Dear Reddit. I have started writing a book of short stories about my life as a hobo. True to my nature of blowing money faster than it came, or blowing the opportunity of even making it, I love you assholes and will let you read the book for free as I write it from the beginning. Enjoy
Chapter One: Bozeman or Bust (lots of bust) I had done it once again, like so many other years before, by traveling north to one of the harshest and coldest states that a hobo could possibly go to during the dead of winter, late-January 2021: Mon-fucking-tana. Or as the locals jokingly say, "Montucky". (edit: Shout-out to Montucky Cold Snacks, the cheap horse-piss watered down beer that is Montana's equivalent of Washington's "Rainier Ale" or Oregon's "Session Lager"). I digress. If I was a goose, I'd surely be the Jonathan Livingston Seagull of the flock…the black sheep shitshow of a goose flying in the completely wrong direction at the worst time of the year. As forementioned, this was not the first time, nor second time, that I've done this. In fact, it's become a habit, if not straight-up routine. Laramie, Wyoming circa November 2016. Glendive, Montana circa January 2015 Minot, North Dakota circa January 2014. Yukon, Canada circa November 2013. Bellingham, Washington circa January 2006. The list goes on, and on, and on… And here I am. Bozeman Fucking Montana, circa January-February 2021. The locals say it's an unusually warm winter, which by Montana's standards might include 5 inches of snow in the afternoon and temperatures dropping below 10F degrees at night. However, according to the high standards of a low-class hobo born and raised on the Gulf Coast of Alabama, this weather is colder than a witches tit. Now, that's not to say that I ain't prepared though. I assure you that I am. Sixteen years of living on the road and rails has made this black goose a well-seasoned bird, with all the trimmings. I have a military sleeping bag that can keep me alive down to negative 30 temperatures. My military backpack is waterproof, and so are the snowboarding pants that I wear under my insulated Carharrt overalls. I have alpaca wool thermal pants, merino wool socks, thermolite waterproof boots, thinsulated gloves, and several wool and polyster beanie hats. My dual-layer mountaineering tent can withstand hurricane-force winds and all the snow that a blizzard can muster. Winter? Montana? Bring it bitch. Hit me with your best shot. You know I like it. wink Sigh. However, DESPITE the freezing temperatures and shit tons of snow, there's a lil secret that I've learned during my many years of traveling, and that secret is certainly DUE to these wintery conditions: Jobs! Lots and lots and lots and lots of jobs! Jobs here, jobs there, jobs every-fucking-where. Hotel jobs, restaurant jobs, retail jobs, construction jobs, maintenance jobs, driving jobs, even jobs just to help other people get more damn jobs! You want a job during winter? Well they got jobs out northern Californie way, Oregonie way, Montanie way, Washingtonie way, North and South Dakotie way, and every which way can go above above the Mason-Dixon line! If you can't find a damn job in the Northwestern United States of America during winter, you ain't fucking looking, and that's a fact. If you got one arm and you can swing a hammer, or punch a number on a cash register, then consider yourself hired on the spot and you can start today. Before this chapter turns into an entire damn book of its own (A Hobo's Guide to Finding Jobs) let's get back to the story here: Bozeman or Bust. As I begin this chapter, I have a red-wine hangover that is enough to drive me to a bullet in the head. I made a pot of coffee only to puke it back up on my hands and knees in front the porcelain thrown. I think it was good ole Earnest Hemingway that once said "Write Drunk, Edit Sober". Experienced words of wisdom from a fine man that knew everything a man could possibly know about drinking shit tons of wine and writing shit tons of stories. I wouldn't be lying if I was to confess that Mr. Hemingway, along with Mr. Steinbeck and Mr. Twain, are drunken heroes of mine that I could only hope someday to sit alongside in the bookstores of Hell and Hades with a gallon of cheap Merlot. Salut, gentleman. After puking, rolling cigarettes, drinking coffee, and puking several times more, I was finally able to sit down to try and remember what-the-fuck happened yesterday; a solemn meditation technique that involves tons of coffee and contemplation; a time to worship the asinine achievements that are accompanied in both rejoice and regret. Yesterday started off sober as a saint. I had a job interview at this place I had found on craigslist, some place looking for fresh warm bodies to fill up their production-assembly line. I took a bus to the address they had given me, which ended up being the adress to the Bozeman City Bank. "A bank?", I thought, as I wondered around the parking lot dumbfounded and confused for a solid 5 minutes, checking the address several times on my phone, wondering why on earth I've been sent to a state bank. After circling the parking lot, I noticed a door on the side of the bank that said "Job Choices Employment Services: Second Floor". Godammit. I had been fucking conned. Fucking craigslist. I know what's going on here…this a goddamn employment agency that wants to take 10-15 percent of my paycheck, take away my rights to healthcare and benefits, in the so-called promise of finding me a "great career path of opportunity". Employment agencies. Just like rats. The only "opportunity" here was them: Creatures of opportunity, parasites hellbent on scavaging peoples money and benefits. "A not-even-close-to-great career path of 9-5 slave-labor bullshit involving years of suckling away your mind, body, and spirit", the sign on the door should have read. This was definitely a mistake. And anyone that has ever had the unfortunate pleasure of being with me can you tell one thing about me: I fucking love mistakes. I love making them, and I love learning from them. I am a walking-talking connoisseur of mistakes. In fact, I just made a mistake trying to spell connoisseur, so I asked Google "Hey Google, spell connoisseur", and due to lack of interpreting my Alabama accent, Google made the mistake of showing me the word Coitus. I have now learned that the word "coitus" is another word for sex. As a writer and the son of an English teacher, I love learning new words. As a human male, I love sex. So learning a new word for "sex" is a fantastic trade-off for that fortunate mistake! I digress. I decided to walk into the bank, up the stairs to the second floor, and down the hall to the employment agency. A well-dressed and very sexy debutant by the name of Tracy stood up and greeted me with a smile that was formal, professional, and admittedly very sexy. While my dirty mind started playing cheap porn music, along with vivid images of me and Tracy wrecking that office like wild alleycats, I was suddenly snapped back into reality with Tracy's sexy voice, saying: "Hey, you must be Mr. Huck! Are you here for the 3:00 o'clock interview? Could you please start by filling out this application? You can have a seat over at the desk here"… Godammit. This employment agency was GOOD. I was Tracy's submissive little slut. I walked right where Tracy told me to walk, sat right in the chair Tracy pulled out for me to sit in, and I started filling out the application with the ballpoint pen that Tracy had somehow put in my hand without me even realizing it. Tracy could have stolen my wallet and the 11 dollars inside of it as well, had she wanted to, and I wouldn't have even noticed. And even if I had noticed, I would have let her do it anyway. Godammit! As I started to fill out the application, I got to the section I dreaded most: job references. Oh boy…allow me to tell you a little about Huck's references, or lacktherof: At my last job, I was fired because of a fight that broke-out between my ex-girlfriend and myself, which began with lots of shouting and shoving, and ended with me getting a black-eye from being punched in the face twice. Fun fact: Italian women are fiery as they are fierce, and bold as they are beautiful. And just like their male Italian counterparts, such as Sylvester Stalone or Al Capone, they know how to land a solid right jab. This fight erupted in the worker's dormitory for all employees to hear and see. And although I was the one with the swollen black eye, I was the one they decided to fire. C'est la vie, such is life. Que sera sera, it be what it fucking be. We can scratch that job off as a reference, without a doubt. The job before that, I was at a marijuana farm called "Great American Cannabis", in which my managers and co-workers tried to recruit me into a far-right group of sexist and racist baboons called "The Proud Boys". There was a pre-determining factor in why that farm had hired me, and assumed I would be interested in their idealogical gang. That pre-determing factor was the very same factor that led Google to teaching me the wrong word and definition: my Alabama accent. Great American Cannabis had hired me based on a phone interview, in which they assumed my southern accent indicated two things, in which case one of their assumptions was right, and one was wrong: Assumption Numero Uno: Huck has an Alabama accent, which therefore indicates that he has years of experience working on farms, growing plants, and being an honest and hard-worker. Assumption Numero Dos: Huck has an Alabama accent, therefore he must be idealogically aligned with far-right beliefs including sexism and racism. Welp, I am proud to say that even that although a 50% winning percentage may be fine and dandy with gambling in Vegas, and can be seen as half full or half empty based on however optimisitic or pessimistic you might be, in the case of Great American Cannabis and The Proud Boys, those odds ended pretty badly. As it turns out, despite being raised by a racist father and surrounded by bigotry in the not-so-sweet home of Alabama, those very dispositions made this black sheep child rebel from such ass-backward beliefs, and I am staunchly pro-civil rights, which means I am pro-immigration, and a proud supporter of the sufferage movement for womens right. Obviously, that did not go very well with my co-workers at the farm, and I was fired within the first month. But wait, theres more tragic humor to the story of this farm, which I'll organize in two keypoints: Keypoint Numero Uno: The farm was owned by Iranian immigrants. I…shit…you…not. That's right. YOU DID READ THAT CORRECTLY. Not only was the farm owned and managed by a minority group of immigrants, those very immigrants came directly from the very country is at the VERY TOP of White-America's shitlist: Iran. Keypoint Numeros Dos: After I was fired based almost entirely according to my leftist and progressive views on race and gender equality, within just a couple of weeks nearly everybody on the farm was fired and replaced by cheaper immigrant labor in the form of Laotian women. That's right…a white-blooded American-born legal-working male, was replaced by brown-blooded, foreign-born, mostly-illegal-working females, on a farm owned and managed by right-wing racists and sexists that were anti-immigration. Once again, I…shit…you…fucking…not...let THAT shit sink in. I literally cannot make this shit up, and let it be forever proof that reality, however tragic or ironic it may be, is far greater than fiction. You can write that last sentence in a letter, shove that puppy in an envelope, slap that bitch with a stamp, and mail it to the fucking MOON. Or you can mail it to Iran, or Laos, whichever you prefer. However, I digress. So, being that I was fired from Great American Cannabis by a bunch of Iranian Proud Boys, you can scratch that job off of the "reference" list as well. Sigh. So, how about the job before that? Well, that's a hell of a story too, but I'll make it quick and cut shorter to the chase: I worked on a fishing boat for a Mormon captain. Although I loved him like a Dad, and he often treated me like a son, my job ended in these words: "Huck, I really like you. You're one of the hardest working deckhands I've ever had, despite it being a very terrible year for fishing. However, as a man that is a Latter Day Saint of God, as a Mormon, I'm going to have to ask you to leave because of three reasons: 1) You smoke cigarettes, marijuana, and drink alcohol and coffee. 2) You curse worse than a sailor. 3) You are an atheist/agnostic." And in case you, the reader did not know: Mormons HATE cigarettes, marijuana, alcohol, AND coffee. They are forbidden to curse, and they are not even allowed to tolerate the company of anyone that isn't a believer in God. Well Godammit. How in the hell am I so goddamn misfortunate and unlucky, to be the must FIRST FUCKING PERSON in the entire HISTORY OF FISHING, that has gotten fired for using curse words and drinking whiskey. I couldn't even absorb the fact that my boss was firing me because I couldn't get over the fact that I was possibly the first sailor or fisherman in all of ocean-faring humanity that had gotten fired for doing what sailors and fisherman are guaranteed and known to do best: drinkin' and cursin' We can also scratch THAT job off the possible reference list as well. It was at this point in the office of Job Choices Bozeman that the porn music had long since stopped playing in my head, and that I suddenly and swiftly fell deeply into a full blown existential crisis right there in Tracy's office while simply trying to think of a single reference from my last 3 jobs. The unbelievable amount of misfortune, tragedy, irony, and utter insanity of my last 3 job experiences had truly started to sink in, and I was beginning to legitimately lose my temporary grasp on sanity along with my faith in humanity altogether in one great, big, sloppy sandwich of existential fucking crisis. Allow me to self-diagnose this existential crisis sandwich by peeling off some of the layers of this enormous stinking onion that is in the middle of it all: Either that curse that was put on me a few years ago by a Mexican trainhopping gypsy from New Orleans is proof that curses are indeed fucking real, or either I am the unluckiest son of a bitch on this entire planet that is so very unlucky that I am slowly (or quickly) coming to the conclusion that this entire life is a simulation that is programmed by some sick comedic asshole that specializes in the tragedies of both irony AND misfortune. And though some people in this world call that programmer God or Allah or Jehovah, I call him Jeff. I call him "Jeff in Programming", with same amount of disdain and hatred that Michael Scott refers to "Toby in Human Resources" in the American version of the show "The Office". (Sidenote: If you do not understand my last reference because you have not watched The Office, then you need to stop reading this book right now, go sign up for one month of Netflix, and spend that entire month binge-watching one of the greatest sitcoms ever made in the history of television: The Office (US Version). Go. Now!) I digress. As I collapsed into a full-blown existential crisis while thinking of job references on the second floor employment services office above Montana State Bank, my fantasy-based relationship with Tracy was also about to crumble into an existential crisis as well, based on two very important qualities: Quality Numero Uno: Tracy and I had no relationship that actually existed outside of my head and a stupid job application form. We had never knocked over all of the filing cabinets, water-cooler, or broken the copying machine with tantric sex. That scenario never existed period. Quality Numeros Dos: I was about to not only lie, but also commit non-existent adultery to Tracy, thus putting a very real end to a not-very-real relationship. I stood up from the desk that me and Tracy had never fucked on, and I told Tracy that I had to use the bathroom. And though I did really have to use the bathroom, it wasn't for the purpose of pissing or taking a shit, it was for the purpose of throwing the application in the toilet and sneaking my way down the hallway and out of the employment agency. In which case, that is precisely what I did. Upon stepping out of the door and back into the parking lot of Bozeman City Bank, I noticed another hot little woman across the street: A dazzling red-headed freckle-faced damsel by the name of Wendy, who promised in her fertile bosom the birth of two-dollar cheeseburgers and loaded baked potatoes. I went inside Wendy's house, and began to have an oral relationship by penetrating my mouth with nearly everything that was offered on Wendy's dollar-value menu. Stop here, acquire coffee, booze, and cigarettes until I feel like writing again, which may be later tonight, tomorrow morning, or possibly fucking never
How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All
TL:DR: yes its long. Grab a beer.
Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brother plotted to corner the global silver market. Sure, back in 1980, Bunker, his younger brother Herbert, and other members of the Hunt clan owned roughly two-thirds of all the privately held silver on earth. But the historic stockpiling of bullion hadn’t been a ploy to manipulate the market, they and their sizable legal team would insist in the following years. Instead, it was a strategy to hedge against the voracious inflation of the 1970s—a monumental bet against the U.S. dollar. Whatever the motive, it was a bet that went historically sour. The debt-fueled boom and bust of the global silver market not only decimated the Hunt fortune, but threatened to take down the U.S. financial system. The panic of “Silver Thursday” took place over 35 years ago, but it still raises questions about the nature of financial manipulation. While many view the Hunt brothers as members of a long succession of white collar crooks, from Charles Ponzi to Bernie Madoff, others see the endearingly eccentric Texans as the victims of overstepping regulators and vindictive insiders who couldn’t stand the thought of being played by a couple of southern yokels. In either case, the story of the Hunt brothers just goes to show how difficult it can be to distinguish illegal market manipulation from the old fashioned wheeling and dealing that make our markets work. The Real-Life Ewings Whatever their foibles, the Hunts make for an interesting cast of characters. Evidently CBS thought so; the family is rumored to be the basis for the Ewings, the fictional Texas oil dynasty of Dallas fame. Sitting at the top of the family tree was H.L. Hunt, a man who allegedly purchased his first oil field with poker winnings and made a fortune drilling in east Texas. H.L. was a well-known oddball to boot, and his sons inherited many of their father’s quirks. For one, there was the stinginess. Despite being the richest man on earth in the 1960s, Bunker Hunt (who went by his middle name), along with his younger brothers Herbert (first name William) and Lamar, cultivated an image as unpretentious good old boys. They drove old Cadillacs, flew coach, and when they eventually went to trial in New York City in 1988, they took the subway. As one Texas editor was quoted in the New York Times, Bunker Hunt was “the kind of guy who orders chicken-fried steak and Jello-O, spills some on his tie, and then goes out and buys all the silver in the world.” Cheap suits aside, the Hunts were not without their ostentation. At the end of the 1970s, Bunker boasted a stable of over 500 horses and his little brother Lamar owned the Kansas City Chiefs. All six children of H.L.’s first marriage (the patriarch of the Hunt family had fifteen children by three women before he died in 1974) lived on estates befitting the scions of a Texas billionaire. These lifestyles were financed by trusts, but also risky investments in oil, real estate, and a host of commodities including sugar beets, soybeans, and, before long, silver. The Hunt brothers also inherited their father’s political inclinations. A zealous anti-Communist, Bunker Hunt bankrolled conservative causes and was a prominent member of the John Birch Society, a group whose founder once speculated that Dwight Eisenhower was a “dedicated, conscious agent” of Soviet conspiracy. In November of 1963, Hunt sponsored a particularly ill-timed political campaign, which distributed pamphlets around Dallas condemning President Kennedy for alleged slights against the Constitution on the day that he was assassinated. JFK conspiracy theorists have been obsessed with Hunt ever since. In fact, it was the Hunt brand of politics that partially explains what led Bunker and Herbert to start buying silver in 1973. Hard Money The 1970s were not kind to the U.S. dollar. Years of wartime spending and unresponsive monetary policy pushed inflation upward throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. Then, in October of 1973, war broke out in the Middle East and an oil embargo was declared against the United States. Inflation jumped above 10%. It would stay high throughout the decade, peaking in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution at an annual average of 13.5% in 1980. Over the same period of time, the global monetary system underwent a historic transformation. Since the first Roosevelt administration, the U.S. dollar had been pegged to the value of gold at a predictable rate of $35 per ounce. But in 1971, President Nixon, responding to inflationary pressures, suspended that relationship. For the first time in modern history, the paper dollar did not represent some fixed amount of tangible, precious metal sitting in a vault somewhere. For conservative commodity traders like the Hunts, who blamed government spending for inflation and held grave reservations about the viability of fiat currency, the perceived stability of precious metal offered a financial safe harbor. It was illegal to trade gold in the early 1970s, so the Hunts turned to the next best thing. 📷
As an investment, there was a lot to like about silver. The Hunts were not alone in fleeing to bullion amid all the inflation and geopolitical turbulence, so the price was ticking up. Plus, light-sensitive silver halide is a key component of photographic film. With the growth of the consumer photography market, new production from mines struggled to keep up with demand. And so, in 1973, Bunker and Herbert bought over 35 million ounces of silver, most of which they flew to Switzerland in specifically designed airplanes guarded by armed Texas ranch hands. According to one source, the Hunt’s purchases were big enough to move the global market. But silver was not the Hunts' only speculative venture in the 1970s. Nor was it the only one that got them into trouble with regulators. Soy Before Silver In 1977, the price of soybeans was rising fast. Trade restrictions on Brazil and growing demand from China made the legume a hot commodity, and both Bunker and Herbert decided to enter the futures market in April of that year. A future is an agreement to buy or sell some quantity of a commodity at an agreed upon price at a later date. If someone contracts to buy soybeans in the future (they are said to take the “long” position), they will benefit if the price of soybeans rise, since they have locked in the lower price ahead of time. Likewise, if someone contracts to sell (that’s called the “short” position), they benefit if the price falls, since they have locked in the old, higher price. While futures contracts can be used by soybean farmers and soy milk producers to guard against price swings, most futures are traded by people who wouldn’t necessarily know tofu from cream cheese. As a de facto insurance contract against market volatility, futures can be used to hedge other investments or simply to gamble on prices going up (by going long) or down (by going short). When the Hunts decided to go long in the soybean futures market, they went very, very long. Between Bunker, Herbert, and the accounts of five of their children, the Hunts collectively purchased the right to buy one-third of the entire autumn soybean harvest of the United States. To some, it appeared as if the Hunts were attempting to corner the soybean market. In its simplest version, a corner occurs when someone buys up all (or at least, most) of the available quantity of a commodity. This creates an artificial shortage, which drives up the price, and allows the market manipulator to sell some of his stockpile at a higher profit. Futures markets introduce some additional complexity to the cornerer’s scheme. Recall that when a trader takes a short position on a contract, he or she is pledging to sell a certain amount of product to the holder of the long position. But if the holder of the long position just so happens to be sitting on all the readily available supply of the commodity under contract, the short seller faces an unenviable choice: go scrounge up some of the very scarce product in order to “make delivery” or just pay the cornerer a hefty premium and nullify the deal entirely. In this case, the cornerer is actually counting on the shorts to do the latter, says Craig Pirrong, professor of finance at the University of Houston. If too many short sellers find that it actually costs less to deliver the product, the market manipulator will be stuck with warehouses full of inventory. Finance experts refer to selling the all the excess supply after building a corner as “burying the corpse.” “That is when the price collapses,” explains Pirrong. “But if the number of deliveries isn’t too high, the loss from selling at the low price after the corner is smaller than the profit from selling contracts at the high price.” 📷
The Chicago Board of Trade trading floor. Photo credit:Jeremy Kemp
Even so, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found that a single family from Texas had contracted to buy a sizable portion of the 1977 soybean crop, they did not accuse the Hunts of outright market manipulation. Instead, noting that the Hunts had exceeded the 3 million bushel aggregate limit on soybean holdings by about 20 million, the CFTC noted that the Hunt’s “excessive holdings threaten disruption of the market and could cause serious injury to the American public.” The CFTC ordered the Hunts to sell and to pay a penalty of $500,000. Though the Hunts made tens of millions of dollars on paper while soybean prices skyrocketed, it’s unclear whether they were able to cash out before the regulatory intervention. In any case, the Hunts were none too pleased with the decision. “Apparently the CFTC is trying to repeal the law of supply and demand,” Bunker complained to the press. Silver Thursday Despite the run in with regulators, the Hunts were not dissuaded. Bunker and Herbert had eased up on silver after their initial big buy in 1973, but in the fall of 1979, they were back with a vengeance. By the end of the year, Bunker and Herbert owned 21 million ounces of physical silver each. They had even larger positions in the silver futures market: Bunker was long on 45 million ounces, while Herbert held contracts for 20 million. Their little brother Lamar also had a more “modest” position. By the new year, with every dollar increase in the price of silver, the Hunts were making $100 million on paper. But unlike most investors, when their profitable futures contracts expired, they took delivery. As in 1973, they arranged to have the metal flown to Switzerland. Intentional or not, this helped create a shortage of the metal for industrial supply. Naturally, the industrialists were unhappy. From a spot price of around $6 per ounce in early 1979, the price of silver shot up to $50.42 in January of 1980. In the same week, silver futures contracts were trading at $46.80. Film companies like Kodak saw costs go through the roof, while the British film producer, Ilford, was forced to lay off workers. Traditional bullion dealers, caught in a squeeze, cried foul to the commodity exchanges, and the New York jewelry house Tiffany & Co. took out a full page ad in the New York Times slamming the “unconscionable” Hunt brothers. They were right to single out the Hunts; in mid-January, they controlled 69% of all the silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York. 📷
But as the high prices persisted, new silver began to come out of the woodwork. “In the U.S., people rifled their dresser drawers and sofa cushions to find dimes and quarters with silver content and had them melted down,” says Pirrong, from the University of Houston. “Silver is a classic part of a bride’s trousseau in India, and when prices got high, women sold silver out of their trousseaus.” According to a Washington Post article published that March, the D.C. police warned residents of a rash of home burglaries targeting silver. Unfortunately for the Hunts, all this new supply had a predictable effect. Rather than close out their contracts, short sellers suddenly found it was easier to get their hands on new supplies of silver and deliver. “The main factor that has caused corners to fail [throughout history] is that the manipulator has underestimated how much will be delivered to him if he succeeds [at] raising the price to artificial levels,” says Pirrong. “Eventually, the Hunts ran out of money to pay for all the silver that was thrown at them.” In financial terms, the brothers had a large corpse on their hands—and no way to bury it. This proved to be an especially big problem, because it wasn’t just the Hunt fortune that was on the line. Of the $6.6 billion worth of silver the Hunts held at the top of the market, the brothers had “only” spent a little over $1 billion of their own money. The rest was borrowed from over 20 banks and brokerage houses. At the same time, COMEX decided to crack down. On January 7, 1980, the exchange’s board of governors announced that it would cap the size of silver futures exposure to 3 million ounces. Those in excess of the cap (say, by the tens of millions) were given until the following month to bring themselves into compliance. But that was too long for the Chicago Board of Trade exchange, which suspended the issue of any new silver futures on January 21. Silver futures traders would only be allowed to square up old contracts. Predictably, silver prices began to slide. As the various banks and other firms that had backed the Hunt bullion binge began to recognize the tenuousness of their financial position, they issued margin calls, asking the brothers to put up more money as collateral for their debts. The Hunts, unable to sell silver lest they trigger a panic, borrowed even more. By early March, futures contracts had fallen to the mid-$30 range. Matters finally came to a head on March 25, when one of the Hunts’ largest backers, the Bache Group, asked for $100 million more in collateral. The brothers were out of cash, and Bache was unwilling to accept silver in its place, as it had been doing throughout the month. With the Hunts in default, Bache did the only thing it could to start recouping its losses: it start to unload silver. On March 27, “Silver Thursday,” the silver futures market dropped by a third to $10.80. Just two months earlier, these contracts had been trading at four times that amount. The Aftermath After the oil bust of the early 1980s and a series of lawsuits polished off the remainder of the Hunt brothers’ once historic fortune, the two declared bankruptcy in 1988. Bunker, who had been worth an estimated $16 billion in the 1960s, emerged with under $10 million to his name. That’s not exactly chump change, but it wasn’t enough to maintain his 500-plus stable of horses,. The Hunts almost dragged their lenders into bankruptcy too—and with them, a sizable chunk of the U.S. financial system. Over twenty financial institutions had extended over a billion dollars in credit to the Hunt brothers. The default and resulting collapse of silver prices blew holes in balance sheets across Wall Street. A privately orchestrated bailout loan from a number of banks allowed the brothers to start paying off their debts and keep their creditors afloat, but the markets and regulators were rattled. Silver Spot Prices Per Ounce (January, 1979 - June, 1980) 📷
In the words of then CFTC chief James Stone, the Hunts’ antics had threatened to punch a hole in the “financial fabric of the United States” like nothing had in decades. Writing about the entire episode a year later, Harper’s Magazine described Silver Thursday as “the first great panic since October 1929.” The trouble was not over for the Hunts. In the following years, the brothers were dragged before Congressional hearings, got into a legal spat with their lenders, and were sued by a Peruvian mineral marketing company, which had suffered big losses in the crash. In 1988, a New York City jury found for the South American firm, levying a penalty of over $130 million against the Hunts and finding that they had deliberately conspired to corner the silver market. Surprisingly, there is still some disagreement on that point. Bunker Hunt attributed the whole affair to the political motives of COMEX insiders and regulators. Referring to himself later as “a favorite whipping boy” of an eastern financial establishment riddled with liberals and socialists, Bunker and his brother, Herbert, are still perceived as martyrs by some on the far-right. “Political and financial insiders repeatedly changed the rules of the game,” wrote the New American. “There is little evidence to support the ‘corner the market’ narrative.” Though the Hunt brothers clearly amassed a staggering amount of silver and silver derivatives at the end of the 1970s, it is impossible to prove definitively that market manipulation was in their hearts. Maybe, as the Hunts always claimed, they just really believed in the enduring value of silver. Or maybe, as others have noted, the Hunt brothers had no idea what they were doing. Call it the stupidity defense. “They’re terribly unsophisticated,” an anonymous associated was quoted as saying of the Hunts in a Chicago Tribune article from 1989. “They make all the mistakes most other people make,” said another. p.s. credit to Ben Christopher
A Draft Pick, Free Agent Signing and Trade Target for all 32 teams
Title says it all. Going to suggest a player to be drafted in either the first or second round (or third for HOU at the moment) for each team, along with a player to target in free agency, and a player to potentially trade for. Trying to avoid overlap as best I can, but some may have similar targets. Resources used include PFF, The Draft Network, and OverTheCap. Enjoy!
Arizona Cardinals (8-8)
Trade Target: DT J.J. Watt, Houston Texans - The last deal between Arizona and Houston worked out well. Why not try again and add a serious piece to their pass rushing arsenal in Watt. An ideal interior fit for Arizona, Watt would help them push for the playoffs in his final seasons in the league. Draft Pick: C Creed Humphrey, Oklahoma - Reuniting Kyler Murray with his old center for the Sooners would be an excellent move. The Cardinals currently have Mason Cole at center, but could easily slide him over to guard to make room for Humphrey if they wanted a significant upgrade at an underrated position. Free Agent Signing: TE Jonnu Smith, Tennessee Titans - Arizona would be wise to look at adding Jonnu Smith into the equation on offense. One of the NFL's best after the catch at the TE position, he'd be another fun weapon to slot alongside Murray and Hopkins.
