say, "At the end of the day, we have to find a way to put our foot on people's throats and end games," Morris said. "That's what has got to happen."
Feels like he knows his defense is trash and he's going to be very loosey goosey with his play calling this week. This is another game my algo likes the over in and has potential for Same game parlays on player props.
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Houston at Tennessee: Houston broke the winless streak and the curse of Obrien has been lifted. They looked good, but let's keep in mind that was vs a sinking Jacksonville team. Tennessee, as predicted and given as a play to my premium subscribers, continued the winning ways and crushed the Bills in a Tuesday game! Now on short rest return home to take on the Texans in an important divisional match up.
This is tough because TEN is coming off a shorrrrrt week. After playing Tuesday night, that only leaves them 4 days of travel, rest, game planning, and the tons of Covid protocols to go through. I feel like as the better, complete team, they have the overall advantage given all things neutral. However with the increased energy for the Houston team after the coaching chances and first win and the short week for TEN defense to recover, my algo leans a HOU cover and possible win.
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Washington at NY Giants: Whelp, Washington went exactly like I wrote last week, haha. We got to see Alex Smith! Seriously though, Kyle Allen looked pretty legit in the first quarter. He was a Full participant in practice on Friday and looks to be good to go for this one. On the other side Daniel Jones is just not progressing. Last week the Giants put up over 30 points and Jones threw 0 TDs. HOW ARE THE GIANTS FAVORITES?!
I feel like Rivera's thought process is...if we can win the next 3 games, (2 against an 0-5 team and 1 vs. the worst defense in the league right now) we are 4-4 and 4-0 in the division. With another divisional game vs the depleted eagles still to be played this season. I expect Rivera to unleash some early deep balls and pressure the shit out of Jones.
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Cleveland at Pittsburgh: 17 years since a Browns win in Pittsburg. Cleveland did well for us last week and got the upset vs the Colts. They are looking like the Titans, establish a good run game, have the QB make manageable throws, take a few shots, play above average D.
The Steelers are 4-0 and their defense is averaging 3+ sacks(5 PER) and 1+ INT per game this year...but who have they played? winless Giants, and three one win teams in the Eagles, Texans, and Broncos...
The major weakness to the Steeler D is that they are allow teams to convert a whopping 50% on third down.
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Baltimore at Philadelphia: Ehhhh, another one of those game I don't want to touch. Outside of the win vs the 49ers, I don't know what is keeping this line between 7-9.5. I am not sure why it didn't open closer to 10 than 7. Usually when something like this happens it's a flag for me to stay away or take the dog. However Philly? I'd rather lay money on the Jets ml than the Phl ml right now
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Cincinnati at Indianapolis: Cincy lost what looked to be a blowout vs the ravens. But if you look closer, their defense played surprisingly well against one of the better offenses in the league. Burrow was again sacked like 47 times and the offense had trouble getting anything going. The Colts are coming off a loss to the Browns where its now becoming glaringly obvious that Old man Rivers is getting too old to be a starting QB for a team with this good of a defense and this good of an offensive line. I mean shit, you put Sam Darnold in this team and I bet he looks twice as good as Rivers. This will be an interesting game and I am excited to see Burrow get his second win ;)
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Green Bay at Tampa Bay: BATTLE OF THE BAYS 4-0 Packers traveling to Florida to take on the 3-2 Bucs. Both teams off rest with the Packers coming off a bye week and the Bucs playing the previous TNF. The Packers are getting Davante Adams and Mercedes Lewis back. The Bucs are getting back almost there whole offense in Godwin, Evans, and Fournette. Honestly, my algo has this game as TB -2.5. It targets the Bucs pass rush as being the difference maker in this one. When under pressure Rodgers goes from a passer rating of 141.1 and a completion % of 80 with 9.4 YPA all the way to a 68.8 passer rating with a completion % of 34.6 and 6YPA. So far this season the GB O line has protected Rodgers well. However, they have yet to face a formidable pass rush with their only challenges being MIN and NO, both shells of their former defenses.
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LA Rams at San Francisco 49ers: The Rams are turning into a very nice team this year. I have been high on them all season, and I will continue smoking that dooby for this game. Don't get me wrong, there is a reason this game is only 3.5 even though the Rams blew out their last opponent and the 49ers GOT blown out, but the Rams this year feel like the 49ers of last year. Stout defense, a committee of running backs, both of those elevating average QB play to above average. As you can see, without the dominant running game and stout defense, Jimmy G (or whoever plays QB for the previous SB finalist 49ers) struggles.
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NY Jets at Miami: No analysis for this one. I am skipping it except for some small plays on the Jets. I am not confident enough in MIA to take them as a large favorite. I am not comfortable enough in Joe Flaco to take him at this point in his career for any large amount. But, this is the NFL and any given Sunday so I feel there is always a little value on massive dogs that the public is against.
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Denver at New England: Both of these teams have been off the field so long, how can we know what to expect? Who is even QB for both of these teams? Is Cam back and if so, is he healthy? Personally I think it shouldn't matter too much for the overall winner of the game. You give me Billy B with two weeks to prepare and I'll take him coach for the Falcons over this Denver team. But the spread is a decent amount of points to cover with little knowledge on the status of the players. Outside of some ml parlays, I will be avoiding this game.
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***I put in a few bets at the beginning of the week to start getting the best of numbers I like. Sometimes my fade switches as I learn more info throughout the week. The bets with \** were all placed at the beginning of the week, so tail those with caution.*
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Singles (29-30, -2.56u)
Parlays (2-11, -14.09u)
Teasers (1-4, +23.85u)
BBDLS (0-27, -22.57u)
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Official Week 10 R/NFL Power Rankings

Make sure you're sitting down, and check for yourself if you don't believe me, but we're already at the double-digit mark for gameweeks in the football season. That's right folks, it's already time for the Week 10 Official nfl Power Rankings! It's amazing how fast time flies; three months ago, training camps were wrapped as teams made their way through the August doldrums of pre-season football. Now look at us! Heck in three months time, not only will we have crowned a new champion, but Antonio Brown might have landed himself a paycheck! Between your prop bets on which prominent fast food chain will be the first to employ Mr. Big Collections, feast your eyes on the following list of teams. As always, these are collated from a representational slice of 32 hopeless gambling degenerates. 31/32 reporting.
# Team Δ Record Comment
1. Patriots +1 8-1 Big run from here on out after the bye, starting with the Eagles. The Patriots needed the R&R to get healthier and to make the adjustments needed in readying for the playoffs.
2. Ravens +2 7-2 Lamar Jackson put himself at or near the front of the MVP race as the Ravens offense continues to dominate. Harbaugh and Roman have schemed the NFL's best offense by balancing the league's leading rushing attack with a passing game that uses all three TEs to much aplomb. The defense has moved past their early struggles with the addition of Marcus Peters and the return of Jimmy Smith; it now consistently gets pressure with a blitz heavy scheme.