Atlanta Falcons (4-12)
Trade Target: S Tracy Walker, Detroit Lions - With a new regime coming in, Detroit is headed towards an extended rebuild, and acquiring assets for up-and-down players like Walker could be a consideration. Now, still young, Walker has plenty of potential for the Falcons, and if the price is right, could be a tremendous bargain. Draft Pick: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State - While Matt Ryan will remain the QB of the Falcons next season, due to his contract, the Falcons should plan for the future and add a Georgia native in Fields, one of the better QB's out of college football in recent years. He'd be able to develop behind Ryan under the tutelage of new head coach Arthur Smith. Free Agent Signing: CB Mackensie Alexander, Cincinnati Bengals - The Falcons do not have positive cap space at the moment (currently projected $30 million over the limit) so even after reworking deals and cutting some players, they'll be bargain shopping more than anything else. PFF projects Alexander to fetch a deal of about 2-years, $6 million, which could be feasible for the Falcons. He'd be a solid veteran presence across from CB A.J. Terrell.
Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
Trade Target: OLB Whitney Mercilus, Houston - I list him in "trade target" as he's technically under contract in Houston going into 2021. However, it's 99% more likely that the Texans cut him and Baltimore pursues him as a newly released free agent. Kind of cheating on my listings, but I like the idea of Mercilus in Baltimore after Houston cuts him. It'd be a coup for Houston if they could get a pick for him. Mercilus is a veteran pass rusher who could step into a role in Baltimore should OLB Matt Judon depart for greener pastures...green meaning money of course. Draft Pick: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota - The idea of Bateman in Baltimore remains one of my favorite potential pairings for any player likely to be selected in the first round of the draft. Similar to Keenan Allen in my opinion, Bateman could become the go-to wide receiver the Ravens lacked last season. Free Agent Signing: G Jon Feliciano, Buffalo Bills - The Ravens need to bolster the middle of their offensive line, and a tough veteran like Feliciano could be ideal target for the Ravens. With a big contract committed to LT Ronnie Staley, a cheaper veteran like Feliciano could match price tag with talent. Good value for the Ravens.
Buffalo Bills (13-3)
Trade Target: DT Malcom Brown, New Orleans Saints - The Saints are in cap space purgatory, and thus could be looking to offload some decent players like Brown simply to get back under the cap. He's a solid starting DT who could be available for cheap in the Saints push to real in their financial situation. A strong fit next to Ed Oliver on the inside. Draft Pick: LB Chazz Surratt, North Carolina - Given their limited cap space, the Bills may have to decide between re-signing OT Daryl Williams and LB Matt Milano. If so, a replacement like Surratt could be a smart move for Sean McDermott and co. as Surratt is a quick backer who excels in space and has shown plenty of promise in coverage. Free Agent Signing: DE Romeo Okwara, Detroit Lions - The Bills aren't loaded with cap space (barely above 0 if the cap stays down at $175 million), but I'd imagine they'll find some ways to free some cap up. If they do, they may want to consider Okwara, a rising pass-rusher, as a replacement for some of their own departing edge rushers. He tallied 10 sacks this season after hitting 7.5 sacks in 2018 in Detroit. While not elite, Okwara's likely a solid value pass-rusher for a contender like the Bills.
Carolina Panthers (5-11)
Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - The Panthers just drafted DT Derrick Brown, but pairing him and Hicks together could become a dominant duo in the middle of that defense. And with DT Kawann Short a likely cut candidate, Hicks could be an instant upgrade for Carolina. Draft Pick: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State - Forget the QB position, if the Panthers have the opportunity to land Parsons at 8th overall, they should pull the trigger. He'd be an immediate boost of speed, instincts and athleticism into their linebacker corps, a strong replacement for Luke Kuechly. Free Agent Signing: TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Rams - More of a move tight end than a traditional in-line blocker, Everett could be an exceptional value signing for someone, as he's not likely to command as much money as Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith, but is a very good player himself.
Chicago Bears (8-8)
Trade Target: QB Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers - Unless the Bears are set to bring back Mitch Trubisky, who played a bit better to end the season but still not strong enough, the Bears should look at the veteran QB market. While Garoppolo has had some injury issues, he's a notable upgrade over Trubisky and could give them a steady veteran presence for a couple of more years. Draft Pick: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech - There's growing buzz that Rashawn Slater could join Penei Sewell in the top-10, leaving him just out of the Bears' grasp. But Darrisaw is quite the consolation prize as he's a first-round caliber offensive tackle himself who could fill a big need for the offense in the Windy City. Free Agent Signing: WR Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs - Watkins and Bears head coach Matt Nagy did not cross paths in Kansas City, but a recommendation from Andy Reid could push the two together. The Bears are another team facing some cap complications, and thus may need a cheaper replacement for Allen Robinson on the outside. If so, Watkins has been a strong complimentary receiver who could pair well with rising youngster Darnell Mooney.
Cincinnati Bengals (4-11-1)
Trade Target: G Joe Dahl, Detroit Lions - Finding protection and weapons for QB Joe Burrow is the primary goal for Cincinnati this offseason before they enter the coaching carousel in 2022. Dahl is a strong pass protector who has grown into a quality starter. However, with large contracts for C Frank Ragnow coming up, along with big deals in place for Decker and Vaitai, Detroit may need to send Dahl out for picks. Draft Pick: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon - There is buzz that Northwestern's Rashawn Slater may be viewed as OT1, and I get the hype, however, I'm sticking with Sewell for now. The Bengals should draft Sewell and get him ready to go as their franchise left tackle in 2021. Free Agent Signing: CB Troy Hill, Los Angeles Rams - The Bengals have a healthy chunk of cap space, and should use of that to bring back CB William Jackson III. However, they should not stop there, they should also make a push for a quality veteran cornerback like Hill to bolster their defense in the meantime.
Cleveland Browns (11-5)
Trade Target: LB Jaylon Smith, Dallas Cowboys - After looking like an elite linebacker from 2017-2019, Smith had a rough year under now fired defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. A fresh start in Cleveland could be ideal for both teams, as Smith is still young enough, 26 years, to be a strong piece to their defense for years to come. Draft Pick: DT Daviyon Nixon, Iowa - The Browns are in a strong position at 26th overall to sit and see who the top defensive lineman on the board is. If they're lucky enough for it to be a high potential defensive tackle like Nixon, it'd be an ideal situation to bring him in the replace Ogunjobi. A defensive end like Jayson Oweh or Jaelan Phillips could also work here. Free Agent Signing: S Marcus Williams, New Orleans Saints - The Browns could use a big upgrade on the back end, and Williams, at only 24 years old, would be a premium add for a team who finally broke through the playoffs. PFF projects Williams to command a deal around 4-years $57 million, and the Browns would likely have the money to make that happen, sitting tenth in cap space this offseason.
Dallas Cowboys (6-10)
Trade Target: CB Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings - Hughes was a first-round pick for the Vikings in 2018, but has not lived up to the billing so far. Dallas is in need of several new faces on its defensive backfield, and perhaps a new situation could be best for Hughes to turn his NFL career around. For Dallas, a cheap flier on defense. Draft Pick: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama - The Cowboys defense is a mess at many levels, and so picking a premium defensive player like Surtain would be a wise for Dallas to get things straightened out. He's consistently been pegged as the top corner of this draft cycle and makes a lot of sense in Dallas. Free Agent Signing: DT Dalvin Tomlinson, New York Giants - The Cowboys ranked 31st in total rushing yards surrendered in 2020, meaning they'll need to make it a priority to find a run-stuffer like Dalvin Tomlinson to get their defense back on track. While most teams are geared towards stopping the pass, you simply cannot be as bad in run stopping as Dallas was and expect to be competitive.
Denver Broncos (5-11)
Trade Target: QB Marcus Mariota, Las Vegas Raiders - An inter-divisional trade for a QB seems unlikely, but it's something for both sides to consider. The Broncos need to find a veteran QB to bring in to push QB Drew Lock, who has shown flashes in his first two years but has so far been too inconsistent to commit to long-term. Draft Pick: EDGE Joe Tryon, Washington - More likely a second-round selection here, the Broncos should consider finding a player to develop into Von Miller's replacement, given all the complications with their star pass-rusher recently. Tryon has a high motor and excellent athleticism to develop across from Bradley Chubb. Free Agent Signing: CB Quinton Dunbar, Seattle Seahawks - Dunbar was an excellent player for Washington previously, but did not meet expectations after getting moved to the Seahawks. Should he walk in free agency, perhaps putting him under a solid defensive coach like Vic Fangio could help him get back into the strong form that made him a coveted player in 2019.
Detroit Lions (5-11)
Trade Target: A Big Haul for Matt Stafford - We suggest one later on, but Detroit's in a full-on rebuild with Stafford wanting out. Peter King recently reported that at least five teams would be willing to offer their first-rounder for Stafford. Detroit should turn it into a bidding war and land as many draft picks as they can to bolster their rebuilding efforts. Draft Pick: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State - The Lions are moving on from QB Matthew Stafford after he understandably requested out. With Detroit picking at 7th, there's a very good chance that Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, and Zach Wilson are all off the board. Thus, unless Detroit makes a bold move up the board, chances are that they go with Lance, who has the potential to be available with their pick. He has plenty of upside to develop into a starting QB behind a veteran QB, say Tyrod Taylor, reuniting with new Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn? Free Agent Signing: LB Matt Milano, Buffalo Bills - If we were ranking worst position groups in the league, Detroit's LB corps is in strong contention. An outdated group of lethargic old-school thumpers, almost none of Detroit's LB's are capable of playing modern football at a high level. Detroit should invest some cash into someone who is, such as the Bills LB Matt Milano, an excellent backer with range and some ability in coverage.
Green Bay Packers
Trade Target: WR Michael Gallup, Dallas Cowboys - The Packers wide receivers performed quite well after all the criticism Green Bay received after not bringing in anyone for QB Aaron Rodgers. However, good is the enemy of great, and pairing Gallup with Davante Adams would give Green Bay an elite duo in terms of pass catchers. Draft Pick: LB Nick Bolton, Missouri - If Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah was here as well, I think he could be another strong option, but Bolton is an excellent linebacker who can fill gaps inside and fly from sideline-to-sideline. Free Agent Signing: CB Gareon Conley, Houston Texans - Like the Falcons listed earlier, the Packers don't have positive cap space at the moment, and thus any free agent additions will likely be bargain bin deals. I like the example that PFF lists in their free agency preview, suggesting Conley could replicate Ronald Darby's return, taking a year deal with the aims of getting things turned around and landing a larger deal after that. An opportunity in Green Bay seems like a good start.
Houston Texans (4-12)
Trade Target: Every Pick they can get from the Jets - Even hiring a veteran coach like Culley to run the show and attempt to repair the relationship with Watson, it seems unlikely to me that Houston holds on, given the issues between Watson and owner Cal McNair. Thus, if forced to deal him, the Texans should aim to land at least three first rounders from a team like the Jets, who could see Watson as a better player than any of the QB's available behind Trevor Lawrence. Draft Pick: QB Zach Wilson, BYU - This obviously assumes a trade with the Jets sends #2 overall to Houston. If so, Wilson looks like the next best bet behind Lawrence in my opinion. He, along with the boatload of additional assets that would come along in this trade, should be a solid foundation for Culley and co.'s rebuild. Free Agent Signing: S Malik Hooker, Indianapolis Colts - The Texans will start their rebuild without any cap space, meaning that taking chances on younger guys like Hooker, 24 years old, to potentially find useful pieces is key. If they can land Hooker to play safety for them on a cheap 1-2 year deal, that'd be ideal for Houston.
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - Easy one here. If the Colts had Stafford in 2020 they probably would have replaced the Bills in the AFC Championship Game. Stafford is only 32 years, meaning he still has a strong 4-5 years left to help the Colts' well-rounded roster make a championship push. Surrendering a first round pick and potentially a 2022 3rd (if there competition from others) is a gamble I'd definitely make if I were Chris Ballard. Draft Pick: DE Patrick Jones II, Pittsburgh - Assuming the Colts use their first on the aforementioned Stafford deal, then finding a balanced edge rusher like Jones would be a great move for Indy. With players like Denico Autry and Justin Houston headed to free agency (and getting old), the Colts would get a terror on the edge with a tremendous motor and tools to develop. Free Agent Signing: WR Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears - The Colts have a large amount of cap space, second in the league according to OTC's projections. Given that they will need to conserve some of that war chest for internal extensions, they would be wise to replace T.Y. Hilton with a more dominant receiver like Allen Robinson. An offseason adding Matt Stafford and Robinson together should make Frank Reich and Marcus Brady very excited for 2021.
Jacksonville Jaguars (1-15)
Trade Target: WR Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns - If the Browns are preparing to move on from Beckham Jr., then perhaps sending him down to Jacksonville to pair up with Urban Meyer could help get him playing elite football again. After posting 1,000 yard season in 3 of the previous 4 seasons, an injury once again cut his year short. Draft Pick: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State - Not at #1 overall obviously. We all know that will go to QB Trevor Lawrence. However, with the Rams 1st round selection (acquired via the Jalen Ramsey trade), the Jaguars should look to use it on an upgrade to their offensive line in the form of Radunz. Free Agent Signing: OLB Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Provided new defensive coordinator Joe Cullen brings a Ravens style 3-4 defense with him, then adding a premier OLB like Barrett while K'Lavon Chaisson develops would be a great move for Jacksonville. With the NFL's lead in cap space, Jacksonville could afford Barrett along with some other instant contributors.
Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Trade Target: WR Anthony Miller, Chicago Bears - The Chiefs could easily lose WR Sammy Watkins to free agency, leaving an opening for another wideout to join the rotation. Miller has been fairly productive in Chicago, and could be a solid option to join Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in Andy Reid's passing attack. Draft Pick: G Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC - Vera-Tucker gets mocked to the Chiefs a lot, and it makes perfect sense why. A premier offensive line talent, he has some versatility after playing tackle for the Trojans. While I think his best fit is inside, he'd be an ideal player for Kansas City to add to bolster their protection after investing so much in QB Patrick Mahomes. Free Agent Signing: C Ted Karras, Miami Dolphins - The Chiefs will also be bargain bin hunting, as they're currently over the cap by $18 million. Thus, a starting caliber center like Ted Karras could prove useful for the defending Super Bowl champs (at this point). Karras signed with the Dolphins for only $3 million last season, and a similar deal with KC could be an absolute bargain when all is said and done.
Las Vegas Raiders (8-8)
Trade Target: DT Akiem Hicks, Chicago Bears - I mentioned Hicks for the Panthers as well, but he'd be a great add for either team, perhaps even more so for the Raiders, who could easily see DT Johnathan Hankins depart in free agency. A disruptive player in the middle, he'd be a nice add in Las Vegas. Draft Pick: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia - After shockingly selecting DE Clelin Ferrell at fourth overall in 2019, the Raiders have still been searching for a game changer at DE to go alongside the productive efforts of Maxx Crosby. Ojulari profiles as a high potential pass rusher to scratch that itch for Jon Gruden and co. Free Agent Signing: S Anthony Harris, Minnesota Vikings - The Raiders may have to get creative to free up the cap space to land Harris, as they're currently over. But if they can do it, he'd be an ideal player to add to the Vegas' defense, now led by defensive coordinator Ken Whisen...uh...Gus Bradley. Harris is an elite free safety who would pair well with Jonathan Abram.
Los Angeles Chargers (7-9)
Trade Target: DT Danny Shelton, Detroit Lions - Shelton struggled in Detroit, but frankly, everyone on Patricia's defense did. Before that, Shelton posted strong results as a 3-4 interior gap-plugger, doing a quality job for both the Browns and Patriots before him. With Linval Joseph on the decline, adding a younger replacement for cheap could be in store. Draft Pick: G Wyatt Davis, Ohio State - LA needs a couple of new starters on its offensive line, and if the tackles fly off the board before they can get one at 13th overall, then perhaps a top notch guard could also suffice. Davis has been a consistent player for the Buckeyes and projects as an instant impact lineman for someone at the next level. Free Agent Signing: OT Alejandro Villanueva, Pittsburgh Steelers - A sturdy, veteran left tackle should be a big priority for the Chargers, as the imperative to protect QB Justin Herbert is high. After a breakout season for Herbert, he gives the franchise a ton of optimism under new head coach Brandon Staley. Keeping him upright is something Villanueva would do well at.
Los Angeles Rams (10-6)
Trade Target: QB Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars - The Rams are in a pickle with QB Jared Goff. He has not been a strong point for the team recently, but his contract is a bit too heavy to move right now. Thus, a cheaper way to acquire some genuine competition for Goff could be to trade for the affordable Minshew, a solid starter in his own right. Jacksonville will be bringing in Trevor Lawrence anyways to replace him, so perhaps acquiring a pick or so to send him out could be a wise move. Draft Pick: EDGE Quincy Roche, Miami - Provided that new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris isn't changing the scheme outright, Roche would be an excellent fit at 3-4 OLB in LAR. He's a dynamic pass rusher with excellent physical traits. If he falls to the Rams in the second-round they shouldn't think twice about selecting him. Free Agent Signing: LB Jarrad Davis, Detroit Lions - The Rams are another team already over the cap, so not a lot to spend on. However, they could use some help at inside linebacker, and Davis projects to be a relatively cheap piece to take a gamble on. Physically impressive, he's struggled with the mental side of the game. If Morris can get him sorted out, it could be excellent value.
Miami Dolphins (10-6)
Trade Target: WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons - The Dolphins will likely have the opportunity to draft a premier wide receiver in the first round, but could also use some of their stockpile to add an established star like Jones. Giving Tua as many options as you can is a wise move. Draft Pick: RB Najee Harris, Alabama - Reuniting Harris and Tua in a backfield would fill a big need for the Dolphins. Whether taking him with their second selection in the first round or hoping he drops to the second, Miami should get serious about finding a talented running back, Free Agent Signing: G Joe Thuney, New England Patriots - The Dolphins still have a decent amount of cap space (8th in the league) and could easily use some of that to target an upgrade to the interior of their offensive line by adding Thuney. Thuney crossed paths with Dolphins head coach Brian Flores in New England, and a reunion down south could be profitable for both parties.
Minnesota Vikings (7-9)
Trade Target: DT Tyquan Lewis, Indianapolis Colts - Lewis may not be on the trade block, but the Colts have both defensive tackles locked up ahead of him (Buckner, Grover Stewart). Perhaps they'd consider moving a young, promising 3-technique if Minnesota put together a quality offer for him. He'd instantly fill a need for the Vikings. Draft Pick: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami - With the failed Yannick Ngakoue tenure, the Vikings still need to find a premium pass rusher. Rousseau sat out 2020, but was dominant the year before and projects as a highly athletic piece for Zimmer to develop. Free Agent Signing: OT Matt Feiler, Pittsburgh Steelers - Feiler offers a lot of versatility, which works great for Minnesota, as they could insert Feiler as a starting tackle, or slide G Ezra Cleveland into the LT position and put Feiler in at guard. Either way, a relatively affordable upgrade on the OL.
New England Patriots (7-9)
Trade Target: TE Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles - The Eagles are another team finding themselves in a less-than-ideal cap situation, and thus, will likely explore moving a top player like Ertz. While the Patriots have drafted a handful of decent role players at TE, they've lacked a player of Ertz's caliber. He'd be a nice upgrade to help whomever the Patriots land at QB. Draft Pick: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama - It seems unlikely that Devonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase slip to New England, but I'd imagine they'd be perfectly content with a potential stud like Waddle to bolster their mediocre group of pass catchers. He's a very smooth player with a lot of potential. Free Agent Signing: QB Andy Dalton, Dallas Cowboys - Dalton got off to a rough start with Dallas in relief of QB Dak Prescott, scoring a total of 13 points in 2 games while throwing 1 touchdown to 3 interceptions. However, he was admirable after that, throwing 13 touchdowns to 5 interceptions while posting a 4-3 record over that stretch. Dalton could be an upgrade over Cam Newton for New England while they hunt for a new franchise QB to replace Tom Brady.
New Orleans Saints (12-4)
Trade Target: Draft Picks for Kwon Alexander, Nick Easton, or Latavius Murray - The Saints game isn't necessarily who they should bring in, but if they can get picks for some players with bloated contracts that they may need to cut. If they can score some late-round picks to move these guys (or others) elsewhere, they need to pull the trigger. Draft Pick: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida - While it seems like the hype train on Toney has left the station, it'd be incredible if he slipped to the Saints at 28th overall in this draft. An explosive player, he'd be an ideal partner for WR Michael Thomas, giving Taysom Hill or maybe Jameis(?) some excellent weapons. Free Agent Signing: TE Jacob Hollister, Seattle Seahawks - The Saints, as mentioned, are in cap purgatory. Their signings will be quite minimum once they make the trades, cuts, and restructures required to get them back under the cap. However, one cheaper option could be a solid TE like Hollister, as TE Jared Cook is set to depart. Putting up 25 catches including 3 touchdowns at a price tag a shade over $3 million could be in New Orleans price range.
New York Giants (6-10)
Trade Target: G Gabe Jackson, Las Vegas Raiders - Jackson has been rumored to be available for a little while now. Not yet 30 years old, he's a steady veteran option on the interior of any offensive line and would fit quite well with the Giants. Draft Pick: WR Devonta Smith, Alabama - If the Dolphins don't take Smith, the Giants certainly should. Ensuring that QB Daniel Jones has the weapons he needs to grow into the franchise QB role is pertinent. Smith is a stud pass catcher and would be an excellent pick if he were on the board at 10th overall. Free Agent Signing: EDGE Matt Judon, Baltimore Ravens - The Ravens have let a handful of pass rushers walk, and if they do so with Judon this year, the Giants should go get him. While Yannick could also be a Ravens OLB on the market, Judon fits Joe Judge's style a little bit more than Yannick does, and could be available for cheaper, which is important for another cap squeezed team like the Giants.
New York Jets (2-14)
Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - As I do think Justin Fields or Zach Wilson can be good franchise QB's, Watson already is an exceptional one. The Jets should put together a package of picks to go land the beleaguered QB and unite him with Robert Saleh, whom he listed as one of the guys he originally wanted Houston to interview. Draft Pick: WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC - Assuming the Jets send both first-round selections to the Texans in the hypothetical Watson trade, the Jets would still have a premium pick to start off the second-round, one they should use to add a top tier WR like St. Brown who could be a star quickly. Free Agent Signing: CB William Jackson III, Cincinnati Bengals - If the Bengals can't lock Jackson up to an extension before free agency, the Jets should throw some cash at him to be a foundational piece of Saleh's defense in the Big Apple.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-11-1)
Trade Target: Draft Picks for Zach Ertz, DeSean Jackson, and Alshon Jeffery - Like the Saints, the Eagles probably should focus on offloading bloated contracts rather than bringing anyone in. The cheap rookie contracts that draft picks provide will be needed to steer themselves out of cap purgatory. Draft Pick: WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU - The Eagles and Chase are an ideal fit, and new head coach Nick Sirianni sure could use the big play ability that Chase provides. Whichever QB ends up getting the start, they'll be happy to have a guy like Chase to throw to. Free Agent Signing: CB Bashaud Breeland, Kansas City Chiefs - The Eagles have a horrific cap situation themselves, and thus, a lower-end veteran like Breeland can give them a solid starter at an affordable price as the Eagles try and sort out their defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Steelers may have brought in Dwayne Haskins, but frankly I have little faith there. Instead, they should call up the Jets to figure out what Darnold will cost them. One season behind Roethlisberger in his final go could be a great change of pace for Darnold before taking over. Draft Pick: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson - Everyone is too cool for elite running backs in the wannabe scouting world. But Etienne is a stud, and the Steelers need a big upgrade at running back. If they don't like their options for QB late into the first, they should give serious weight to taking Etienne and landing an elite player rather than reach for a lesser player elsewhere. Free Agent Signing: G Elijah Wilkinson, Denver Broncos - Wilkinson had a very rough 2019 season, but has been a good deal better in 2020. He's still on the younger end, not even 26 years old, and could be an affordable gamble for Pittsburgh, who also needs to find their way back under the cap ($35 million over).
San Francisco 49ers (6-10)
Trade Target: QB Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions - If the Colts don't land Stafford, the 49ers absolutely should. Pairing Stafford and Kyle Shanahan would be fun to watch, and he'd be a much most consistent player for the 49ers than the oft-injured Jimmy G. It's a big move, but one Shanahan may want to consider to make another championship run. Draft Pick: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech - If the 49ers don't move for Stafford and keep their first-round selection, they should target a top tier corner like Farley as they have a handful of corners (Sherman, Witherspoon, Williams) set to hit the open market. Free Agent Signing: DT Shelby Harris, Denver Broncos - The 49ers top priority should be retaining OT Trent Williams, but after that, adding a veteran pass rusher on the interior could be a good move. Harris has been a consistent player for Denver, but has yet to be rewarded with a big opportunity, something he could get here alongside Nick Bosa and Arik Armstead.
Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
Trade Target: DT Jonathan Allen, Washington Football Team - I'm not sure the Football Team would move him, but he is on the final year of his deal, and Washington's going to have weigh future deals for DE's Montez Sweat and Chase Young into the equation. If they aren't willing to pony up for three studs on the defensive line, they may look to add some picks in exchange for Allen. Draft Pick: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern - A late riser up the board after a stellar junior year in Evanston. Newsome has ideal size (6'1, 190 lbs) for Seattle and could help fill a gap if they have to choose between Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. Free Agent Signing: DE Carl Lawson, Cincinnati Bengals - A really good fit here, as the Seahawks very much need some pass-rushing help. Lawson has been an excellent player for the Bengals and could find the chance to compete in the playoffs if he heads west for Seattle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)
Trade Target: QB Sam Darnold, New York Jets - The Bucs are another team that should explore the asking price for Darnold. While Brady is still winning his battle against time, it seems unrealistic to expect it to continue for too much longer. The Bucs could potentially land his heir apparent in Darnold. Draft Pick: Christian Barmore, Alabama - Between Barmore and Daviyon Nixon, I think both have a case to make as DT1 in this class, but Barmore projects as a bit better fit to Todd Bowles' 3-4 defense than Nixon does. The Bucs add an impact defensive lineman to pair on the inside with Vita Vea, giving them flexibility in replacing Ndamukong Suh. Free Agent Signing: OLB Tyus Bowser, Baltimore Ravens - The Bucs have a good chunk of cap space available, but will need to prioritize some re-signings like LB Lavonte David, OLB Shaq Barrett, and TE Rob Gronkowski. Thus, they may not have a lot of cash to throw out there after bringing back some of their own. Bowser is a good value to add as a rotational pass rusher, scoring some decent grades from PFF as a backup for Matt Judon and Yannick in Baltimore. An expanded role in Tampa could pay off for both sides.
Tennessee Titans (11-5)
Trade Target: OLB Jacob Martin, Houston Texans - As sad as it is, Martin's 3 sacks in 2020 would have led the team for Tennessee. In a passing era, you need to get after the QB better than the Texans are doing. While team's are hesitant to trade within the division, the Texans should be more focused on acquiring picks to rebuild, which they could get by moving a decent rotational pass-rusher. Draft Pick: OLB Joseph Ossai, Texas - Really the Titans should be focused on landing a high potential pass-rusher, and Ossai figures to be a hot name in that range. He's a springy pass rusher who can inject some life into one of the league's worst team's at getting to the QB. Free Agent Signing: WR T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts - After a strong season in 2020, WR Corey Davis seems a bit unlikely to return, as he'll likely fetch more on the market than the Titans can afford to pay him. Thus, they should consider adding a veteran replacement to pair with budding star A.J. Brown at wide receiver.
Washington Football Team (7-9)
Trade Target: QB Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans - Another team I think should really make a push for Watson. It'll cost them at least a 2021 and 2022 first-round pick, along with probably another second and DT Jonathan Allen or some other player. It could definitely cost more than that! But Watson would solidify Washington as the top team in the NFC East for the next few years. With QB and DE locked in with Watson, Sweat, and Young, this could be a potential dynasty in the division. Draft Pick: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State - A potential second-round target, Washington should look to find a developmental tackle to eventually slot into their lineup. Morgan Moses and Cornelius Lucas were a solid pairing last year, but both are about to turn 30 years old, and Jenkins has a lot of potential. A year to develop before taking a spot in the starting lineup would ideal for everyone involved. Free Agent Signing: WR Kenny Golladay, Detroit Lions - Washington managed to build a passing attack out of Terry McLaurin and a handful of role players at RB and TE. While it worked in 2020, it does not seem very sustainable, as Washington should use its cap space to bring in a premier WR to pair with Terry McLaurin. Pairing up McLaurin's speed with Golladay's ability to go win contested balls is an ideal complementary pairing.
The cannabis market right now is so similar to the start of the green energy market.. its nowhere near done being bullish. Save for some small dips, there will very likely be a huge bullish trend for 2021. EVEN NASDAQ AGREES. I’ve posted my positions a few times, and I’ll continue to do so. But this is my reasoning for investing in cannabis stocks in general for 2021.