3. 49ers -2 8-1 In an instant MNF classic, the Niners dropped their first game of the season. Without his two top receiving threats, Jimmy G looked uncomfortable in the pocket and had trouble throwing anywhere more than five yards downfield. Three turnovers turned into the only three touchdowns by the Seahawks. The defense looked impressive, but the short fields and poor execution by the offense wasted their effort. The team looks to regroup on Sunday in a home match up against the Cardinals.
4. Seahawks +1 8-2 Russell Wilson is now 13-3 in his career against Santa Clara "San Francisco" and 8-2 on Monday Night Football, there are no longer any undefeated teams left in the NFL, and John Schneider's trades look like genius moves. Jadeveon Clowney, Jacob Hollister, and Quandre Diggs all played huge roles in this win, and it looks like there's good news on Tyler Lockett's injury as well. Even Jason Myers redeemed himself. Phenomenal game that would have been heartbreaking to lose.
5. Saints -2 7-2 The Saints under Sean Payton have always relied on a strong OL platform to run their offensive scheme. The Falcons came in with a plan to disrupt that blocking and reaped the rewards with a decisive win.
6. Packers +1 8-2 The Packers got back into the groove with a home win over the Panthers. Turnovers and the fact that the Panthers defense couldn't find any solution for Aaron Jones were the main factors in this one. Aaron Jones splits time with Jamaal Williams, yet he was still exchanging the league lead for TDs with Christian McCaffrey throughout this game. Remember that name: Aaron Jones.
7. Vikings +1 7-3 Even in primetime against a team with a winning record, Kirk Cousins continues to put up MVP numbers, and even across from Ezekiel Elliot, there was no doubt who was the best running back on Sunday night.. Danielle Hunter ranks first in the NFL in pressures generated while Everson Griffen ranks third, and though the secondary still struggles in coverage, Eric Kendricks leads all linebackers in pass breakups..
8. Chiefs -2 6-4 A triumphant game from the Mahomes-to-Hill combination still left the Chiefs on the wrong end of the scoreline on Sunday. Unfortunately, though the Chiefs are stacked with talent in some parts of the roster, inconsistent play in the trenches threatens to implode this team's playoff hopes.
9. Texans -- 6-3 Dolphins 16 - 12 Colts
10. Cowboys +1 5-4 Like an annual ritual of an ancient cannibalistic tribe, the calls for Jason Garrett’s head have begun - and rightfully so. The inexplicable playcalling, ultra-conservative approach, and complete lack of in-game adjustments are hard to argue with. With a roster of this caliber, it’s hard to find fault in any area greater than the coaching. Heading into a slew of primetime games, the entire nation may get to witness the final fall of Garrett.
11. Eagles +3 5-4 The Eagles had a bye week in advance of hosting New England next Sunday.
12. Rams -2 5-4 With the season in a shambles, fans can spin the blame-o-meter and be happy with whatever space it lands on. Between McVay, Goff, the O-line, front office trades, and even the refs (at times), there's no shortage of awfulness to go around. It's not like the future is much brighter as the Rams' next first round pick is in 2022. Let the 8-8 McVay era begin.
13. Bills -1 6-3 The Bills came into this week playing against the 30th ranked run defense in football. Offensive coordinator and certified genius Brian Daboll proceeded call a mere 13 runs while dialing up more than 40 passes. The highlight was when the offense fought back from 1st-and-25 just to huck a gimmicky, one-read deep ball into double coverage on 3rd-and-4 because Buffalo isn’t allowed to have nice things. As for the two missed field goals that would have given the Bills the win: one supposes that's the football gods' way of making up for the team's win in Tennessee. Buffalo's fate is still in their own hands, but there's a lot to clean up.
14. Raiders +2 5-4 Chargers fans call Rivers "Dad", and following his stellar performance (2 ints, 1 TD, and a 3rd int called back) they are calling Erik Harris "Grandpa". After a coming out game for Clellin Ferrell the Raiders are now sitting just half a game back in the AFC west. The last half of the season is going to be fun to watch.
15. Steelers +3 5-4 People will talk about Russell Wilson as the MVP because of the impact he has involving other players at the QB position, but isn't it noteworthy when a single defensive player can improve an entire defense himself without directly giving the ball to others? Whatever Minkah Fitzpatrick is, it's by far the biggest impact on the Steelers this year and the sole reason they have risen from mediocrity to respectability. Fans expect Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson to change the face of an entire game (and they do), but there are a handful of defensive players every generation who do it, and it's usually a solo effort like Junior Seau. They don't often make everyone else better as well. If the Steelers actually turn this around and do something, it's because Fitzpatrick keeps it going.
16. Colts -3 5-4 The wheels are off at this point. But even in the midst of this nightmare season, Colts fans can enjoy the incredible tracts of real estate we own in the minds of the small-team Texans supporters. Even their blurb up the thread only talks about us. Rent free!
17. Panthers -2 5-4 News that Cam Newton's season is done has split the Panthers fanbase into two halves. The ones who want to roll with Kyle Allen are directly opposed to those who want Cam back in the fold for 2020. It remains to be seen which way the Panthers' front office will go.
18. Titans +4 5-5 The Titans let Patrick Mahomes put up the most passing yards (446) by any QB in Nissan Stadium, but Tennessee was able to survive with a last-second FG block by Joshua Kalu. Derrick Henry continued his success against the Chiefs with 188 rushing yards and 2 TDs. Somehow, Andy Reid is now 1-8 against the Titans.
19. Bears +1 4-5 When two bad teams play each other, technically the game must end in a result that changes the record of said teams after 60 minutes of playtime. Those rules were followed on Sunday, and there's not much fans can take away from the game except that it was nice to see the Bears beat a team they should beat. The Lions tried to avenge their loss to backup Chase Daniel last year by playing their own backup, but instead, they just lost. Maybe it was part of a deep state plan to keep Trubisky as starter, as The Onion suggested last weekend!
20. Chargers -2 4-6 The major takeaway from this game should not be the supposed decline of Philip Rivers but rather the importance of offensive line play. The Chargers played much of the game with 3 backups on the OL and the unit as a whole played unacceptably bad, allowing a meager Raiders pass rush to tee off on Phil. In comparison, the Raiders' OL had a significantly better game against the Chargers pass rush. At 4-6 with an 0-2 divisional record, the Chargers have their work cut out for them, even if the Chiefs are only two games ahead. The Chargers must beat KC in Mexico City if they want to stay relevant in the postseason hunt.
21. Lions -4 3-5-1 Many, perhaps most, Lions fans are ready to boot Patricia and Quinn. Maybe they are right, and it's time. However, it would be hard to argue that the Lions haven't been one of the most injury-affected teams this year, and when fans also consider that all but one loss has been extremely close, it's not so cut and dry. If they can finish strong (unlikely without Matthew, but who knows), it could reestablish some optimism for the future.
22. Jaguars -1 4-5 Minshew Mania is over (for now). It's time to give Jason Mendoza what he wants. FOOOOLLLLEEEESSSSSS!
23. Buccaneers +2 3-6 Bruce Arians coached with toddler-like petulance, throwing a challenge flag on a DPI he knew he'd lose, followed by a challenge flag he didn't have resulting in another lost timeout. Despite his infantile behavior, the Bucs managed to pull out a narrow victory over the Cardinals, bringing their record to 3-6. Rookies Jamel Dean and Devin White made a number of splash plays and Shaq Barrett continued his DPOY worthy campaign. This team is better than the record shows, but if my mother had wheels, she'd be a bicycle.
24. Browns +2 3-6 Relying on your opponent to miss a field goal to win a game is not a viable long term strategy. The Browns won, but it wasn't for lack of effort.
25. Cardinals -2 3-6-1 A dropped wide-open touchdown pass, a special teams mistake causing a six-point swing, and an untimely interception were too much for the Cardinals to overcome as they dropped their 3rd straight game. Aside from those mistakes, the defensive play has been absolutely atrocious. Sure, they caused some turnovers, but while the offense has been improving, the defense has been going in the opposite direction with the 2nd-most points and yards given up in the NFL.
26. Broncos -2 3-6 Russell Wilson is dummy thicc.
27. Falcons +1 2-7 Defensive play calling duties were split between Raheem Morris and Jeff Ulbrich for the first time this season, and what a game it was. Three of Atlanta's six sacks came on third down, which could potentially be a brand new sentence. Vic Beasley hasn't looked this youngry in years, and Drew Brees hasn't EVER scored fewer than double digits in the Superdome. Quinn made a great decision by taking himself out of the equation, falling faster from grace than any other coach in recent memory. Chase Young may be sitting in Flowery Branches' shopping cart at the moment, but no player will ever be good enough to make Atlanta want to lose to New Orleans.
28. Dolphins +3 2-7 We're sorry to interrupt your previously scheduled documentary on armored military vehicles, but we've got news of a disturbance going on down in Miami. Pardon me sir, did you see what happened? Oh yes, they call it the streak. They claimed 'nother victory. They're just as proud as can be, of their abilities. They haven't yet peaked!
29. Jets +1 2-7 The Jets' front 7 turned in one of their most dominating performances in recent memory by making contact with Saquon Barkley behind the line of scrimmage on almost every rushing attempt. The defensive gameplan forced the Giants' victory to fall squarely on the shoulders of Daniel Jones. Thanks in large part to the President impeaching the ball from him, Jones came up short.
30. Giants -3 2-8 The Giants are now officially the #2 team in New Jersey, with Pat Shurmur having now added Adam Gase to his resume of coaches that out-coached him. John Mara is angry, but he might want to take a look in the mirror because he hired the front office team that got us into this position in the first place. Once a beacon of hope and, in all honesty, many fans' sole reason for watching Giants games, Saquon Barkley has not looked anything like his 2018 self this year. If he is truly healthy, as the Giants say he is, one has to wonder what is going on that keeps holding him back game in and game out.
31. Redskins -2 1-8 The Redskins named Dwayne Haskins their starting QB for the remainder of the season, and fans are finally going to see the rookie QB get a chance to play and grow. Meanwhile, the race for last place and the first overall draft pick is heating up.
32. Bengals -- 0-9 If Mike Brown keeps getting rid of his scapegoats (Marvin Lewis, Andy Dalton), people are going to start to realize the real reason the Bengals are bad. He's an incompetent owner.
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MLB (Main Slate) Pitchers & Stacks + Sports Betting Picks!

MLB Stacks & Plays from CheatSheetPros! << Up arrow if you like the content! >>
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
MLB Blitz continues headed into the holiday week! Yesterday we had Shane Bieber who went 5.0 innings with 10 Ks, Glasnow who went 5.1 with 3 ER but saved the day with 9 Ks and then our punt Antone who was cheap and went 5.0 with 1 ER and 6 Ks. We stacked White Sox (8 runs) and Tigers (10 runs) in our article. I’ve been working hard on the NFL CheatSheet for 2020 and excited to mix in some NFL breakdowns this year!
PITCHERS I AM LOOKING AT:
MAX SCHERZER – I could see a full “fade” here on this short slate if you want to be different for GPP. His last 3 starts he has put up 14, 34 and 7 DK points but his BABIP is .365 so he is going to start getting a little more luck on his side. He has a 3.29 xFIP and allowing a .260 average. Priced at 10,400 on DK there is some risk here today with his recent form but with no many options you could go either way.
ZAC GALLEN – Now we come down to 9200 for Gallen who has a tough matchup vs. this SFG team that is 6th in their last 10 game power rankings and rank top 5 in our all team stats over the last 14 days. He has been stellar this year and coming into the start in great form. He has put up 28, 24, 19, 27 and 22 DK points in his last 5 starts. His ERA is 1.80 but his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 3.67 which is still solid. Only allowing a .182 batting average.
DINELSON LAMET – We get a cheap price tag on Lamet today at only 8800 on DK. His last two starts he was priced at 9900 and 9800. Lamet has a solid K9 ratio at 11.5 this year and was 12.9 last year. He is facing a COL team that is striking out a whopping 26% of the time over the last 14 days and he is a -180 favorite. Padres should win this game and Lamet should get the win which is +4 points. Lamet has been sliding a little as he put up 37.8 DK points, then fell down to 25 and 22 and then 12 and 17 on his last two starts. He has upside with his 37.8 DK points going 6.2 innings, 1 ER and 11Ks for a high this year.
ZACH PLESAC – Only 7600 today on DK and has a soft matchup vs. KC. Plesac has put up 25, 28, 19 and 38 DK points in his last 4 starts and those combined for 27.0 innings, 4 ERs and 30 strikeouts. He just faced KC in his last start in KC and went 6.0 innings, 1 ER and 6 strikeouts. CLE is a heavy favorite today and has the 3rd best bullpen behind him so he should lock down the win today. Love the matchup and price tag!
BRAD KELLER – If you want to pivot off Plesac or even match up with him you can use Brad Keller at only 6700. Keller has a 1.93 ERA this year and allowing a .177 batting average. There are some red flags though as he has an xFIP of 4.27 with a BABIP of only .230. I do like his BVP history vs. CLE as he has faced this team for 56 Abs and only allowing a .161 batting average with a 27% strikeout rate. GPP only.