I've been a bull on cannabis since the democrats had a strong pro-cannabis platform. But what made me go balls deep into the market was that the UN changed its classification of cannabis. Countries follow the UN closely for guidance on their own classification of controlled substances. Congress has repeatedly cited the UN’s classification as one of the reasons for not changing it. Several countries immediately changed their stance on cannabis in response to this, including Israel, which In November 2020, announced that it was moving forward with a plan to legalize recreational cannabis nationally. “The country is aiming to implement recreational legalization within nine months, and even if there are delays, that means mid-to-late 2021.” (This is my reason for investing in Canadian cannabis companies, because they are already poised to expand internationally since its legal there nationwide)
THE SENATE IS NOW BLUE! The Georgia runoffs were won by Democrats, and they can now swing the vote left with VP Harris. She promised it as part of her platform, so we know it will be prioritized. CHUCK SHUMER SPONSORED THE MORE ACT. HE WILL BE SENATE MAJORITY LEADER. IT WILL 100% BE PRIORITIZED BETWEEN HIM AND VP HARRIS.
EVERYONE predicted beforehand that the republicans would win Georgia... everyone talked down decriminalization passing the house because of they believed it would NEVER pass the republican majority senate. But the left spent more than any senate race in history to encourage voters to go out and vote. Only once the race started did it become clear that the left had a chance. Then some gains from the surprise that they won. However the gains from 1/5 onwards definitely hasn’t been priced in for all the future legislation, because some of it will be completely new legislation that wasn’t possible to consider before without a blue senate. THIS HASN'T BEEN PRICED INTO THE MARKET YET.
The government is broke post-COVID. There is a terrible image of the police. They don’t want to waste more resources on cannabis related crimes that would be fixed under decriminalization. And the tax revenue from decriminalization would be significant. Decriminalization (THE MORE ACT) opens up the borders to interstate-commerce and international import/export. This would all trickle down into Uncle Sam’s empty pockets.
New York Governor Cuomo announced on Jan 6 his plan to legalize marijuana for adult use (right after New Jersey vote, as I anticipated in my last post) as part of his State of the State agenda. The next step is a ripple out on the North East. NY didn’t want to miss out on tax revenue, neither will any of the other states in the northeast within driving distance of NJ and NY. This is Cuomo’s third attempt in three years to legalize adult-use cannabis in the state; last year, Cuomo included a legalization proposal in his state budget, but the plan was ultimately cut in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Other ongoing state legislature:
Rhode Island: Regulators have received 45 applications for six new medical cannabis dispensary licenses in the state. If all applicants meet the requirements for a license, six will randomly be selected in a lottery to operate retail locations in different regions across the state. Read more
Missouri: Rep. Shamed Dogan has filed legislation that would place an adult-use cannabis legalization measure on the state’s 2022 ballot. Meanwhile, Missourians for a New Approach has announced plans for a separate 2022 ballot initiative after an unsuccessful signature campaign to get the issue before voters in 2020. Read more
Alabama: Sen. Tim Melson plans to reintroduce a medical cannabis legalization bill this year. Medical cannabis legislation passed the Alabama Senate during the 2020 session, but failed to clear the House. Read more
Illinois: Illinois lawmakers have proposed the creation of 75 new cannabis retail licenses to give disadvantaged and minority applicants a second chance at licensing following the controversial licensing lottery to issue an initial 75 dispensary licenses. A work group made up of lawmakers and members of Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s administration met this week to finalize details of the bill, which will be introduced in a lame-duck session that starts Jan. 8, before new lawmakers are sworn in Jan. 13. Read more
Minnesota: House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler is again renewing his push to legalize adult-use cannabis in the state, announcing plans to reintroduce a legalization bill this year. Winkler told WCCO that he sees “Senate leadership as being the number one obstacle,” but said that if lawmakers agreed to place an adult-use legalization initiative on Minnesota’s 2022 ballot, “it would pass overwhelmingly.” Read more
Virginia: Del. Steve Heretick has reintroduced a bill to legalize adult-use cannabis. Heretick has proposed legislation related to decriminalization and legalization in the past, and this year’s bill would legalize the cultivation, sale and consumption of cannabis in the state. Read more
Connecticut: Gov. Ned Lamont renewed his push for adult-use legalization during his State of the State address Jan. 6, announcing that it is a priority for the new legislative session. Connecticut’s 2021 legislative session opened Jan. 6, and Lamont, a Democrat, kicks off the session with increased majorities in the House and Senate, which could increase his chances of passing an adult-use legalization bill. Read more
Now that you understand why I’m going green, here’s my reasoning for my positions. TLRY (Tilray)
largest cannabis company in the world by revenue post merger. Will run out of Seattle and New York City. New York Legalization on top of senate turning blue is a big catalyst for TLRY.
Merger hasn’t completed yet, and the merger happened before the senate went blue.. that was the gamble APHA was making, and they won. The sky is the limit now. When they merge, they will reduce expenses and be much more likely to post profitable quarters. (This is why mergers have so much hype; the sum is > than their parts because they can reduce operating expenses while maintaining revenue from the two companies)
Tilray CEO Brendan Kennedy: “I think medical cannabis will be legal at the federal level, which means medical cannabis can cross state lines and be imported into the U.S., like we export cannabis from Canada and Portugal to about 15 countries now,” Kennedy said. “Anyone who thinks there’s a state-specific medical market is wrong.” As for the recreational market, Kennedy says the state-specific markets, with interstate trade banned, “are not going to last long.” Kennedy believes that cannabis will be distributed like alcohol and tobacco within two years’ time. That would require significant overhaul of US federal drug laws—and would significantly disrupt all US cannabis companies’ existing business models. Brendan Kennedy, the cannabis billionaire will step down as Tilray's chairman and CEO. Irwin D. Simon, Aphria's current chairman and CEO will take Kennedy's place.
[On December 18, 2020, just three days after the U.S. Senate adopted the Cannabidiol and Marihuana Research Expansion Act (CMREA or the Act) (more on this below), the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA or the Administration) published in the Federal Register a final rule, “Controls To Enhance the Cultivation of Marihuana for Research in the United States” (Rule), which finally paves the way for DEA to issue additional licenses to grow “marihuana” (i.e., cannabis) for research purposes.](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/on-heels-of-senate-s-adoption-of-36129/)
GNLN (Greenlane Holdings)
One of the largest global sellers of premium cannabis accessories. Pax/JUUL/Volcano products. I’ve had Pax products, and although I prefer Arizer because of the affordability, I can’t deny Pax has quality products and is like the “iPhone” of vaporizers. I like their products, I like their branding. There’s lots of hype and loyalty, especially with their Volcano desktop vaporizer.
Strong US brands.
The main reason they did poorly was bad timing. They IPO’d during the year that JUULs started being banned. They’re actually at all those levels again. Theres a ton of upside potential.
Market cap is ridiculously low for some really renown brands all because of the JUUL flavor pod ban. Everyone knows Pax, Volcano, and JUUL. But no one knows Greenlane because of the bad timing of their IPO and the subsequent JUUL flavor ban. It’s crazy. They’ve already broke all time high for the year. But I’m holding until they break 1B market cap.
Overall i think too many people count it out just because of their IPO and subsequent decline in JUUL sales from the JUUL flavored pods ban. They definitely have the potential because of their strong branding and quality products. I’m betting on them having more high quality products in the future with equally loyal customers.
SNDL (Sundial Growers)
SNDL must close above $1 per share for 10 consecutive sessions by June 26, 2021 or it will bedelisted from NASDAQ. People see this as a fear factor, I see this as “they will do anything necessary to reach $1 for a week so they won’t be delisted”.. IMHO reverse splitter probably isn’t on the table since they could have done that in 2020, but instead applied for a 6 month extension after announcing “alternative strategic investments”. We can already see this by their predatory loan SPAC spinoff.
Rumors of a merger with CGC; SNDL also purchased a SPAC recently and entered an agreement with Zenabis, immediately claiming they defaulted. Turning that SPAC into predatory loan/debt repurchasing company. Imo if they want to complete a merger, it would be easy to sell ownership through that SPAC to the buyer.
THEY RECENTLY WENTDEBT FREE by selling off unprofitable assets in the business. This means we are much more likely to see earnings in future quarters, and they are much more attractive for mergers.
Because they are indoor growers, they are more likely to be bought up by a company in the consolidating Canadian cannabis market than fail all together. The amount of space licensed to grow cannabis in Canada is now heavily skewed toward outdoor cultivation instead of indoor for the first time, according to new data from Health Canada. A growing population of licenses for outdoor growers means that there aren’t as many indoor licenses being given out... If a company ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD wants to quickly expand into indoor growing OR into the west, they would have to purchase an existing company that has the license to quickly do so. This is WAY faster, and a guaranteed way to obtain a license rather than applying for one and waiting x amount of months and be rejected for some requirement that wasn’t met.
From my own experience, outdoor cannabis is subpar quality to indoor grown cannabis. So a growing market for outdoor cannabis doesn’t necessarily mean its better... it is likely just cheaper. I would imagine a high quality “craft cannabis” company would want to purchase SNDL, or an existing outdoor growing company that wants to quickly expand to indoor grown cannabis. With this being a Canadian company, there’s a chance a company in another country like Israel would be interested in purchasing it in the near future.
PLNHF (Planet 13 Holdings)
Biggest tourist trap in Las Vegas if you’re a stoner, casual smoker, or just wanting to try it. From my own experience, I think they will continue to be successful. If I went around the US trying other brands I’d probably be more confident in putting 5-10% of my portfolio into those picks or choosing to not include them lol. Like for example, I used to have Curaleaf. But there's tons of bad feedback on Curaleaf, a friend has tried it said the nug is really subpar quality and if I tried their nug I’d probably confirm that I wouldn’t want to invest in them. With PLNHF, i’ve seen the ambience and tried the product myself. It’s definitely a lot of hype price wise, but still quality. This is my own bias showing, but I still think they’ve got solid fundamentals and excellent location/strong US branding.
I’m well aware of other good stocks like GTBIF, CRLBF, SSPK, TCNNF, GRWG.. but these stocks haven’t been swinging as hard in response to pro-cannabis news. E.g. TLRY, SNDL, GNLN swung more than 20% some days from pro-cannabis news...I will likely reduce my current positions shortly after inauguration, after some news about the timeline for cannabis legislation, and diversify my positions more between these other good picks. 2021 is the year of cannabis boys
DD: Cinemark ($CNK) – Clear Standout in “Moon Stock” Screen🚀🚀🚀
First time poster, longtime tard. GME was too beautiful to remain a passive reader. Sure, lob your “HF shill” comments (bring it retards) but then hear me out if you like $$$$ (…can’t be sure with half you guys…) The perfect stock has been right in front of your eyes and it’s so obvious it hurts. AMC’s ugly sister, CNK, is strapped to an Elon Musk rocket and is just begging for someone to press the big shiny launch button. This is a rare one-two punch where both the technical & fundamental pictures look great. Punchline Upfront: CNK currently trades at $20. CNK has upside to $40. These are levels at which it traded only 18 months ago. In fact, CNK traded in a $10 range between $32 and $42 in 2019 with an average price of $37.80
Technical: The Ice Cream (The Tendie?)
OK… Why CNK? Simple: I ran a “Moon Screen” which looked for:
High Short Interest (>20% of floatable shares outstanding)
Cheap Stock (Hasn’t Had A “GME moment”, low 1 year return, fundamentals etc.)
Small company with lower trading volume (both mean more upside)
Liquid (i.e. a lot) call options (fuck puts) to minimize trading costs (i.e. maximize tendies)
and CNK got spit out as the clear standout. If this feels familiar, it’s because most of these criteria were based off GME before Cohen was announced to the board. That’s right: I simply want to acknowledge the salivating technical set up and it’s similarity to GME pre-orbit.
Fundamental: The Cherry on Top (The Tendie Sauce?)
COVID has changed the world in lasting, meaningful ways and CNK’s theatre footprint is uniquely positioned to benefit from these changes. Pent-up demand for out-of-home entertainment combined with a backlog of strong film content creates a strong backdrop for Cinemark.
Reason 1: Suburban + Lower-Income Tilt Will Outperform in Post-COVID World
TL;DR: Suburban Footprint = Actually Really Fucking Good (For Many Reasons)
Cinemark’s theatre footprint is slated toward suburban locations. Don’t take my word for it, here is their COO/CFO Sean Gamble (really his name lol): “[CNK] tends to be more suburban, while [AMC’s] circuit tends to be a bit more metro.” This is what gets me excited. While we still don’t fully know the extent COVID had on people living in dense, urban areas like NYC, the preliminary read is that it has accelerated the move to the suburbs. This helps CNK for two reasons:
Suburban locations have lower rent
Suburban locations stand to benefit from higher demand based off people moving to the suburbs
Just think for a second. On average, suburbs have less fun shit to do. Although going to the movies might not sound that exciting in a city given all the great alternatives, going to the movies might be “the only game in town” in suburbia In addition, Cinemark operates primarily in smaller cities and suburban areas, meaning lower-income where customers are more price-sensitive. Cinemark’s customer base also has a higher share of families than AMC/Regal. This also helps CNK:
More price sensitive customers => less ability to create a compelling movie experience at home => more likely to continue going to the theater
TL;DR: Lots Money + Low Debt + Low Rent = I Can Wait Out COVID
Strong balance sheet (850mm in cash sitting there; low leverage of 2x-3x vs. AMC at 8.5x). Industry-leading Operations with FAT margins (23-26% domestic margins; 8.6% “fatter” (i.e. good, fat margin = fat tendie) than AMC) Low rent obligations. New/updated theaters. Nice operational runway to weather the COVID storm.
Reason 3: Boost From Dollar Weakness
25% of revs from Latin America. Huge FX headwind here if dollar depreciates (which many people think) Valuation/*Nerd Shit*:
Has traded historically at 6.5-8.5x fwd EBITDA. Conservatively, take low end of range due to sentiment around streaming killing box office sales despite still trading at 8.5x as recently as a few years ago
Full-year 2021 revs will be -50% but by 2022, revs should be back to 2019 (pre-COVID) levels. So, using 2022 lvls is the right forward base to value this thing.
EBITDA was ~750mm in 2019. 50mm haircut for potential covid hiccups puts me at 700mm estimate for 2022 (again, the first “normal” year given 2021 is already off to shit start). Taking the low-end of the valuation multiple, 6.5x, gives me a price of $38.50 (after dividing by shares outstanding)
Streaming service (AMZN, NFLX, DIS) bundling subscriptions with theatre access might serve as a competitive differentiator as the content wars get increasingly competitive as nearly a dozen streaming services compete for market share. Might snatching up a cinema on the cheap offer an edge via a differentiated experience tack on?