KEVIN GAUSMAN – Gausman is the cheapest pitcher on the slate today at only 6100! He has put up 19, 18, 24, 22, 14 and 16 DK points over his last 6 starts and that is great value on his price tag of 6.1k. I mean across the last 4 in terms of X value you are roughly looking at 3x, 3x, 4x and 4x. Scherzer isn’t likely to push 4x today, I mean that would be 42+ DK points and he has only broke 30 DK points twice this entire season. Gausman has a good matchup vs. ARI who ranks 25th in the last 10 game power rankings and they fall into our “Low/Mid” range for fantasy points. He has faced them for 75 Abs and allowing a .240 batting average and a 27% strikeout rate. 5 of the projected starting lineup hitters are batting below .205. You can’t ask for a better matchup for a punt pitcher if you want to stack up some studs today!
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STACKS TO CONSIDER:
SAN DIEGO PADRES VS. KYLE FREELAND (27TH BULLPEN) – Love this Padres who rank #1 in our last 10 game power rankings and they are 1st in team batting average, 3rd in runs per game and 3rd in OBP+ISO over the last 14 days. Stack is expensive with 4700-5000 average per player if you want all the studs in the lineup. Kyle Freeland is allowing a .295 batting average with an ERA over 4.00 this year. No everyone is going to argue that it includes Coors home starts so let’s look at the entire year last year on the road. He shows up with a 4.61 ERA and allowing a high 1.43 whip and .259 batting average through 56.2 innings. His last two starts he has given up 8 ER and only lasted a combined 6.1 innings with 19 hits. Vegas has the Padres projected at 4.9 runs and our model has them at 5.6 runs so we like the stack.
HOUSTON ASTROS VS. FRANKIE MONTAS (2ND BULLPEN) – Montas is a great pitcher and last year had a 2.63 ERA and allowing a low .230 batting average and has a great bullpen behind him. Vegas has Houston projected at only 4.2 runs and we have them at 5.1 so this could be a sneaky stack that is cheap! Montas has had two rough starts in a row. He gave up 4 ER in only 4.2 vs. LAA and then he gave up 9 ER in only 1.2 innings @ ARI. Houston is 4280 per player for the top 5 man graded stack. Springer, Reddick, Gurriel and Correa all over 10+ Abs off Montas and batting over .300.
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SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
On Saturday we posted some picks with a play on Nationals +250 parlayed with over 9.5 and it easily covered with Nationals winning 10-4 for a +635 payout! Yesterday we added in 5 games that you could bet, parlay or play the run line and they ALL WON going 4-0 and we gave you two pitcher props taking the Bieber OVER and Glasnow OVER in strikeouts and they both easily covered for another 2 WINS! When I post games I let you know which sides I like and why but you have to decide the risk/reward vs parlaying them or betting them outright. I typically don’t straight bet games that are -200 or higher.
ATLANTA BRAVES -200 over MIAMI – Ian Anderson has been stellar this year for ATL with a 2.25 ERA and allowing a low .163 batting average. In his 2 starts he has went a combined 12.0 innings with 3 RS and 14 strikeouts. Now facing a MIA team that is striking out a whopping 27% of the time over the last 14 days and rank 21st in runs per game. ATL ranks 5th in our last 10 game power rankings, 2nd in runs per game, 1st in OBP+ISO and they face Jose Urena coming off the IL. They have faced him for 101 team Abs and they are hitting .337 off him with a low 19% strikeout rate. Parlay the ATL moneyline or bet the run line.
SAN DIEGO PADRES -180 – Padres are #1 in our last 10 game power rankings on our MLB Cheatsheets and they get to face Kyle Freeland and the 27th ranked bullpen AND they are at home. Padres at home have a wRC+ that jumps from 107.6 to 138.2 and their OBP+ISO goes from .521 up to .619. Our custom model on our cheatsheet post a total projected for every game and we have this at 5.6 to 4.0 with Padres on top. Parlay the moneyline or hit the run line.
CLEVELAND -210 – Cleveland ranks 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings and facing the Royals who rank 29th. Our model has this game at 4.8 to 3.3. Both pitchers are solid in this matchup with Plesac and Keller but the bullpen is the difference with CLE ranking 3rd on the year and KC rankings 21st. KC is “Ice/Cold” in our team production ranks and Cleveland is “Good”. Not my favorite play straight up because KC is due for a big win but I like it parlayed.
HOUSTON +125 parlayed with OVER 9.0 (pays +330) – Oakland is a -135 favorite tonight with Montas on the mount and the 2nd ranked bullpen. However, Montas has given up 13 ER in his last two starts and Houston is starting to heat up. If Houston can get to Montas and tag him for 4-5 runs I like Houston winning as a dog AND if they win I think there is a strong likelihood this game also goes OVER the total of only 9.0 runs.
MY BETS:
Houston +125 + over 9.0 runs: 1 unit pays +3.30 units
San Diego Padres parlayed Atlanta Braves: 2 units pays +2.60 units
Padres + Braves + Cleveland: 1 units pays 2.5 units.
Mega Parlay Dart (these area always fun):
Padres/Braves/Cleveland/Houston/Houston over 9.0: 1 units pays +14 units.
Thanks for reading,
Haze
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Week 3 NFL (Thursday Night Football)

Week 3 NFL (Thursday Night Football)
Week 2 Recap: Week 2 felt great! The Rams/Eagles went as predicted. And we were the Lions covering their spread from a huuuuge day. One of the BBDLS missed by just them, 150-1ODDS! https://ibb.co/mcGjnLg
So did our second teaser! Luckily this one was a free bet :D https://ibb.co/YhgFWBR
Here is our record for everything from week 2. Still a little slow going in the singles, but as the season develops and I get more data on line play and defense, just as in years past, the prop game will really open up. We were fortunate to pull through on the KC game to win our biggest play so far (11u) and hit the first teaser to end the day +28.97u.
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Singles (6-8, -6.38u)
Parlays (0-1, -1.5u)
Teasers (1-1, +38.85u)
BBDLS (0-3, -2u)
Week 3 is here, lets see what the Thursday game has for us ! :D
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https://preview.redd.it/i17ut9z306p51.jpg?width=1000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6502446485939424cc7abf3e215ba1fe525fb002
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Mia at Jax: This is going to be a wonderful game. Two teams who live and die with the energy of the QB on any given Sunday. Personally my metrics are saying Jax is way the better team. MIA defense is just missing too many easy tackles. They do have Fitzmagic who can at any point give them an opportunity to win against mediocre teams, but the energy around the Stache right now is real. When this game first came out, it felt like there was heavy value on Jax and a shoot out, but apparently the sharps thought that too and instantly bet the line up from Jax -1.5 to Jax -3. The total also shot up 2-3 points in most books. So, the value on both is probably lost. Now contrarians can find value on MIA +3 since Fitz can usually keep them within a chance. Personally my algo and my gut are going with the Stache on this one. Might also look into JAX props for this one. As we said last week, I think this is going to be a great year for the rookie running back.
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Singles (8-9, -5.15u)
  • Jax ml (4u to win 2.5u)
  • Each Team to Score a TD in Each Half (3u to win 6u)
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Parlays (0-2, -5.5u)
  • SGP -- Gesicki Over 55.5 Rec, Minshew Over 17.5 Rush, Cole Over 55.5 Rec, Robinson Over 15.5 Rec, O'Shaughnessy anytime TD (1u to win 205.51u) \SGP- same game parlay on FanDuel. This is actually for 2u but they have a promo where they give you 1u back win or lose* BTW this is a huge gamble. A safer SGP that would still qualify for the bonus would be without* O'Shaughnessy .
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Teasers (1-1, +38.85u)
  • None
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BBDLS (0-3, -2u)
  • Mia/Jax: Each Team to Score a TD in Each Half, Paulo Costa ml, Cin +6, Ne ml, Ten ml, Ind ml, Cle ml, TB ml, GB ml, Bal ml, Dal +5.5 (1.4u to win 691.79u) Total gamble here with a mix of thursday nfl, sat ufc and sunday nfl.
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Futures: Whelp, I feel like I missed the value on Russ. He is now the MVP favorite and the Seahawks have gone from +2200 pre week 1, to +1600 post week 1 to +1200 post week 2 for Superbowl champ odds. Id say the best value now if you still believe in Russ like I do would be to parlay SEA and whomever you think will win the AFC. For me its Chiefs, and Ravens...but seeing how well Bellicheck is doing with Cam, I think there's always a chance he sneaks in. Especially if the ravens and chiefs face each other in the post season and eliminate one of them for the Pats.
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Thanks for reading and good luck to all!
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Who should the Dolphins take in the 2020 NFL Draft? (Number333 Breakdown - Offense)

MY HISTORY (BONAFIDES)
Sorry if putting my user in the title is ego-centric, I just love draft stuff. Here's my history in terms of wants/predictions with the Dolphins.
2017 NFL Draft - Pick #22. I wanted Forrest Lamp. He has been INCREDIBLY injured only playing 9 games in 3 years with the Chargers. I hated the idea of taking Taco Charlton. He got taken in the 1st by Dallas, got cut, and signed to us (lol was our leading sacker this past year with 5). I also thought we may take Jarrad Davis out of Florida who went to Detroit. Lions fans are disappointed with him and think he's bust. We ended up taking DE Charles Harris. The conclusion? You don't know shit, I don't know shit, and the Dolphins FO back then didn't know shit. Should have taken TJ Watt I guess.
2018 NFL Draft - Pick #11. I really liked Lamar Jackson. This was my snippet on the QBs. Fact check it yourself.
The Quarterbacks: They are the hoopla and the focus of everyones attention this year. I would say 5 Top-Tier guys in Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. In terms of my favorite of those 5, I have to go with Mayfield and Jackson. I LOVED Watson last year because he was a winner in college and had the "it" factor and I see a lot of that in Baker. Think he has definite boom or bust potential. I also really like Lamar Jackson because of the pure athleticism and feel like Gase could really work with him if he likes him(though I haven't heard much buzz involving him) After that, very meh on Darnold and Rosen terrifies me not because he's smart but Jimmy Clausen vibes. I would HATE Josh Allen because my god does he look like an obvious bust ala Blaine Gabbert.
I stand by almost every single comment I made there. I'm meh on Darnold, don't think Rosen is good, and while Josh Allen made the playoffs with Buffalo I still don't think he's leading them very far. I LOOOOOOOOOVED Roquan Smith out of Georgia. On the Bears post when they drafted him I said he had Defensive Player of the Year potential. He had injury issues this past year with a torn pectoral and got into a car crash a few months ago. He's been solid, but not game-breaking like I'd thought he'd be. I also loved Minkah (like everybody else in that draft post) and would be elated if we took him. We did! and hah... that worked out didn't it fellas?
2019 NFL Draft - Pick #13. It wasn't happening just because we won one too many games but I loved Ed Oliver as a DT. He made the All-Rookie team with Buffalo. I also liked Jonah Williams the OT the Bengals took despite it being boring, he got hurt in practice and didn't play a single down his rookie year. I did hit on us taking Christian Wilkins as a realistic option - he was alright I'd say. He had that stupid ejection on like the 4th play of the game, but let's hope with some actual DEs in Shaq Lawson and Ogbah along with Godchaux he can be more of an impact player next year. I was down on every QB except for Kyler Murray as well.
CONCLUSION? I'm not great at this but I have fun doing it. Take a trip if you're bored and you can hear a wild man's ramblings due to COVID-19 baby!
QUARTERBACKS
Tua Obsessed - Tua Tagovailoa is the end all be all for me. I like him more than Burrow, I think he'll be a better QB at the next level than Burrow, and I've felt this way for well over a year when I said I thought Tua would be viewed as an Andrew Luck-level prospect by the time the draft comes around. He is not without his flaws - specifically durability. I think it'd be unrealistic to expect 16 games a year from him for 10+ seasons. But I'd rather have him relatively healthy (Think Carson Wentz) over Herbert/Love by a mile. That's how good I think he is, and I think that the Dolphins contingency against him really shouldn't ever question Daunte Culpepper over Drew Brees if they're trepidatious over his injury history. It's just one throw but this absolute beauty late vs LSU... All I'm saying is a hobbled 60-70% Tua looked better than Trevor Lawrence did in the Championship Game. The absolute dream would be to get him with the #5 pick and not have to move up for him. I feel like our only real competition left at this point is the Chargers - I hope they stay put at #6, ride out Tyrod Taylor / fall in love with Herbert and I think we'll have one hell of a foundation moving forward.
Oh No, Tua's Gone... **** - So let's say Tua gets snatched by a team in front of us (Chargers, Raiders, Broncos... whoever really) and now we're left at the altar without a franchise QB. What's the next best alternative? Hard pass on Justin Herbert. I get that he has all the physical tools anybody could fall in love with - but I don't want to spend a Top 5 pick on an inconsistent gun-slinger just because everybody says he's the 3rd best QB prospect. I don't think he moves the needle as a QB. Maybe he'll be decent. But did we get rid of Tannehill to end up with another 5+ years of a Tannehill-middling QB? Don't think so. Jordan Love is a big-time project. Lots of raw stuff to like but from what I've read he has some awful habits he has to break before being ready at the next level. If we took him at #18 I wouldn't exactly love it since that's a high value pick you're using on a complete ? mark but I could see in the 2021 NFL Season us giving him some run. Still - prolly wouldn't be thrilled. After that, you're not really talking about 1st Rounders. Don't think Fromm will be very good. I like the idea of Hurts as a back-up, but in the 4th-5th Rounds and we already have Fitz/Rosen it doesn't really make sense. Eason's a JAG IMO. Shoutout to James Morgan from FIU for getting some draft buzz too.