Just as restaurants won’t go away despite everyone having a kitchen, theatres could still have a role, although a changed one that will have to become experience-first, movie-second
As long as dates (esp. highschool !) and nights out still happen, having an extra avenue to watch movies besides your couch will still have some demand
A physical footprint for AMZN to test VR and reinforce other e-commerce services
Notes/Links: Sean Gamble - Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer
"And in terms of our overlap, it really varies based on the market and just what you consider overlap based on distance. In general, it's pretty small, I would say, estimate less than 20%. You just consider our market shares, that can kind of show that it's only a small portion in. We generally tend to be more suburban, while their circuit tends to be a bit more metro. So it's a limited overlap."
[Scottish Football] How one of Scotland's biggest clubs was liquidated and had to start all over again
Obviously this isn't set in England, but spiritually this piece is within my English Football series. The first six episodes covered Nottingham Forest's 21st century woes, the dickpic that consigned Notts County to the non-league, a reignited rivalry between Derby County and Leeds United, Stoke City's legendary shithouse era, the English Golden Generation of the 00s descending into farce, and Wimbledon FC's controversial relocation to Milton Keynes This spin-off piece follows on from the main question raised by the Wimbledon FC/MK Dons saga. When does a club stop being a club? Is it the legal entity or something rather more intangible? These were questions posed with regards to one of the titans of Scottish football earlier this decade. Background - The Establishment Club Rangers FC has long cultivated an image as Scotland's 'establishment club', it isn't just a sports team, but an institution that embodies a particular way of living and worldview. Alongside other institutions like the Church of Scotland, the club is perceived as embodying traditional and small-C conservative Scottish values. Alongside Celtic (more on them in a bit) Rangers have dominated Scottish football since the league started. No club other than the two Glaswegian sides has won the league since 1985. Rangers have 54 league titles, Celtic have 51. The joint 3rd best sides (Aberdeen and the Edinburgh pair Hearts and Hibernian) have just four a piece. And yet as a legal entity the club ceased to exist in 2012. What happened? Does Rangers FC still exist? It would be impossible to tell this tale without telling the tale of the Old Firm and the profound political, cultural, and religious divides involved. Glasgow's two largest clubs have a rivalry that defies comparison to anything in the rest of Scotland or in England. Essentially Rangers FC and its supporters represent Protestantism and British Unionism, while Celtic FC are considered to be aligned with Catholicism and Irish Nationalism. When the two sides meet, the Scottish saltire is rarely flown by supporters. Rangers supporters prefer the Union Jack or Ulster Banner, Celtic fans are likely to fly Irish tricolours. It is as if somebody took the socio-cultural conflict of Northern Ireland and transplanted it into a football ground. Which is sort of what happened. Ultimately a big factor was migration to Glasgow in the early 20th century - Irish Catholics in Glasgow set up Celtic FC as their club, while Protestants from Northern Ireland (who are historically of largely Scottish extraction) who worked in the shipyards of the Clyde came to adopt Rangers which was located near the shipbuilding areas. Local Scots, being generally Protestant, inclined to support Rangers and many would have shared the religious and political feelings of the newcomers from Northern Ireland. This has meant that at matches both clubs have sections of support who chant about the Northern Irish conflict - some Rangers fans have a 'songbook' including the Loyalist anthem The Sash (which commemorates King William III, the Dutchman invited to become King of England and Scotland who defeated a Catholic army at the Boyne in 1690), while Celtic fans might sing in support of the Irish Republican Army. This involves by no means the majority of supporters, but it is important in setting the atmosphere at games. Rangers FC had until the late 1980s an alleged policy of not signing any player known to be a Catholic. This led legendary Celtic manager Jock Stein to joke that if offered a Catholic or a Protestant to sign for Celtic, he would sign the Protestant in the knowledge that Rangers would never sign the Catholic. I cannot find evidence of any player ever transferring directly between Celtic and Rangers in the postwar era, with the low number of players who have turned out for both having had a 3rd club in between. Another example of the intensity is the way in which the clubs traditionally share shirt sponsors. This sounds innocuous, but the only way to sponsor one of the clubs without triggering a mass boycott by the other supporters was to simply sponsor both. No other football rivalry in Britain has a dynamic like this (Liverpool and Everton did to a far lesser extent before about the 1960s, but sectarianism largely died out there decades ago), even in the days when hooliganism was a serious blight on English football it never quite reached the sort of scenes on display at the 1980 Scottish Cup Final. Which club is the 'biggest'? It is impossible to say. Rangers have had more League titles, but Celtic being the first British club to win a European Cup in 1967 is a fairly potent trump card. What is without a doubt is that they are the two best supported Scottish clubs and their rivalry is possibly like no other. Chasing the Rainbow Avid readers of this series will notice a theme. The 1990s were a boom time for football and everyone involved in the sport. TV revenue started to really take off, as did the prizes for winning European competitions. Many clubs sought to capitalise on the windfall and Rangers were no exception. Their chairman, Sir David Murray, had become one of Scotland's weathiest businessmen by leveraging debts against future revenue. He spent big on Rangers in the hope that they would win a major European trophy and repay his investment. Top players like Paul Gascoigne came to Rangers where before it was fairly rare for big name players from other leagues to move to Scotland. Domestically his investments paid off, from 1989-97 Rangers won nine League titles in a row, equalling the record set by Jock Stein's great Celtic side between 1966-74. Unfortunately this did not translate to the windfall a Champion's League win would have given. While Murray was bankrolling Rangers, other clubs around Europe were likewise chasing the new massive financial prizes. Rangers came close to getting past the group stage of the new Champion's League format in 1992-93, but no Scottish club would enter a Champion's League knockout round until Rangers do so in 2005-06. The debts mounted and Murray sought ways to manage the debts and hedge them against future revenue anticipated from TV fees and European prize money. He allowed the Bank of Scotland to buy a stake in the club with a mortgage allowing them to recover their losses in the event of the club defaulting on its repayments. Nothing to worry about, surely? David Murray had become a wildly successful businessman by effectively managing credit lines and debt against future income to fund expansion. But a far bigger problem was just three small letters. EBT Put simply, Employee Benefit Trusts are a way of not paying tax, it was legal in some cases at the time but is generally illegal now. Murray sought, from 2000, to pay his players through EBTs. This meant that they would be able to offer high net wages to players while cutting tax costs. In Britain most employees have all their tax payments deducted by the employer, so schemes like this and ones where employees are paid in dividends are a way of essentially not paying tax. By 2010 HMRC had begun to investigate the case, concluding that Rangers may have evaded £49m in taxes, a vast amount for a club already overleveraged in debt in a league not known for being particularly wealthy. By about 2008 Murray had had enough of Rangers and was looking to sell up. He had gambled and lost huge amounts of money on the club, which was now saddled with huge amounts of debt. The prospect of paying £49m to HMRC if the courts ruled against Rangers deterred any serious buyer and it took some years for a buyer to emerge. Another serious issue was the sheer amount of debt Rangers had to Lloyds (who had taken over the Bank of Scotland), with fans in 2009 threatening a boycott of the banking chain if the bank called in its debts. Would a buyer emerge and save Rangers from this predicament? Well, a buyer would emerge in 2011. Not the other bit, sadly. Enter Craig Whyte Craig Whyte had once been Scotland's youngest millionaire as a venture capitalist. He bought the club for £1 from Murray but desperately needed to leverage some funds to settle the Lloyds debt, so he borrowed a cool £26.7m against future season ticket sales. This on the face of it should have set alarm bells, even the biggest clubs don't make huge amounts of money on matchday tickets in relation to their massive costs. Whyte also indulged in a bit of tax fiddling. But rather than setting up an avoidance mechanism and letting the lawyers fight it out, he just stopped sending Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs the income tax payments for the club players and staff. Definitely not the sophistication of Murray. Matters only got worse. In early 2012 BBC Scotland aired a BAFTA-winning documentary about Whyte and Rangers, which revealed that Whyte had been once banned from working as a company director for seven years. The Scottish Football Association agreed, Whyte was not a 'Fit and Proper' person to own a football club. At about this time Rangers entered administration. When this happens in Britain, the company's creditors can agree to a 'Company Voluntary Arrangement' (CVA) which essentially means agreeing a plan for the company to continue operating while in administration so the creditors can recover their debts. HMRC, with the outstanding £49m tax case from Murray's era plus the money owed by Whyte's outright failure to pay tax, voted against allowing this to happen. In the absence of a CVA and agreement with creditors, this meant that Rangers FC as a company ceased to exist in June 2012, with all assets transferred to 'Sevco Scotland Ltd'. Could this have been avoided? In the end, the £49m owed to HMRC which proved such a millstone has been substantially reduced and the cases around it are still ongoing. But ultimately, Rangers had vast amounts of debt not just to HMRC. For his part Whyte would be bankrupted by his loan to buy the club and would be faced with a far longer ban on acting as a company director. Sevco FC? Sevco inherited everything Rangers had. The players had an opportunity to transfer their employment to Sevco, which also gained Ibrox Stadium and Ranger's membership of the Scottish Premier League. For the club owned by Sevco to be able to play in the SPL next season, 2/3rds of members had to vote in favour. Clubs such as Aberdeen, Dundee United, and Hearts bowed to fan feeling that Rangers could not continue where they left off. In the end, no club voted in favour of Rangers remaning in the SPL with only Kilmarnock abstaining. This event would generate a huge amount of bad feeling and bitterness from Rangers fans who felt that supporters of other clubs were content to throw them under a bus for reasons not of their making. There was definitely a sense of schadenfreude from supporters of other clubs, watching Scotland's 'Establishment Club' go to the wall. Could Rangers join the Scottish First Division and gain promotion to the Premier League? First Division clubs didn't want to face the consequences of a Premier League problem, so they also rejected it. In the end, the Scottish Football League allowed Rangers FC to rejoin the league in the Third Division, a largely semi-professional league three divisions below the Premier League. Their first competitive game was a Challenge Cup (competition for the two lower leagues in the Scottish Football League) tie against Brechin City, who represent a sleepy town of just 7,000. Clawing their way back up Most of Ranger's players had refused their statutory right to transfer employment to the new company. Nonetheless, the 2012-13 season started well with their first home league game setting a world record for the best attended fourth division match in history as over 49,000 attended Rangers vs East Stirlingshire. A strong league performance saw Rangers confirm promotion into the 3rd tier by the end of March. 2013-14 saw another promotion as Rangers had an unbeaten season in League One (the leagues were renamed at about this time) to secure promotion to the Championship, the first league which would be wholly filled with professional clubs after the mix of professional and semi-professional that plies their trade in Scotland's lower leagues. Rangers didn't make it three back-to-back promotions as they lost a promotion play-off final 6-1 to Motherwell, one of Scotland's more successful non-Old Firm clubs who had suffered a stint in the 2nd tier. During this season they met Celtic in the cup. Some Celtic fans placed an advert in a newspaper claiming that the 'Old Firm' was over and while they had enjoyed a rivalry with Rangers FC they did not recognise the new club as the same entity. This caused some controversy, not just with Rangers fans, but with Celtic fans who were indeed looking forward to the first Old Firm in some time. The accusation that Rangers were 'Zombies' or 'Sevco FC' would become a common one from Celtic supporters at games and remains as such. Rangers won the 2016-15 Scottish Championship to secure promotion, while also beating Celtic in a Scottish Cup semi-final. But, the 'Gruesome Twosome' of Scottish football would once again grace the top flight together. Same as before? Celtic had done very well out of the previous few years. They had won a succession of League titles at a canter with the accompanying European qualification giving them financial muscle the other clubs couldn't compete with. Rangers finished a respectable 3rd, but Celtic once again dominated the league. After an embarrassing elimination out of the Europa League at the hands of a semi-professional side from Luxembourg, Rangers didn't improve on their 3rd place and Celtic won again. It wasn't until 2018-19 that Rangers finished 2nd. With Celtic winning again. Could Celtic's domination be broken before they won 10 titles in a row and broke the record jointly held by 1960s-70s Celtic and 1990s Rangers? Perhaps not yet. 2019-20 started well, Rangers had a fantastic run in the Europa League under Steven Gerrard and beat Celtic at their ground for the first time since 2010. COVID put paid to an increasingly close title race with Celtic awarded the title based on Points Per Game with the season abandoned. This season has very much been Ranger's season though. At the time of writing they seem, barring a miracle/disaster, overwhemingly likely to win the League this year and deny Celtic the coveted ten in a year. Postscript Is the Rangers FC of today the same club as that pre-2012? Displays from Celtic fans would say not, and as a legal entity it certainly isn't the same. But UEFA allows for 'sporting continuity' for a club in terms of identity and honours even if the holding company or corporate structure changes. This suggests something that many football supporters would agree with - a club is as much as community asset as it is a company or business and the stories we have looked at explore the issues when the business and the community collide. Next time, we'll take a look at how Arsenal Fan TV revolutionised football social media while turning their club into a laughing stock
Analyzing All Potential Managerial Options and Creating My Shortlist
I will be going through each and every feasible option of manager, citing their style, personality, history and strengths/weakness. I will also be looking at their respective situations in determining the likelihood of acquiring them.
Where We Are and What We Need
The current situation Madrid finds itself with is more complicated given the pandemic, financially the club has been said to have no money to spend next summer, but their is conflicting reports suggesting we could very well potentially spend for the right targets in the right situation. However, free signings seem to still be plausible with the strong Alaba links. There is also returning loan players or players who've been given limited chances, who can help fill needed roles, or players from Castilla's. Currently we have players ranging in all different kinds of styles, roles, positions, abilities and personalities. This allows for a lot of tactical maneuverability, meaning we have a lot of the personnel needed to play any style realistically without a need for a prolonged managerial transition. With that though, we have a lot of players ranging in prestige and mentality, some are at the top, whilst others are projects expected to grow into that level. This means despite a large amount of youth, the manager still needs prestige and a reputation high enough to garner respect and command a dressing room. The expectations for Madrid will most likely not change, and patience will depend on the manager (reputation as a playemanager, their vision and/or how the relationship is with the board/Perez). Despite being in a "transition period" expectations for Madrid wont change, its the curse of being the most successful team in the world. The manager will be expected to get results, winning at least one major trophy or competing highly in most competitions. With that we need a manager who can win now but also help to build the team for themselves or others in the future for much more success. Its unclear when Zidane will be sacked, most reports suggest hell last until the end of the season, others state he has until we get knocked out of all major coemptions, in the worst case the team is in a bad position and needs a change to save next season on top of this season, a lot of fans want him gone now. With unclarity on Zidane's timetable, availability of managers also change. Some are available now but could be gone soon whilst others are more available at the end of the campaign. With the large amount of youth we need a manager who can successfully build them into great players, and turning some into Madrid class. The manager needs to also combine youth with experience effectively. in order to continue competing. Finally, the manager needs to instill confidence in fans. A brand of football that can be entertaining, a personality that makes fans root for them, and little-to-no drama.
Options
In this list we'll just be giving names of all managers of the necessary level or potentially step up to that level, managers who miss out of the next process will be crossed off, those managers miss out due to clashes with club/fans, financially unfeasible in relation to quality, and no interest from managers. It should be noted this includes managers available now or in the summer, as some aren't available now but are more so in the summer.Manager= unattainable.
Jürgen Klopp
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
Brendan Rodgers
Carlo Ancelotti
José Mourinho
Ralph Hassenhutl
Frank Lampard
Mikel Arteta
Marcelo Bielsa
Pep Guardiola
Nuno Espirito Santos
Diego Simione
Ronald Koeman
Julen Lopetegui
Unai Emery
Imanol Alguacil
Hans-Dieter Flick
Julian Nagelsmann
Peter Bosz
Marco Rose
Adi Hütter
Stefano Pioli
Antonio Conte
Gennaro Gattuso
Paulo Fonseca
Gian Piero Gasperini
Simone Inzaghi
Andrea Pirlo
Mauricio Pochettino
Christophe Galtier
Ernesto Valverde
Quique Setien
Thomas Tuchel
Massimiliano Allegri
Maurizio Sarri
Luciano Spalletti
Guti
Raul
Marcelo Gallardo
Leonardo Jardim
Marcelino García Toral
Roberto Martinez
Joachim Low
Luis Enrique
Roberto Mancini
Frank de Boer
Erik Ten Hag
Gareth Southgate
Niko Kovac
Ryan Giggs
Lucien Frave
Santiago Solari
Ralf Rangnick
Witling Down the Options
Next the names I suggest wont be continuing because of their own respective falters being too big of a risk to consider. Unai Emery - Villarreal 2023 Despite Emery's clear issues he's still a top manager, however his inability to progress past the Quarter Finals with a stacked PSG team as well as the historic defeat to Barcelona, on top of his unimpressive time at Arsenal shows he need to do well with Villarreal for a while before its a gamble worth taking. Marcelo Bielsa - Leeds 2021 Bielsa is a manager many managers look up to, his current Leeds team is one of the most entraining in the world. However his style is known to take a while to implement, often it hasn't worked in the past. Despite his long managerial history he's not got much to show in terms of success. Though he might be a fun manager it seems like too big of a gamble, he needs to show more longevity and/or success if he is to come into a top-top team. Imanol Alguacil - Real Sociedad 2023 Imanol has taken Sociedad to a level expectant of their history and personally, he has them playing fun football mostly. Along with his knowledge of the league and Nationality on top of other things he'd be perfect if only he had the experience. Coaching only around 100 matches of top flight football isn't quite enough unless you did something truly unbelievable. He's a manager to definitely keep an eye on, however its not the right time for him. Peter Bosz - Bayer Leverkusen 2022 Peter Bosz is definitely someone who is making a name for himself, he has Leverkusen 3rd in the table and playing some attacking football. Very reminiscent of his time at Ajax, when he was truly a name to talk about. However that time at Dortmund can't be forgotten so quickly, 2 cumulative good seasons isn't enough. But he is someone to keep an eye on. Adi Hutter - Frankfurt 2023 Hutter has been making waves in Frankfurt, having been brought in from a very successful time at Young Boys he's done very well in the last 2.5 years. He's shown to get the best out of a competent strike force, specifically Jovic. However like most managers on this list he isn't quite there yet, but definitely one to watch. Christophe Galtier - Lille 2021 What more can you say, he was chosen by Luis Campos (the man who constructed Lille's transfers) to take helm and lead them into a very good few seasons. Mixing youth and experience, playing a complete style. He garnered a lot of experience in his career, however he needs another good stepping stone before going to a top-top club. If he carries on doing well at Lille or another club, definitely bring him aboard. Luciano Spalletti - FREE Luciano has a very large CV, managing a lot of clubs, but specifically Roma and Inter. However his style isn't that great, specifically at Inter he made them play very boring and uneventful football. His personality is a mix bag. Though he did well at Roma. He's been out of a job since the end of the 2018/19 season, given that it doesn't seem wise to go for him. maybe he can turn things around but its uncertain. Leonardo Jardim - FREE His Monaco side was the epidemy of exciting, it was youthful, creative, well balanced, and punched all the way to very high heights. However when the selling spree occurred Jardim couldn't cope, and even after returning in the same season he couldn't reignite the fire once seen. Having been out of a job over a year he hasn't recaptured the quality needed to gamble on him. Roberto Mancini - Italy NT 2022 Mancini has one of the largest CV's out of all the coaches, having managed clubs like Inter, City and Lazio since the early 2000s. However its been clear his coaching has been stagnating and declining, the move to Italy seemed like it could rejuvenate him, however though he's done better then the others he hasn't done quite enough to warrant his name being considered, could very well change in the future. Niko Kovac - Monaco 2023 After having a great time at Frankfurt he went to Bayern and did very poorly, even more so in retrospect when Flick came in and managed to turn what seemed to be a trophyless season into another historic treble winning season. After his appointment to Monaco he's been helping to take them back to the top. His reputation after Bayern has been very much hurt, he clearly wasn't at that level but similar to others, maybe he can in time. As of now though he's not good enough. Ryan Giggs - Wales NT 2022 Giggs has a very large reputation thanks to his playing career, however he's not done enough as a manager to warrant an opportunity. if this was MU he'd probably move up the list given his legend status, but in Madrid it cant be said he should. Lucien Frave - FREE Played attractive football at times, and was very highly considered at points in his career, however getting sacked by Dortmund rightfully so definitely warrants him getting punted off the list. Potentially can be a very good coach, but as of now, definitely not. Gareth Southgate - England NT 2022 Took England very far, though not super attractive football, he did very well with Enlgand. However language barrier could be an issue along with other things. He doesn't seem like the right fit at all for Madrid, but definitely is garnering a big reputation. Frank Lampard - FREE Derby to Chelsea seemed to be too big of a step up, so Chelsea to Madrid seems unfathomable. Definitely a promising manager however his issues with the board, media and players seems too toxic in-it-of-itself to consider him. He needs a lot more time to build experience. Paulo Fonseca - Roma 2022 A promising manager with a lot of experience, he's lacking the necessary pop with Roma to consider him any further, though he's doing well with them, in comparison to managers before him, he's not taking them much if any higher. He's just a caliber below at the moment. Roberto Martinez - Belgium NT 2022 A manager with a less then impressive club CV, and playing CV in relation to Madrid. He certainly has done very well with Belgium, however he hasn't done enough yet. The big links to Barcelona definitely did his reputation very well however he needs to do more with this quality Belgium team if he's to be considered more.
Shortlisted Options
We'll be looking at each candidate in this section, breaking them down, before moving onto the next section where we'll place them numerically.
Jürgen Klopp
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer
Ralph Hassenhutl
Erik Ten Hag
Nuno Espirito Santos
Julian Nagelsmann
Hans-Dieter Flick
Antonio Conte
Marco Rose
Gennaro Gattuso
Simone Inzaghi
Joachim Low
Gian Piero Gasperini
Massimiliano Allegri
Maurizio Sarri
Marcelo Gallardo
Guti
Raul
Jurgen Klopp - Liverpool 2024 Probably everyone's most ideal candidate, Jurgen Klopp has been making waves in football for many years now, as of now he's considered one of the top 3 managers in the world. With about 20 years of top flight coaching experience he makes up for his downfall in lack of player reputation. His 4231/433 approach has garnered praise for his use of gegenpressing, in recent times he's made very large adaptations that's seen his side use possession based football a lot more. This has seen Klopp's team become a very complete side, able to attack, defend and control games. He's excellently balanced youth, world class players and turning players into class/world class. His trophy cabinet, along with how he handles big games is very impressive. His personality gets fans and the board on his side, whilst also having that egotistical approach that makes you a winner. His locker-room is very warming and their is very few times controversy. At 53 he's at a good age, not too young or old. His biggest complaints could come from his style taking a bit too long to implement, with his reputation he will be awarded patience but its unclear whether it will be enough or if he can handle it. There's also the issue with his contract, it could cost Madrid a lot to bring him in, it seems very clear he wont move in the winter but its unclear if he'd even want a move in the summer. Finally the language barrier could pose a problem, for himself and his staff. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Manchester United 2022 Ole is a name many will question, and rightfully so. He doesn't have the managerial pedigree yet, though he does have a large reputation as a player, its unclear if that could translate to Madrid. However he's certainly an interesting option. His style of play is focused primarily on counterattacking, however he is very adaptable formation wise. Usually he has done well to pick up points against bigger opposition. He seems like a coach who can win something with a team. He does well to implement youth, focusing on local talents and club prospects, but can also use the quality in a team. He's a manager whose been in high pressure situations before and has handled them well, he's taken MU to the top of the table this season, fighting for the league. At 47 he's at a good age. However language could be an issue on top of adapting to the league, as he's never been in that process before to such extremes. Ralph Hassenhutl - Southampton 2024 Another questionable name on the shortlist, he's certainly a character. He's known to be a passionate manager, oozing such emotion and energy onto his players and fans. His style is very much about Gegenpressing, press hard and strong, win the ball, and look to exploit the opponents. Switching between a 4222/442 and a 352. Whilst he doesn't have to most Impressive current job, managing a midtable Prem team, he has somewhat of an interesting CV. Having managed Leipzig to a second place in their first to flight season, but a poor 6th placed finish and a bad run in the UCL/Europa League left him getting the sack. The 53 y/o is doing very well with the Saints, having them play attractive football. He's done well to get players into great form, implement youth, however its unclear how he'd handle star talent. His biggest issues come from language, contract, and maybe not being at the level needed quite yet. Erik Ten Hag - Ajax 2022 Someone who doesn't quite have a large playing reputation for Madrid's standards, but his managerial CV potentially makes up for that. Erik Ten Hag has been impressing at Ajax with the way he's been able to successfully integrate youth players and get the best out of older players. He has around 5 years of managerial experience at a professional level, whilst also managing Bayern's B team and being assistant coach for 3 seasons prior. His ajax team were well known as they beat Madrid a few years ago on there way down multiple successful clashes in the UCL. There possession based approach with emphasis on counter pressing, really epitomized attractive football at a possession based level, the constant fluid movements make it not very tiki taka like but more modern. He likes a 4231/433, with all the players, especially fullbacks having good technical agility. His shortcomings are clear though, the massive differences between Eredivise and La Liga could see him have very Bosz level of issues. His approach could see issues Zidane has faced as their styles of play are somewhat similar. At 50 he's at a peak managerial age, whilst taking him might be a gamble, given the quality of youth, it could be worth it. Adaptation could be a problem. Nuno Espirito Santos - Wolves 2023 A manager whose been earning a lot of attention the last few years, Nuno is an interesting case. He doesn't have an amazing playing career but more Journeymen which bodes well for his adaptation. He also has a large amount of experience having coached in Portugal, Spain and now in England, so he knows the league and speaks the language. He has a very likable personality that fans get behind and appreciate. He is very adaptable with his style, he can play counterattacking football , or utilize possession. It all depends on the team he's coaching. At Porto he had a tough time breaking down opponents in a low block but adapted pretty well to it in time. He's against fruitless possession and wants intense creativity. He's versatile in formation, playing a 343,442,433 and so on. His biggest problems come from his lack of experience at a top team, when he has managed a top team he's run into issues. His close connections with Jorge Mendes could also spout issues in acquiring him. At 46 y/o he's entering the perfect age range for a manager. He might not have the experience yet to warrant him taking over but he deserves to be on the shortlist of options. Julien Nagelsmann - RB Leipzig 2023 A potential future managerial icon, Nagelsmann represents the next generation of German coaches. His experience as a manager is pretty decent, having managed top flight football for about 5 years now. He took a Hoffienheim team struggling to stay up, and turned them into a top 4 team in no time. He is able to use youth well on top of get the best out of middling players. At Leipzig not only did is he challenging Bayern for the league but he's continued to turn Leipzig into a competitive European team. Getting them into the Semi's last season in the UCL and this season beating MU to progress into the knockout stages. He's very similar to Klopp, very warm personality but can have fire in his sole, a will to win. His style is similar to Klopp's football now, high pressing, quick vertical passes, counterattacking and using smart possession. He's adapted between a 4222, 343, 352, 4231, and 433. Of all the candidates he's shown to have one of the highest ceilings. His major faults come with his age, at 33 y/o he's had issues keeping a locker room respecting of him in the past. At Leipzig with all the players being younger then him its not an issue, but cant be said for Madrid. His lack of player reputation means he has to have a high managerial reputation, as of now its gaining a lot of momentum but it cant be said its quite there yet. He's yet to manage truly world class players who are winners yet, so its unclear how he'll handle that situation. Language and league adaptation could be an issue as well. Hans-Dieter Flick - Bayern 2023 A manager not many people heard of until he won the treble, Flick has blown up very quickly in the world of football. Whilst as a player he has some reputation, his managerial experience is very large. Having worked in the Bundesliga for a while, carrying different roles at certain club, he really made an impact as key figure in the German NT staff. Once he got his chance for Bayern he took it in stride. Kovac had said Bayern were unable to press and the team looked like it wasn't going to win anything. Flick came in, instilled a system based on pressing, possession, attacking, again very similar to Nagelsmann and Klopp. He then was able to have an historic treble winning season. A lot of comparisons to Heynckes, a former Madrid manager who also won the treble with Bayern. The formation usually used is a 4231. He was able to get unbelievable production out of the team, truly making it one of the best teams in Europe if not the best. He mixes star talent, with youth, and is also able to get a lot out of others. Biggest weakness come in the form of direct club managerial experience, he's blown up quite a lot, Bayern have started to pick up problems here and there and the question is can he handle the pressure of that situation and come out on top. Its also unclear whether he'd want to come to Madrid, as his Bayern career is just a little over a year old. Finally language and league adaptation could be a problem. At 55 y/o he's still at a good age. Antonio Conte - Inter Milan 2022 A very questionable figure, Conte is probably the coach who carries the most baggage. However his CV cant be ignored, good playing reputation that's incredibly bolstered by a long fruitful managerial career. He's shown he can adapt to leagues and be very successful. His style focuses on counter attacking, pressing very reluctantly, playing his favored 352 but able to adapt to a 343 if needed. He's one of the most consistently successful managers on this list. And at 51 y/o he's at a great age. His downfalls make him a questionable option however, though he has cup and league success, he's been very unimpressive in the UCL. He's known to have issues with the board and cause drama. Usually he is a very short term manager, able to bring success but isn't a long lasting choice. His utilization of youth is few, and he often has clashes. However give him a good team and hell run with it, potentially isn't the right fit for Madrid now. Marco Rose - Borussia Mönchengladbach 2022 Another exciting name out of Germany. Rose is a manager gaining a lot of attention for his play style and how he's turned Gladbach into consistent European qualifying team. He has a very uplifting personality and clearly knows how to make connections with his players and fans. His time at Salzburg saw some very impressive results, even against their German parent club. Whilst he doesn't have the most