TL;DR QBs - Give me Tua or give me death. If we draft Herbert, I will whine and bitch like I did when the Heat drafted Tyler Herro. Don't look up his draft post pls. I was in a bad place (still think Romeo Langford and Sekou will be good players tho). I'm not gonna pretend like I'm an idiot though, I called Josh Rosen not doing jack for us the second we traded for him.
RUNNING BACKS
J.K. Dobbins >>>>> D'Andre Swift - I can't fathom the love for Swift as the #1 RB. I think JK Dobbins is a great deal better, and I even like Jonathan Taylor more than Swift. In terms of how it pertains to the Dolphins, I know A LOT of people are down on drafting a RB at our #26 pick late in the 1st Round due to what just transpired with Todd Gurley and the history of 1st Round RBs getting paid big contracts and then not panning out... but JK Dobbins is a frigging baller. Has been since his Freshman year. It felt like vs Clemson he was good for 8+ yards every time they went to him. He does have more mileage on him than Swift but I love the idea of Dobbins being a great bailout option as a pass catching threat (since I don't understand how you could bet on our O-line being "good" given the last decade of performances). I'd love Dobbins 10x more at the start of the 2nd Round - but if we picked him at #26, I'd be quite happy.
Other RBs Later On - I really like Cam Akers. He failed to produce quite like Dalvin Cook but those FSU teams also took a down-turn in recent years. Also like Joshua Kelley out of UCLA. With the signing of Jordan Howard, I don't think we need to draft a mid-round RB. We've had some decent success with a 5th Rounder in Jay Ajayi, Drake as a 3rd Rounder has the Miami Miracle and was a nice change of pace back, and while Kalen Ballage was a gigantic disappointment last year as a 4th Rounder, he supposedly was doing well in camp and then none of that transitioned to gametime. I say roll with Howard, use Ballage here and there, and hope we have a preseason surprise standout (who remember the Orleans Darkwa games????)
TL;DR RBs - I think Dobbins is a lot better than Swift. Like as a late 1st, love as a 2nd. Akers is cool too. Not a huge need. Still expect us to draft at least one.
WIDE RECEIVERS
DVP / Preston / Hurns / Grant / Ford / Wilson, who tf else we need? - DeVante Parker emerged as the #1 WR in receiving yards in the AFC last year and blossomed with Fitzpatrick. He made Stephon Gilmore his son. He beasted on the Eagles in Mills/Darby. He became the AJ Green-like #1 WR we were waiting for when we took him in the 1st Round. Williams was a superstar in preseason, and while he had too many drops in the regular season he was our 2nd best WR by yards despite only playing in 8 games. His best game was in our 1st win vs the Jets. But even with his surprise emergence, I think we can 100% do with a high-end WR prospect. Think about it. Is 29-year old Allen Hurns a long-term commitment? Wilson flashed some 2018 ability but we can't seriously rely on him. Ford came on stronger as the season ended but his ceiling is limited if we're being honest. What I'm saying is, while this isn't an awful WR crew, a top WR wouldn't hurt and shouldn't be dismissed in favor of "DRAFT O-LINE MAN" just cuz it's O-lineman. We drafted Pouncey/Ju'Wuan/Tunsil and still had a bad O-line for the most part. It's not all about investing 1st Rounders.
Holy crap this WR class is stacked - Tua's boys in Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III are some of the top WRs. I think Jeudy is gonna be phenomenal, real hot take over here. If he's at pick #18 inexplicably, take his ass and don't look back. Same deal with CeeDee Lamb really - and I think he'd fit in better with our current WR crop given his RAC ability. I love Tee Higgins size but it's a duplicating skillset with DVP/Preston. Denzel Mims also tickles my fancy. If you want someone even later on in the draft, take a look at Quintez Cephus from Wisconsin. He has a wild history please be warned... accused of sexual assault, went through the whole ordeal, eventually found not guilty. We got Preston Williams undrafted due to his personality issues at Colorado. All I'm saying is in the 4th/5th Cephus could be a steal - all I hope for really is avoiding wasting assets trading up for a Leonte Carroo-tier WR.
TL;DR WRs - Jeudy/Lamb are must-haves if they're somehow there at pick #18 regardless of other needs. They won't be tho. We could absolutely use a higher end WR prospect to go with our crop of guys.
TIGHT ENDS
Let's GeSexy With It - Gesicki was our 2nd best pass catching option last year behind DVP. He made some incredible catches and showed vast improvement over his rookie season. Caught the game-winning touchdown Week #17 @ New England. Glad we're getting production out of a 2nd Rounder. So with him, Durham Smythe as another 4th Round asset that's a strictly blocking TE, I don't really see a strong need for a tight end. Our last few tight ends drafted haven't been great. We spent a 5th in 2014 on Arthur Lynch who did nothing for us. Dion Sims in the 4th in 2013 had that game-winning TD vs Atlanta and little else. I still have nightmares of spending a 3rd we got for Brandon Marshall on Michael Egnew. This is a weaker TE class without a stud like Hockenson last year. I don't think Randy Moss' son is gonna be very great at the next level. If I had to pick one, I like the other LSU TE - Stephen Sullivan, with a mid-round pick despite little production due to the fact LSU was just an over-whelmingly stacked team this past year.
TL;DR TEs - We don't need one. I could still see us taking one in the 4th - 6th rounds.
OFFENSIVE LINEMEN
I don't know if he's good, but he plays the position we need! - This happens too often when people talk about fixing the O-line. It's always been an issue on here. People say just draft 5 offensive linemen in the draft and that'll fix it. Sure, how far back do I have to take you to make you realize dumping draft assets on a position doesn't work? Hell, let's do it!
That's the top 5 rounds worth of drafting of O-linemen for Miami in a DECADE. That's 3 1st rounders! Year after year we invested... and with what to show for it? All I'm saying is, be careful what you ask for. I'd love an Andrew Thomas at #18. Mekhi Becton and Jedrick Willis are literal goliaths. But... I'm not going to pretend like I know what the hell I'm watching/grading when it comes to O-linemen. If you go through the draft posts of those players, you'll see all of us get excited about our O-line FINALLY being fixed. The NFL doesn't work that way. You can't just dump resources into an area and win. There needs to be chemistry, proper development, etc... I'd like one in the 2nd Round at minimum to help Ereck Flowers, Ted Karras, and Jesse Davis - but I can't give props for a pick until I see how we do in the regular season. That's all I know about offensive linemen.