renowned playing CV his managerial reputation is growing very quickly. Garnering interest from Dortmund. His style is similar to Hassanhuttl, energetic press with emphasis on counter attacking or intense vertical passes. He's done well to use youth and turn middling player into a strong team. He usually plays a 4231/4312. Madrid fans will know ho interesting his side can play. He's known to be very tactically astute along wit his staff. Biggest issues come from how'd he adapt, as well as if this is too big of a step up, which it seems like it is. At 44 y/o he's at that very good age. But he is a manager to keep an eye on. Gennaro Gattuso - Napoli 2021 Gattuso is a household name of a player, known for being a rough personality, he also tends to be very good with how he manages players. He seems to be one of the better man managers available. He was one of the best managers Milan has had in many years, making them look like a functional team, now at Napoli he's doing pretty good as well, even managing an Italian cup victory last season. His managerial experience isn't much however he seems to do well with big personalities. His style of play is possession focused however its more flexible and simplified, he prioritizes hard work above anything else. Playing mainly a 433, he likes a very physically imposing striker with all round ability. At 43 y/o he's beginning to enter a good age range for management. However his lack of experience is worrying, only having 3-4 years of top flight experience. His own kind of personality could potentially have problems with the board or certain players. Even issues with fans if pressure hits him hard enough. However he looks to be available at the end of the season at the time of writing. Simone Inzaghi - Lazio 2021 Another manager with little experience in management and not the biggest playing CV in relation to Madrid standards. Inzaghi has done very well with his first top flight job, managing Lazio for almost 5 seasons now he's done some very impressive work, turning them into consistent Europa League qualifying team, now potentially a consistent UCL qualifying team. Inzaghi is an outside shout but never-the-less should be on the shortlist. His preferred formation is a 352, very adaptable style, his team are known to change between a high intense press and a more conservative mid press. His teams know also how to alter between possession and counter attacking football. Inzaghi has gotten the best out of questionable players like Immobile, Luis Alberto and Correa, whilst also turning others in to highly acclaimed stars like SMS. He has won a lot of trophies, though not the most impressive (Super Copas and a Copa) its trophies none-the-less. His major pitfalls come with his reputation maybe not being high enough, his playstyle being called a bit boring at times as well as its reliance on particularly high quality players. At 44 he's entering a good age rang for coaches. Adaptation could also be an issue on top of patience from the board and fans given his playstyle and pedigree. Joachim Low - German NT 2022 A manager with probably the largest managing CV of anyone, surely making up for any potential shortcomings in playing. Low has really garnered a lot of praise, but more recently there are question marks over his time in Germany, with his time seemingly coming to an end soon after around 15 years of managing the team. National team tactics don't usually translate well into club tactics and vice versa, so its unclear how he'd exactly want to play, but he's a very adaptable manger playing many different formations in the past. His only real downfalls come from how'd he adapt to club football, as well as the language. He's had issues with the German NT recently with his decision to cut out more older players, even if they are performing miles ahead of youth. Its unclear how that'd work for Madrid but it could be either a good thing or a bad one depending on personnel. At 60 he's beginning to potentially age out, but he should definitely be up for consideration. Gian Piero Gasperini - Atalanta 2022 Another manager whose been making waves in football with his Atalanta side. Gasperini is one of the oldest managers on this list at 62 y/o with plenty of managerial experience, a potential positive but also negative. His team is one of the most breathtaking attacking units in world football, competing with the likes of City and Liverpool for goals and shots. He's turned a relegation battling team into consistent European qualifying team, whilst also producing the most of Italy's national team players as well as other promising youth players. His style revolves around a 343/3412/3421, high pressing football built around transition using the wings as a big point of attack. There is also a degree of freedom given to certain attackers like Illicic and Gomez, allowing them to move around and create space. Every player seems to be heavily involved in attack in some way. Biggest issues is Atalanta are known for scoring a lot but have also had there fair share of conceding a lot of goals. Madrid can see more of how they play in the upcoming matchup. Gasperini wasn't too great at other top clubs he's managed so its unclear whether there could be an issue there. Language barrier is a potential problem on top of his age as at 62 y/o he's beginning to age out. He's definitely a gamble but one very much worth taking given the impact he's made. Massimiliano Allegri - FREE A manager whose been out of management longer then expected, Allegri has a very large CV of managing top clubs on top of winning a lot and being very competitive. Of all the managers on this list, he's one of the most highly decorated. His style is a bit more conservative in defense, however it can be very entertaining in attack. Very much about adaptation, given his use of many different systems. He's a winning mentality kind of manager. Potentially this is his downfall, any other point for Madrid he would've been a perfect acquisition But during a transition where the club needs to build itself up and figure out all of its pieces, it doesn't seem like the right time for Allegri. At 53 y/o he's at a fine age, but language could be an issue. Given his availability, despite his potential issues with boring football and being more about winning then building, he might be worth acquiring if he can get this side and certain players firing. Maurizio Sarri - FREE A name most probably don't fancy at Madrid, he's definitely someone who does deserve a spot on the shortlist. Known for making his way up the footballing pyramid, he definitely doesn't have the playing pedigree, however his large managerial pedigree on top of his trophy cabinet might make up for potential issues. Preferring to play a 433 or a 4312, Sarri is all about possession and positional play, on top of organized pressing. His Napoli team played some of the most attractive football in the world, and saw many players grow in reputation. However it became clear that to play his brand of football effectively, a lot of time is needed to fully integrate the system. Despite this issue he was still successful at Chelsea, and mediocre at Juve. His shortcomings are clear, his potential issues in play style will definitely detour his acquisition, but if Madrid are in a rebuild this might be a smart play to get him if certain amount of time is afforded. However his biggest downfalls come in his handling of the team, which didn't come off well at Chelsea and Juve, Language is an issue, smoking could be a problem, at 62 y/o he's beginning to age out as well. He definitely deserves a place on the shortlist but his potential pitfalls make him a questionable candidate. Marcelo Gallardo - River Plate 2021 A big manager in Argentina and South America in general, Gallardo really started making global waves when he was heavily linked to Barcelona. Having a pretty ok playing CV in relation to Madrid, he really has made big waves in coaching with 13 cup wins (including 2 Copa Libertadores) in his 10 years of management. Preferring to play a 433/4231/4312 he's mainly about possession, pressing and counter attacking football, he is very similar to Naglesmann Vertical attacking football. Considered one of the best managers to come out of South America, and specifically Argentina. He's definitely earned a high reputation, but its unclear ow well it can translate to European football ,especially to a world sized club that Madrid is. This is on of his major shortcomings, along with potential issues in how his reputations fully translates to European football. However he's at a good age (45 y/o), knows the language, and could potentially work well with Madrid's south American talent. A big contender for the job. Raul - Castilla A manager with one of the largest playing CV's for Madrid if not the largest on this list, Raul is a true legend in Madrid, and knowing football nowadays, that's a near guarantee of getting the job. Though he doesn't have anywhere near the other candidates kind of top flight experience hes done well with Castilla's. His tactical approach isn't too clear to see due to the team he is competing with, however is appears he likes a 4231/433. He has often talked about professionalism and hard work being cornerstones of his philosophy, which isn't surprising for a manger to say. He himself has suggested he needs more experience. That's his main gripes, his lack of experience may make this a gamble not worth taking at this point in time, if Zidane is sacked mid way then potentially, but come the end of the season, it doesn't seem like a good time for Raul. At 43 y/o he's beginning to enter a good managerial age, he obviously knows the club and league, and will surely introduce youth to the forefront of Madrid. Given the nature of legends taking managerial roles, he definitely deserves a shout, but it may be too soon for a Raul, and Madrid don't want to make a mistake in giving a legend the job too soon when its not necessary. Guti- FREE Another highly acclaimed player, Guti is a Madrid legend, potentially making up for his lack of managerial experience. In Madrid's youth setup he did fairly well, before making his way as Besiktas assistant but subsequently got the sacking along with the manager after a season. He then got a big break with a managerial role in Spain's second division. He was also subsequently sacked after 22 games in charge after failing to get Almeria promoted, finishing in a qualification spot but failing against Girona who lost to Elche. As of now he's out of a job. His style of play isn't too known, the way he setup Almeria isn't indicative too much of how he'd set up Madrid. So its a bit unclear. Potentially a 433/4231/4141. He did improve Almeria's placement in the league, but its been suggested that Almeria's board are very quick to sack managers who don't offer immediate success. Its unclear how he'd do at Madrid, in a similar case to Raul, potentially coming in halfway through the season makes more sense then coming in during the summer. Though it might be unfair, his unimpressive managerial career definitely will hurt him in the consideration process for now. He's at a good age and knows the league, but unless Zidane gets the midseason sack, it doesn't seem like its the right time to rush Guti into this position. Needs a bit more experience, but given his status he will be on the shortlist.
Shortlist Rankings
TOP 5 (summer)
Klopp
Gallardo
Naglesmann
Gasperini
Flick
Allegri, Erik Ten Hag, Low, Sarri, Inzaghi, Gattuso,
I think Klopp is obviously the most anticipated choice, whether he wants to come, and we can afford to acquire him is still very unknown, however he ticks all the boxes of being suited to Madrid. Gallardo is soon to be available, his pedigree is there, and whilst its a gamble, it seems one very well worth taking at this point in time. Why not Naglesmann? His lack of reputation and experience is very worrying, I see him as a very great manager in the future but Madrid seems like too big of a step up similar to Raul and Guti. Though I still consider him third choice as maybe his ability to manage (especially given Madrid's changing environment) might see him overcome this issues. I put Gasperini in at 4th as he very much seems to suit the short term option that excites and build the team, though I can easily see people wanting Flick as 4th choice given what he's done with Bayern in such a short time, however I think he needs to show a bit more with Bayern before making that jump. He's still an impressive manager though and I think he'd be a better choice then the 6th ranked, who are managers that don't make the final five but are definitely in consideration. Outside shouts in no particular order are Guti, Raul, Hassenhutle, Nuno, Ole, Rose and Conte. They all didn't make the cut, either because they were of lower quality, need a built more time to manifest, or might have issues with board and players on a big level (Conte). Top 5 (now)
Guti
Raul
Gallardo
Allegri
Sarri
Nuno, Low, Inzaghi, EtH, Gattuso, Rose
Guti is available to take the helm for a short period of time, its better then Raul whose job at Castilla just began and it could cause issues in trying to plug those holes so rapidly. However he is still second best short term immediate option. Gallardo is third because his contract ends this at the end of the year, meaning he'd cost very little to bring in, as well as River Plates season is ending soon so there would be a big issue for him leaving for Madrid. However if Madrid want him to be the longer term manager bringing him in so soon could be unfair or problematic, with certain expectations and other preconceived notions occurring before he's had a fair summer to integrate with the team. Allegri is fourth, which would be considered strange given he's available for free, however this isn't the right time for him in Madrid. He'd want assurances that cant be given if you come in halfway through the season, especially given his nature as a coach. Sarri is fifth, another manager available for a free, he is fantastic however his handling of players could see problems emerging, he also needs usually a while to implement his style, so halfway through the season doesn't seem too wise but for free its a good gamble given his reputation. The 6th placed are composed of managers outside the top 5 consideration because its either unclear if they'd want to come in at this point, or aren't the right fits for this position at this point in time in comparison to the other candidates. Outside shouts include in no particular order Klopp, Naglesmann, Hassenhutle, Ole, Conte, Gasperini and Flick. Most if not all of these managers probably wont come in halfway through the season and/or they'd be too expensive for a midseason manager.
Conclusion
What do you guys think? It seems almost certain Zidane is going to lose his job, whenever a manager loses the locker room they almost certainly lose there job unless a miracle happens, which can very certainly be a possibility but its very unlikely. This paper is to help open a general discussion about management and who you guys have for your shortlist. As it stands it seems Madrid are heavily looking at Gallardo and Naglesmann but the situations are all very complicated so who knows who can potentially get the job. This isn't meant to diss Zidane in any way but to merely open up the conversation, because as it stands, the seat will be open either soon (depending on results) or in the summer.
Top 10 Gambling Cities in the World in 2020 Published on January 22, 2020 at 3:03 pm by Insider Monkey Staff in News Share Tweet Email Top 10 Gambling Cities in the World ― If you love traveling around the world, I am sure you know most of these places well. There are so many cities to travel to. But one travel destination in particular is for gambling or casino purposes. This has been a motivation for people to go to other countries. Top 10 Best Gambling Cities in the World. Gambling is a historic event which dates back to the Paleolithic period. It has evolved over the years to be a major international commercial activity that attracts tourist from all around the world. The governments have imposed jurisdictions to control gambling by licensing it to vendors. Top 10 Gambling Cities In The World RTP. by Rajeshwari Sen March 8, 2017, 6:18 am. 0. SHARES. Share Tweet. Gambling is more like a continuous, conscious trap offered by five star instalments who give good food, shopping arenas and a 20 percent chance of winning the money you just offered on your poison. Top 10 Gambling Cities Around the World. Posted on March 19, 2019 by hunt4hotel. The one thing about gambling that everybody agrees upon is just how universal this hobby is. In the biggest part of the modern world, there are luxurious casinos that pamper gamblers from all around the globe. Top 10 Gambling Cities Around The World. August 8, 2019; Torrance; 0 Comments; Gambling is a risky business, and that is no joke, and you can only go ahead with it if you have enough money to let go. If you are interested in gambling and are sensible about it, here are ten gambling cities with a great casino to help you enjoy yourself. List of the Biggest Gambling Cities in the World. Many people – punters and regulars – have heard of top gambling cities such as Las Vegas. In fact, the very first thought that comes rushing in our brains when we hear its name is indeed casino paradise. Let’s profile the top 10 gambling cities in the world, in one of which you might get lucky enough to hit the jackpot. 10 San Jose, Costa Rica. Via wikipedia.org. Costa Rica isn’t even on most people’s radar when they think of gambling, but the capital city of San José can definitely hold its own. TOP 10 Gambling cities in the world. News. by Casino Expert. 2 years ago 2 7429. Many people like to spend some time in a Casino while they’re on their holiday. Many places around the world allow gambling and host casinos, but not all of them are worth your time. Ranking the top 10 famous gambling cities in the world we have: 10. Paradise Island, Bahamas. Bahamas all the way! As appalling as it is, this island is not only famous for it’s beach paradise and a dive in the blue waves but also its night life of action on the slots.