TL;DR O-linemen - I can't pretend to know what's good. If we draft 3 O-linemen with some of our Top 70 picks, I still won't be thrilled and think we fixed it. Look how many of our top-tier linemen even dating back to Jake Long just constantly kept getting hurt. We did that for a decade and it didn't. I know this is a different regime but still... be cautious when it comes to celebrating guys nobody really watches when the game is going on.
THIS IS SO LONG IM NOT GONNA READ IT JUST GIVE IT TO ME HOT AND FAST
Players I'd Love To See Us Take 1st Round: Tua Tagovailoa, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Andrew Thomas, JK Dobbins, Jedrick Willis
Players I'd Hate To See Us Take 1st Round: Justin Herbert, D'Andre Swift, Henry Ruggs III, if we pass on Tua I'ma lose my shit
Sorry if this was a little heavy on 1st Rounders, but with the 3 we have I can't help but lean into them. Defense is next!
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CreateYoureReality NFL Wildcard Weekend Analysis and Picks (Also, Final Regular Season Win/Loss and ROI)

CreateYoureReality NFL Wildcard Weekend Analysis and Picks (Also, Final Regular Season Win/Loss and ROI)
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https://preview.redd.it/rvtksaw21t841.jpg?width=698&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=95f40678737a0b6412efeddec62890674d6b9f4c
NFL Regular Season Betting Recap
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Singles 134-141-3 (+12.57u)
Parlays: 9-15 (+85.66u)
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot 0-19 (-19.98u)
Super Big Boy Daddy Long Shot: 0-15 (-7.5u)
Teasers: 7-23 (-39.1u)
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Overall Bet Win/Loss: 150-213
Units Win/Loss: +31.65u
ROI: 8.72%
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Thoughts: Honestly, I thought this season could have gone much better. Of course I am happy with a positive ROI and almost 9% is great but I want double digit ROIs. There are many lessons that I have learned this year that will go into my adjustments of how I make wagers. I am also grateful to collect a ton of notes from this years regular season that I will use as positive adjustments in my algo for next year. I still have the playoffs to push my ROI into the double digits. NBA was the same, went 2.6% ROI in the REG season, and almost 33% ROI in the playoffs to bring the whole season to double digits. Time to get to work on the NFL playoffs and make this double digi happen!
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Saturday Games (AFC)
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Interesting note: Over the last 15 years in the playoffs, the spread didn't matter 82% of the time. If you picked the game winner, they covered over 82%. In the wild card round its 89%!!! Focus on finding the winner.
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Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (-2.5): We have our first game of the weekend and it's the only game where the spread has moved through a key number. This started out as HOU -3 (-3.5 in some spots for a brief opening line) and has moved quickly to settle at -2.5. The other games have moved, but none through a key 3, 4, 6 or 7. My algo has this game as 22.5 BUF to 19.5 HOU. When you add in HFA it pushes this game close to a PK. A huge key for me in this game will be the health of Will Fuller. With him in the offense this year, the Texans are 8-3 and averaged 26 ppg. When he has been out they are 2-3 and average only 19.5 ppg. Houston took week 17 to rest key player. They will look to get a return performance from JJ Watt and hope to have Fuller in to give the offense some depth. Having one less reliable outlet for Watson could be a big piece against a very good Bills pass defense.
On the Buffalo side of the ball they did lose their last game of the regular season, but they were looking ahead to this game, resting most of their key players for the week 17 game. I think this is a prime game for Singletary to show what he brings to the Bills offense as the TEX run D is one of the worst in the playoffs. I will also look to Beasly for a lot of check down and quick slant opportunities.
Obviously most of these games can go either way. With the thought of defense is what wins in the playoffs, I am leaning with the algo and the Bills. I think this is one of the better games to put into a teaser. If you tease the Bills you get the number through the key 3, 4, 6, and 7 numbers. Plus, they Bills have only been defeated by more than a TD one time this season!
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Tennessee at New England (-5.5): This is a really fun one to cap. TEN has arguably been one of the best offenses since Tannehill took over. He is 1st in ypa, and passer rating and they have been putting up mad points behind the running game of Henry and the deep balls to AJ Brown who is averaging 20 yards per reception this season. On the flip side of their offensive play is the argument that they really haven't been tested against a good defense. The only decent D that Tannehill has faced since taking over is the road Saints, and that game script was more shootout heavy. The Pats are sporting top defensive numbers and only allow ~20ppg. However, if you dive deeper into those numbers... They went 8-0 in the first half of the season and allowed only 7.5 ppg. Over the last half of the season they are 4-4 and have allowed almost 29ppg!!!
Oh boy...
So, long story short I spent the last hour or so typing up my TEN/NE write up and I didn't notice my laptop became unplugged in the process. It eventually ran out of juice and crashed before I had updated my draft. I am not going to write it all out again, sorry. I will give a TLDR and you will have the bets I make as a guide for this one.
TLDRetype: The weather channel coincidentally named the storm hitting NE tomorrow "Winter Storm Henry" That, the fact that Henry has been a Beast since Tannehill took over, and Draftkings offering an odds boost at 10-1 (from 5.5-1) for anyone to be the first TD scorer, has me looking his way. Edleman has battled some injuries the last month or so and because of that his targets total is at the good price of 5.5. He has been a reliable security blanket for Brady in the playoffs and looks good to return for this game.
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Sunday Games
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Minnesota at New Orleans (-7.5): Im sorry but after the Minnesota Miracle and then last years no call vs. the Rams....Does anyone else think this is just a year for the NFL to give the glory back to NO and have the lawsuit against them quietly go away??? Seems like a good reason for the Pats to not give a fuck in last weeks game... AGH, OK brain, I know its 3am and half of our article was written and then erased...but lets reign it in and get back to some logic over far fetched conspiracy theories. . .
So I ended up going to sleep there. Probably a good thing, haha.
Back to the game... One of the biggest factors in this game should be the losses of Mackenzie Alexander and Mike Hughes who are both ruled out for this game. This season, Alexander was the best performer of their corners and safetys. The others have been playing below league average. The Vikings do play extremely well vs TEs so that should limit the options for Brees which makes looking at his favorite target all the more appealing. His total is 8.5. This year he has hit 8 or more in 11 out of 16 games. In the 8 games since Brees has returned he has hit that total 5 of those 8. Out of the 3 he missed, one game was by 1 reception, and another game was a week 17 blowout vs. CAR when he wasn't needed but still managed 9 targets.
As for the Vikings props Cook and Theilen have had the most rest recently and if the game script goes in the Saints favor, this could lead to many throwing opportunities for Cousins. Cook when healthy is a beast in all facets of the run game but is a huge help when it comes to the screen game.
Overall, the Saints are wearing their white on white uni's of which they are 5-0 this year. Superstition dictates go with the white. :P ( https://saintswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/03/nfl-playoffs-wild-card-round-saints-vs-vikings-uniform-combination/ )
I will post all my props and picks for this game tomorrow by 2pm.
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Seattle at Philadelphia (+1.5): Didn't we just see this a few weeks ago? PHL hosting SEA, the line opened PHL as a slight favorite, moved through 0 and pushed up to almost 3 around game time. Then SEA came out and won 17-9? It's almost the same spot looking at it from the outside, but looking at how some of the available players for both teams have changed we see a potentially different story. First off, in that game SEA didnt do too much offensively. They essentially rode the back of Penny's 129 yards and a TD rushing on only 14 carries. Both Penny and Carson, the backs that the SEA offense has flowed through, are out for the season and the replacements are old or unknown. Dont get me wrong, I LOVE beastmode and want nothing more than for him to go all "put the team on his back" NSFW LINK, LANGUAGE WARNING ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gd_Vd43Vxa0 ) But to be honest, hes looking a little pudgy. Who knows, maybe his legs are still machines and his pudge will make him even harder to take down! All in all I think the Eagles D is a better match up for the other back, Homer, who is more reliable as a pass catching back. And to be honest, if SEA wants to win this game, I think they are going to have to unleash Wilson. They are going to have to let him be that special player that makes plays with his legs and his arm. Because of this I will most likely be targeting Lockett, Metcaf and maybe Hollister.
On the PHL side all I am hearing is how they won 4 straight to make the playoffs and no one is giving them credit. Well...they won all 4 of those games against NFC east teams. Essentially the worst division this year and two of those games were against the same team. One of which they had to generate a huuuuge comeback in a game they were heavily favored. Also, they only made the playoffs because someone from each division has to represent...So how much love can we really give them for their 4 straight wins.
So much of this game for the Eagles is going to depend on the injury reports. I am going to end the article here but wait to update tomorrow with injuries and props chosen for this game. Check back @ 2pm on Sunday.
I have 35u of Bonus to use on from Wildcard Reload Promos and Refer-a-friend promos. Most likely won't use all this weekend, they are good for a month.
Post Season Bets
Singles(0-0)
  • Devin Singletary 85.5 Rush and Rec Yards Over (0.55u to win 0.5u)
  • Cole Beasley 51.5 Rec Yards Over (1.25u to win 1u)
  • Josh Allen 34.5 Rush Yards Over (1.1u to win 1u)
  • Dawson Knox 23.5 Rec Yards Over (1u to win 1.1u)
  • Derrick Henry to score first TD (1u to win 10u)
  • Edleman 5.5 Rec Over (1.1u to win 1u)
  • John Brown & DeAndre Hopkins each to record 80 or more receiving yards & 1 or more receiving touchdowns (2u to win 57u) This is just a fun sweat. I actually think Beasly and Singletary will get more usage and Hopkins will be shadowed by White, but 28.5-1 in a playoff game with both teams number one deep threats seems fun.
  • A.J. Brown & Julian Edelman each to record 100 or more receiving yards & 1 or more receiving touchdowns (0.99u to win 52.29u) Essentially the same analysis. Fun sweat. Playoff teams. This one I think actually has a slightly better chance even thought the odds are much greater. TEN runs play action as the basis of most of their deep balls. Brown has been on point with that this year. Edelman is Brady's most trusted and longest tenured post season WR. Hey, maybe Brown breaks one for 70 and a TD early, thus allowing Edelman the opportunities to cover late as the Pats come back. Let the sweat begin! :D
Parlays (0-0)
  • Buf +8.5, NE ml, NO ml, SEA +6 (0u to win 48.73u) FB
  • NE ml, Beasley 51.5 Rec Yards Over, NO 1H ml, SEA ml (0u to win 31.4u) FB
  • Allen 34.5 Rush Yards Over, Edelman 64.5 Rec Yards Over, Thomas 8.5 Rec Over, MetCalf 3.5 Rec Over (0u to win 45u) FB
Threw some of the Bonus money on Parlays. Why not start off the playoffs with a big boost! :D
Big Boy Daddy Long Shot (0-0)
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Teasers (0-0)
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Futures: This is for fun, I don't recommend futures often, especially this late as it's hard to get a good price.
  • Saints to beat the Chiefs in the SB (1u to win 18u)
  • Saints to beat the Patriots in the SB (0.5u to win 20u)
  • Patriots to beat the Saints in SB (0.5u to win 25u)
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I'm posting now so it's out with enough time for everyone to read and use. Check back in the comments if you want to follow along gametime parlays I make.
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Thanks for reading and good luck to all!! :D
submitted by CreateYoureReality to CreateYoureReality [link] [comments]

best prop bets nfl week 17 video

This week 17 NFL parlay brings back $416.08 for every $100 risked at Bovada. None of these wagers individually return plus money, so you’re getting a considerable boost by just combining them in a parlay. If you want to place some other bets, get some extra week 17 NFL betting advice via the links below. Week 17 NFL player props, best bets, picks, predictions: Davante Adams goes over 88.5 receiving yards CBS Sports Staff 1/2/2021 Super Bowl parties a non-starter as COVID-19 surge continues Winning Prop Bets For Week 17. January 2. share. ... some of the best values on the final weekend can be found in individual player props. ... Get more from National Football League Add to your ... Minty Bets, Jared Quay & Matt Harmon debate a few prop bets for Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season. With the bonus point, I finished Week 16 with an 11-4 record (73 percent). Without further ado, I take my 99-106 record for the season (48.3 percent) and dive into the best prop bets for Week 17. All props are from DraftKings. Sign up today with my code and make a $25 deposit to receive a free $25 bet! Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions The roller coaster that has been the NFL regular season comes to an end on Sunday. Week 17 brings us a whole lot of uncertainty, with many teams either resting their players for the playoffs, or looking forward to the long offseason. When considering Week 17 player props, it’s best to key in on players in more certain situations. Best NFL Player Prop Bets – Week 17, 2020. By Noah Davis in NFL December 31, 2020 2:11 pm PST . Share: Share. Tweet. The final week of the 2020 NFL regular season arrives on Sunday. It’s a massive main slate, with a lot of games to bet on and plenty of in-game action to attract bettors. Before you make any prop bets for Week 17 of the NFL season, you NEED to see what SportsLine expert Jen Ryan has to say. A fantasy football guru who also is a frequent guest on Football Diehards' show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, Ryan has been a finalist for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association's Best Football Series award and uses Vegas lines to make Fantasy decisions in both redraft ... Best Week 17 NFL Player Props Bets. ... finish off the NFL season in style with another pair of positive player prop picks. ... 30 attempts each week, which ranks them seventh in the NFL. LA runs ... Our favorite NFL best bets and player props for Week 17, updated daily leading up to Sunday's kickoff. The latest news and best Week 17 prop plays.

best prop bets nfl week 17 top

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best prop bets nfl week 17

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